Spreads so easily......

[Alan]

Thank you for the link.

I could be wrong, but I think I read that off my phone app. I have BBC, NBC, CNBC, MSNBC, ABC, CNN, USAToday, NYTimes, CBC and CTV news installed. (I know that's too many. I just skip/hop around.) It was very early on. I haven't read more about it since so I thought the "7 times more transmissible" part was factual (although I thought to myself, "How could it be that contagious? Is it like gas? (there'd be no escaping that!)") If it's only 70% more transmissible, I will so go inside grocery stores!

It has been really big news here, and caused France to close the channel crossing, stranding thousands of trucks with their drivers in England, 6,000+ stacked up waiting to cross, the vast majority being those wanted to get home for the holidays. After a couple of days they agreed to mass testing of the drivers. Thousands have now been allowed to cross once they tested negative.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846

How much faster is it spreading?
It was first detected in September. In November around a quarter of cases in London were the new variant. This reached nearly two-thirds of cases in mid-December.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/12/26/france-detects-first-case-of-new-coronavirus-variant

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...irus-likely-affect-children-claims-study.html

 

[Chuckanut]

It has been really big news here, and caused France to close the channel crossing, stranding thousands of trucks with their drivers in England, 6,000+ stacked up waiting to cross, the vast majority being those wanted to get home for the holidays. After a couple of days they agreed to mass testing of the drivers. Thousands have now been allowed to cross once they tested negative.

Interesting interview I heard today. The good doctor thinks closing boarders may delay spread of the new variant by 2-3 weeks at most. Unless one is on an island in the middle of an ocean (Hawaii?) or has a small boarder guarded by big guys with big guns (DMZ between North and South Korea?) closing boarders is just a delaying tactic. OTOH, the delay means many more vaccinated people.

 

[Popeye]

Interesting interview I heard today. The good doctor thinks closing boarders may delay spread of the new variant by 2-3 weeks at most. Unless one is on an island in the middle of an ocean (Hawaii?) or has a small boarder guarded by big guys with big guns (DMZ between North and South Korea?) closing boarders is just a delaying tactic. OTOH, the delay means many more vaccinated people.

Local news just had a report that the new variant is in Ontario, Canada already.

 

[Sunset]

Local news just had a report that the new variant is in Ontario, Canada already.

And the couple I read about didn't travel, so they caught it via community contact/spreading.

 

[Alan]

Interesting interview I heard today. The good doctor thinks closing boarders may delay spread of the new variant by 2-3 weeks at most. Unless one is on an island in the middle of an ocean (Hawaii?) or has a small boarder guarded by big guys with big guns (DMZ between North and South Korea?) closing boarders is just a delaying tactic. OTOH, the delay means many more vaccinated people.

With the vaccines rolling out then even 2 or 3 weeks delay might be worth it, depending on what other effects it produces on the countries affected. The 2 day delay between the France and England channel crossing has brought in rapid testing of every driver leaving England to France.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-12-26...-their-cabs-after-almost-a-week-of-disruption

Grant Shapps tweeted: “Update on Kent lorry situation: 15,526 #Coronavirus tests now carried out. Just 36 positive results, which are being verified (0.23%). Manston now empty and lorries should no longer head there please."

 

[tmm99]

With the vaccines rolling out then even 2 or 3 weeks delay might be worth it, depending on what other effects it produces on the countries affected. The 2 day delay between the France and England channel crossing has brought in rapid testing of every driver leaving England to France.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-12-26...-their-cabs-after-almost-a-week-of-disruption

My DH's parents live in England (they live on their own and are relatively healthy) and they already received their first vaccine shot. They said their 2nd shot is scheduled for Jan 10 (or maybe they said Jan 5). They're over 80 years old, so maybe that's why they're getting their shots already. The UK started the vaccine distribution very early, so I'm glad that they're being vaccinated already. They didn't notice any bad side-effects. MIL showed us the injection spot on Skype saying it was a little red and sore. And FIL felt a little tired afterwards, but that was about it.

 

[Alan]

My DH's parents live in England (they live on their own and are relatively healthy) and they already received their first vaccine shot. They said their 2nd shot is scheduled for Jan 10 (or maybe they said Jan 5). They're over 80 years old, so maybe that's why they're getting their shots already. The UK started the vaccine distribution very early, so I'm glad that they're being vaccinated already.

That is good to hear. So far the only folks we personally know who have received shots have been either front line health workers or over 80. In fact we know someone in his early 80’s who had his first shot today (Sunday after Christmas).

The semi-official target stated by the health minister is to have all people over 65 vaccinated by Easter (April 4th). Plans are in place to start the rollout of the Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine by Jan 4th, as its approval is expected by then.

The UK has pre-ordered enough vaccine doses from 7 manufacturers to vaccinate the population 5 times over if they all get approved.

 

[tmm99]

That is good to hear. So far the only folks we personally know who have received shots have been either front line health workers or over 80. In fact we know someone in his early 80’s who had his first shot today (Sunday after Christmas).

