Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[Montecfo]

TMC new hospitalizations flat/declining

TMC hospitalization rate has continued to be flat to declining, even as positivity rate is over 20%.

It appears the cases being found may be of the less serious variety. Of course, it could also mean a new surge in ICU admissions is coming.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-daily-new-covid-19-hospitalizations/

 

[audreyh1]

I guarantee you that the US is doing a lot more testing then the EU. The graph is very misleading as to the fact that the US has done more testing, therefore, has found more asymptomatic cases. I'm not saying it's not bad here but if you test more people, it makes sense you'll find more cases.

Europe has been extremely aggressive in terms of testing, especially early on, and even more importantly with contact tracing, which allows them to identify and contain small localized outbreaks before they get out of hand. The US is really struggling with contact tracing, let alone containment.

If the US positivity rate had continued to decline, then you could attribute the surge in cases to simply more testing, but the positivity has increased dramatically over the past month. A much higher positivity rate means you aren’t, in fact, doing enough testing!
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/usa

 

[ivinsfan]

I'd love to see data arranged to show % of positive tests worldwide.

And the number of people in this country who think it's a "nothing" crises is pretty small.

This "young" people demographic that we keep hearing about make dumb decisions about a lot things every day. At least the ones I know do. It's call lack of maturity.

 

[eytonxav]

Relative to masks, if my memory is correct, the early advice from medical experts, despite the shortage of PPE (eg N95 masks), conveyed that airborne transmission was not deemed the primary transmission vector and therefore they never advocated mask usage for the general populace. I am not sure whether that thinking was from a concern about the public consuming masks needed by our medical/first responder community given the limited supply or that they believed transmission was occurring more from contact with infected surfaces. From my layman's perspective, I would think for a virus that spread as rapidly as this one early on, it should have been obvious that airborne transmission was the most likely mode of transmission vs touching a surface. If it were primarily transmitted via surfaces I cannot imagine it would have replicated so quickly and could have been more easily halted.

The messaging on masks certainly has contributed to where we are as well as the younger folks thinking they are invulnerable and also some states skipping over the original reopening guidelines including bad behavior by the younger folks, but considering how livelihoods were being destroyed during the lockdown, should we really be all that surprised. Nevertheless, using a mask should be a no-brainer for everyone, so the resistance makes no sense to me and the compliance from many Texan's, as well as those in some other states, has been disappointing. Why are european and asian countries more disciplined than here in the US? That said, my belief on the virus is that both dealing with the virus using best practices while waiting for better therapeutics and a vaccine and not killing economy/education system are not mutually exclusive things, and neither can be minimized.

 

[spncity]

You think maybe the "waffling" was (at least in part) because you couldn't get any masks when they were saying that? And what masks were available were going to medical personnel.

You nailed most of it. I repeat from an early covid times thread:

I have not seen a better historical summary about the ever-changing early “guidance” from health departments and the CDC regarding masks and who should wear them than this statement: “First the peasants were told masks were ineffective. This was because the Kingdom had no masks, not even enough for first responders. After a month or so of viral spread, mask supplies became more available and it was suddenly determined they were vital to slowing the spread.”

The masks were going to hospitals and first responders (which were needed, of course) but no masks were going to nursing homes. The supply chain was breaking and they were on their own scrounging for and re-using PPE for months. This was before they had come up with ways to sanitize masks, though that is typically done in hospitals that have more resources and volume. To this day, many nursing homes still have a two-week supply at best because the suppliers don't have enough for them to build up a an emergency supply.

 

[MichaelB]

Hopefully we can move past mask history and discuss more current COVID news and issues.

 

[Boose]

Rodi, in my neighborhood, which I believe is south of you, there's outdoor dining with young people drinking margaritas and sitting <2 feet apart in groups of 4 or more - obviously not all household members. And I can hear parties going on every weekend. I'm not at all surprised that there is a surge among twentysomethings, and I am not interested in my County workplace opening to the public until everyone agrees to play by the rules!

 

[Chuckanut]

Common sense... I like that. And what do they say about it?

Though one must admit that waffling experts didn't help in the beginning.

Agreed. The waffling did not help. I clearly remember trying to find masks until I heard experts telling me they did not do much unless they were N95 masks, and those were limited to health care workers. So, I quit trying find them.

But, people do not want another shutdown with all its attendant problems: unemployment, closed schools, no travel, lack of human contact, etc. If wearing a mask and other precautions might help turn big problems into a minor inconvenience, they will do it. I saw a t-shirt the other day with a cartoon of a tough looking sheep wearing a mask. Underneath it said "Lambo fights back".

 

[rodi]

Rodi, in my neighborhood, which I believe is south of you, there's outdoor dining with young people drinking margaritas and sitting <2 feet apart in groups of 4 or more - obviously not all household members. And I can hear parties going on every weekend. I'm not at all surprised that there is a surge among twentysomethings, and I am not interested in my County workplace opening to the public until everyone agrees to play by the rules!

