Some reputable epidemiologists (I can't recall who) said that COVID-19 will never go away completely, and we'll have seasonal increases, regardless of masking, precautions, and even vaccinations. The R-naught number is just too high with this one (it's too easy to spread via aerosols, droplets, and touched surfaces), to expect herd immunity to offer much protection, even with vaccinations, IMHO. In CDC studies of COVID-19 transmissions on an airplane filled with N95-masked customers, one sick person made his way onto the plane, and he managed to apparently transmit this to one other passenger, possibly via a restroom on board that both customers used.
My best guess is that at the end of 2021, when most sources believe vaccines will be available for 'all' (in the US), we'll have this down to a much lower infection and death rate. But with ~37-38K new cases in the US daily for the past two days, we're no where close to controlling this. In the end, ~30% of Americans won't take the vaccine, so any immunity they obtain will have to be through infection. Since kids appear mostly to be 'asymptomatic spreaders', I predict that once the schools fully return to service, the kids will help infect their elders at a rapid rate.
Since I'm already 54, and already have one pre-existing condition that makes me higher risk, I'm likely never to return to 'the way it was' altogether. Once the number of cases are down to a very low number, I do hope to return to travelling, but will likely end major travels by the time I turn 65, to reduce mortality risk (unless we have a 90%+ effective vaccine or really great treatments that reduce mortality in those at risk). Here's hoping!