The semi-official target stated by the health minister is to have all people over 65 vaccinated by Easter (April 4th). Plans are in place to start the rollout of the Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine by Jan 4th, as its approval is expected by then.

The UK has pre-ordered enough vaccine doses from 7 manufacturers to vaccinate the population 5 times over.

Nice. It sounds like a pretty aggressive schedule. We live in Canada and they seem to be struggling to procure vaccines in large quantities (now Moderna has been approved as well).

 

[Alan]

Nice. It sounds like a pretty aggressive schedule. We live in Canada and they seem to be struggling to procure vaccines in large numbers (now Moderna has been approved as well).

I believe it is based on 1m shots per week with a 70% take-up of those offered the vaccine.

 

[sengsational]

I wonder how it was discovered that this strain is more transmissible? The strain was first identified in the UK. In the UK did they discover this strain was more transmissible by contact tracing? Did they find that each person infected with this strain infected more people than other strains? If a person with this strain talks or sneezes or coughs do the droplets carry more virus? Can this strain penetrate masks more easily?

From what I've been able to gather, it's an informal observation that was made in London, I guess, that made headlines, and has taken on a life of it's own. There may be some truth to it, but there's a lot of moving parts, obviously, because it involves how huge groups of people are behaving / interacting. Separating that dynamic from the actual transmission capability difference of the variant (if any) as compared to other variants is a problem that's not been backed-up by data, at least as far as I've seen. The world has seen many surges, and the world has seen a lot of variants. I think we will find out if the variant is more transmissible (this variant and downstream variants start taking over a higher percentage of the cases). But right now, I think it's too early to know.

 

[Leo1277]

Quote:Originally Posted by harllee
I wonder how it was discovered that this strain is more transmissible? The strain was first identified in the UK. In the UK did they discover this strain was more transmissible by contact tracing? Did they find that each person infected with this strain infected more people than other strains? If a person with this strain talks or sneezes or coughs do the droplets carry more virus? Can this strain penetrate masks more easily?

From what I've been able to gather, it's an informal observation that was made in London, I guess, that made headlines, and has taken on a life of it's own. There may be some truth to it, but there's a lot of moving parts, obviously, because it involves how huge groups of people are behaving / interacting. Separating that dynamic from the actual transmission capability difference of the variant (if any) as compared to other variants is a problem that's not been backed-up by data, at least as far as I've seen. The world has seen many surges, and the world has seen a lot of variants. I think we will find out if the variant is more transmissible (this variant and downstream variants start taking over a higher percentage of the cases). But right now, I think it's too early to know.

From what I have read, they just look at the the fraction that this virus makes up in the total case count. It grew from a very small number in the low percents two months ago to now being responsible for about 70%-80% of cases in the London area. If one assumes that the transmission environment for all strains regarding distancing, mask wearing etc is the same (which is generally a good assumption because people don't know which strain they have), that the sampling covers the local population uniformly, and if one considers that the transmission from person A to all (s)he infects takes about a week give or take, then from this one can derive the relative infectiousness of old vs new strain. Here is one source and the respective graph: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...the-new-virus-strain/articleshow/79852111.cms

 

[audreyh1]

We’ll see.....

Neighbors organized a “Street Taco Truck” outside dinner for our neighborhood, and as we drove past the gathering we noticed a looong line for the truck, not distanced, most masked, but plenty unmasked, lots of facing each other and chatting while standing in line, and people passing down the line to visit others in line. Meanwhile poolside area had tables packed. I supposed the tables might have been properly distanced, but I don’t think people were.

Sorry - Mrs. Kravitz strikes again.

 

[harllee]

On the news tonight they were discussing the new more infectious strain of the virus in the UK. It appears that this strain is affecting more children--there has been an uptick in the Covid hospitalizations among children in the UK.

 

[GenXguy]

On the news tonight they were discussing the new more infectious strain of the virus in the UK. It appears that this strain is affecting more children--there has been an uptick in the Covid hospitalizations among children in the UK.

I'm much more concerned about the South African variant. It also appears to spread more easily, but it has more mutations including multiple mutations to the spike protein targeted by antibodies resulting from immunization. And therefore, there's a greater concern from experts about the vaccine's effectiveness on the strain than there is with the U.K. variant. Prof Francois Balloon from University College London, said: "The E484K mutation has been shown to reduce antibody recognition. As such, it helps the virus SARS-CoV-2 to bypass immune protection provided by prior infection or vaccination."

Nothing is certain at this point, and testing is being done.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-new-strain-south-africa/

https://news.trust.org/item/20210104140005-hnx99

 

[ivinsfan]

I'm much more concerned about the South African variant at this point. It also appears to spread more easily, and it has more mutations including multiple mutations to the spike protein targeted by antibodies resulting from immunization. And therefore, there's a greater concern from experts about the vaccine's effectiveness on the strain.