I'm in northern San Diego just east of la Jolla The beach communities, especially Pacific Beach, mission beach, and OB are exactly as you describe. My walks are a combination of my neighborhood which has a corridor with pinch points where the street has traffic and the sidewalks are bound by walls or landscaping that doesn't allow jumping off the sidewalk. With other walkers only 50% compliant with masks I absolutely feel I need a mask. At the beach I go early, but even so I have to wear a mask at some points where the kayaks and swimmers congregate. If I start at 7am or later I have to wear a mask the entire walk because of walkers, runners etc making the 6' rule challenging. Like I said, I feel like I'm the frog in the old video game frogger. I try to go towards dawn to about the crowds.

 

[Midpack]

Too soon to draw conclusions, but I just hope we've turned the finally turned the corner after our Gov made face masks mostly mandatory in public. I don't put much stock in cases, but I do in hospitalizations. Thankfully most businesses have posted signs saying masks required to enter, and some/many try to enforce mask wearing and distancing. It's a simple step we can all take to reduce the spread - hopefully people will continue to comply (mostly) so we don't have to go backwards on reopening. NC hasn't been the best, but not the worst either, fingers crossed.

 

[pj.mask]

Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas!

We don’t wear masks on our neighborhood walks but frequently walk in the street (not a lot of people or cars). I see people wearing masks but it is easy enough for them or us to cross the street (we’re out for a walk, how can walking 10’ more be an issue?) if someone is coming. Masks or not, we would still not get within 10ft if anyone.

We haven’t been to the parks in a while due to the heat but when we did, also no masks but we do NOT go on the paved/populated areas. Last park we went to had a crowded walking path around the perimeter and a water retention interior (20 acres, zero people) we spent the whole time exploring in the grass and timed entry/exit to not cross paths with people.

Curious as to people’s opinions on our behavior. Usually me and 2 small kids under 5.

I though the earlier comments on masks were clarified by Fauci saying we didn’t have supply so said not to? I’ll look for link

I remember the press conference. It sounded to me at the time like the knew it was beneficial and stores were still getting N95 in stock at the time...

https://thehill.com/changing-americ...fauci-why-the-public-wasnt-told-to-wear-masks

 

[candrew]

A bit of good news in AZ

Hospital numbers continue to show a slight decline as Arizona reported 1,559 new COVID-19 cases and 23 more known deaths on Monday.

Inpatient hospitalizations, ICU beds in use and emergency department visits by suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients all continued slight decreases from days prior. Ventilators in use stayed at the same level on Saturday and Sunday but dropped from last week, according to Sunday's hospital data reported to the state.

Public health experts have begun to notice signs Arizona's COVID-19 outbreak may be moderating, but more time is needed to know for sure.



The trend line showing a decline in new cases and reports of lower hospitalizations appear to coincide somewhat with orders issued on June 19th by many AZ counties and municipalities that were designed to mitigate community spread (wearing certain facial coverings, closing gyms, bars and limiting the size of public gatherings). Past experience has demonstrated that it's far too early to declare a taming of community spread, however, this is a bit of good news.

 

[RAE]

We don’t wear masks on our neighborhood walks but frequently walk in the street (not a lot of people or cars). I see people wearing masks but it is easy enough for them or us to cross the street (we’re out for a walk, how can walking 10’ more be an issue?) if someone is coming. Masks or not, we would still not get within 10ft if anyone.

We haven’t been to the parks in a while due to the heat but when we did, also no masks but we do NOT go on the paved/populated areas. Last park we went to had a crowded walking path around the perimeter and a water retention interior (20 acres, zero people) we spent the whole time exploring in the grass and timed entry/exit to not cross paths with people.

Curious as to people’s opinions on our behavior. Usually me and 2 small kids under 5.

Based on the current state of knowledge about how the virus is transmitted, I'd say that what you are doing is fine - very low risk. Most of the transmission occurs indoors, although outdoor transmission is certainly possible if you are among a crowd of people, and especially if you stay within that crowd for a while.

I live in a very rural area, and I have not worn a mask outdoors, for the most part. I almost never get within 10 feet of another person when I am outdoors, and I am usually moving also, so I'm not too concerned about it.

I do wear a mask when I go indoors.

 

[ivinsfan]

Hopefully we can move past mask history and discuss more current COVID news and issues.

This was 8 or 9 posts and 50% of the following posts mention the M word..

I'm thinking about sending all the mods a case of booze...

 

[PatrickA5]

This was 8 or 9 posts and 50% of the following posts mention the M word..

I'm thinking about sending all the mods a case of booze...

I think we're past the point of masks being political. At least I'd hope very few people still think that way. My town enacted a mask mandate last week. It's slowly catching on. Still probably only 50% compliant.

 

[harllee]

Too soon to draw conclusions, but I just hope we've turned the finally turned the corner after our Gov made face masks mostly mandatory in public. I don't put much stock in cases, but I do in hospitalizations. Thankfully most businesses have posted signs saying masks required to enter, and some/many try to enforce mask wearing and distancing. It's a simple step we can all take to reduce the spread - hopefully people will continue to comply (mostly) so we don't have to go backwards on reopening. NC hasn't been the best, but not the worst either, fingers crossed.

I hope the NC trend on hospitalizations stays true. I have noticed Mondays are usually down as not all hospitals report in on Sunday so tomorrow should give us a more accurate read on NC hospitalizations. I am now in my mountain cabin in the NC mountains--there are fewer cases here--but many people are not following the Governor's mandate. With all the Florida cars coming in to the NC mountains since July 1 I expect cases and hospitalizations to increase here soon.

 

[audreyh1]

Hidalgo County just issued a Shelter-at-home order effective Wednesday. Essential business only.

Boy, we got out of there just in time!

 

[bmcgonig]

Here is a very interesting video from UCSF discussion about the virus where an epidemiologist makes the case that masks can also protect the wearer. The whole video is interesting, but the part I'm referring to starts at about the 30min marker and runs 10min approx. The guy that runs this discussion every week is the chair of the UCSF dept of medicine.

Fundamentally her thesis is that mask wearing will lessen the viral load in your immediate vicinity, probably lead to a much lighter or asymptomatic infection, and probably confer immunity.

Nothing in the video is political in any way.


https://youtu.be/Cio3rh6ta3w

 

[audreyh1]

To me consistently wearing PPE when out around others has always been about reducing viral load exposure, because I came to believe early on that lower exposure meant a less bad outcome if infected.

 

[CDRE]

Here is a very interesting video from UCSF discussion about the virus where an epidemiologist makes the case that masks can also protect the wearer. The whole video is interesting, but the part I'm referring to starts at about the 30min marker and runs 10min approx. The guy that runs this discussion every week is the chair of the UCSF dept of medicine.

Fundamentally her thesis is that mask wearing will lessen the viral load in your immediate vicinity, probably lead to a much lighter or asymptomatic infection, and probably confer immunity.

Nothing in the video is political in any way.


https://youtu.be/Cio3rh6ta3w

+1 Thanks for sharing.

 

[Fermion]

Agreed. The waffling did not help. I clearly remember trying to find masks until I heard experts telling me they did not do much unless they were N95 masks, and those were limited to health care workers. So, I quit trying find them.

But, people do not want another shutdown with all its attendant problems: unemployment, closed schools, no travel, lack of human contact, etc. If wearing a mask and other precautions might help turn big problems into a minor inconvenience, they will do it. I saw a t-shirt the other day with a cartoon of a tough looking sheep wearing a mask. Underneath it said "Lambo fights back".

I went back and reviewed our discussions on masks in March of this year and there were comments like

"The experts disagree and say if you are not used to wearing a mask, you are way more likely to be touching it and adjusting it and increasing your possible exposure to virus."

So there was a lot of anti-mask stuff being put out there by the health care professionals

 

[Aerides]

I went back and reviewed our discussions on masks in March of this year and there were comments like

"The experts disagree and say if you are not used to wearing a mask, you are way more likely to be touching it and adjusting it and increasing your possible exposure to virus."

So there was a lot of anti-mask stuff being put out there by the health care professionals

Yes, In March - less than 60 days into covid becoming a probable "thing" here. History. I can probably find a lot of other ideas we've since abandoned as we've learned more about the virus.

Here we are another 120 days forward from March. So let's please move on from what we knew then to what we know now, and keep this thread in focus.

 

[Midpack]

Yes, In March - less than 60 days into covid becoming a probable "thing" here. History. I can probably find a lot of other ideas we've since abandoned as we've learned more about the virus.

Here we are another 120 days forward from March. So let's please move on from what we knew then to what we know now, and keep this thread in focus.

+1. Who cares what anyone thought then, when everyone was searching for answers to something no one has seen before? Some people find joy in finding ANY fault with an expert, to discredit them.

 

[ivinsfan]

Can we just quit talking about masks period. For heaven's sake. I want to read news updates on case numbers not mask c$%p.

It's looking like things might be topping off in a few hard hit states, but those weekend numbers sometimes give you false hope.

I think more stay at home might be coming. we had a stay at home in our state MN for over six weeks in March/April.

 

[MichaelB]

Back on topic. The Financial Times reported this morning a senior exec at Quest Diagnostics has confirmed testing capacity will not meet needs by the fall when the new flu season takes off.

The largest laboratory company in the US has warned it will be impossible to increase coronavirus testing capacity to cope with demand during the autumn flu season, in a sign that crippling delays will continue to hamper the US response to the pandemic. Link, may be behind paywall https://app.ft.com/content/4c9b4ae0-0559-4fe2-8806-53c6a8e3ab3a

James Davis, executive vice-president of general diagnostics at Quest Diagnostics, said “other solutions need to be found” to detect positive patients in addition to the nasal swab tests currently in use.