Nothing is certain at this point, and testing is being done.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-new-strain-south-africa/

https://news.trust.org/item/20210104140005-hnx99

Those of you waiting to resume unhindered international travel
might have a longer wait then you imagined...

 

[Alan]

England has gone into an even tougher countrywide lockdown, all schools closed and now an even worse strain emerging in South Africa. I miss 2020 already.

 

[W2R]

England has gone into an even tougher countrywide lockdown, all schools closed and now an even worse strain emerging in South Africa. I miss 2020 already.

I heard about that - - listened to Boris Johnson's speech, and the new lockdown sounds pretty grim. My heart goes out to those under this new lockdown, and I am sure the same is true for all Americans. The lockdown is expected to extend through at least mid-February.

I heard some scary descriptions of the situation in hospitals there, and let's hope the lockdown helps to alleviate that situation as the country proceeds with the vaccination efforts. Apparently the same new (even worse) strain of COVID has appeared in several US states already so we may end up in the same situation as you are in right now.

 

[Alan]

I heard about that - - listened to Boris Johnson's speech, and the new lockdown sounds pretty grim. My heart goes out to those under this new lockdown, and I am sure the same is true for all Americans. The lockdown is expected to extend through at least mid-February.

I heard some scary descriptions of the situation in hospitals there, and let's hope the lockdown helps to alleviate that situation as the country proceeds with the vaccination efforts. Apparently the same new (even worse) strain of COVID has appeared in several US states already so we may end up in the same situation as you are in right now.

This new wave has just exploded in London and the SE and is now spreading quickly to other areas. Our County has had a reasonable infection rate over the past few weeks but has doubled this last week so no one is surprised at this lockdown. It isn't nearly as strict as the lockdown in March & April last year but feels so much worse because it is winter and not spring. Last year we had a beautiful spring and were able to go on long walks with a packed lunch, lots of work to do in the garden etc.

Mid February is the next date for a review of the situation. Even if the vaccinations get to 2m/week it will take until then to get everyone over 70 vaccinated along with Care Homes, the medical vulnerable etc. But even so it takes weeks for the vaccine to build immunity, plus hospitalizations are weeks after infections.

Oh well....

 

[JoeWras]

We’ll see.....

Neighbors organized a “Street Taco Truck” outside dinner for our neighborhood, and as we drove past the gathering we noticed a looong line for the truck, not distanced, most masked, but plenty unmasked, lots of facing each other and chatting while standing in line, and people passing down the line to visit others in line. Meanwhile poolside area had tables packed. I supposed the tables might have been properly distanced, but I don’t think people were.

Sorry - Mrs. Kravitz strikes again.

Ha ha, we're Kravitzing the house for sale on our block. That's what retirees do. We were wondering what the viral load would be in the house if someone followed another infected party even if they were wearing a mask. The action on the house was hot with constant viewings for 3 days.

No debate on masks, we need to wear them, but, I'm hearing a disturbing trend:

"I don't understand, I got it, but I was wearing a mask."
​

These words should not be uttered, yet we heard it a few times over the past weeks from friends or extended family of friends. Our best friends' nieces got it independently. Both are front line workers in my mind. One works in retail, the other as a server in a restaurant. They were very strict in their mask wearing.

Somewhere, the message has gotten warped into wearing a mask gives you a superpower or something. It is not good. These poor girls had no choice. I'm thinking more about other folks who go about doing stupid stuff they don't need to do, because after all, they have a new superpower to protect them.

So yeah, spreads so easily indeed.

 

[Ronstar]

......
No debate on masks, we need to wear them, but, I'm hearing a disturbing trend:

"I don't understand, I got it, but I was wearing a mask."
​

These words should not be uttered, yet we heard it a few times over the past weeks from friends or extended family of friends. Our best friends' nieces got it independently. Both are front line workers in my mind. One works in retail, the other as a server in a restaurant. They were very strict in their mask wearing.

Somewhere, the message has gotten warped into wearing a mask gives you a superpower or something. It is not good. These poor girls had no choice. I'm thinking more about other folks who go about doing stupid stuff they don't need to do, because after all, they have a new superpower to protect them.

So yeah, spreads so easily indeed.

I read an article a while ago - not so much about masks - But about time. Amount of time needed to be spent near an infected person in order to become infected.

This time thing has stuck with me. I not only stay more than 6' away from someone in a store or outside. I try to stay near another person no longer than I have to. I keep moving around to evade people and hopefully that will help prevent me from getting the virus.

That said, I convinced DW to quit her exercise class in November, but now she wants to start up again. I don't understand it.

 

[JoeWras]

I read an article a while ago - not so much about masks - But about time. Amount of time needed to be spent near an infected person in order to become infected.

This time thing has stuck with me. I not only stay more than 6' away from someone in a store or outside. I try to stay near another person no longer than I have to. I keep moving around to evade people and hopefully that will help prevent me from getting the virus.

That said, I convinced DW to quit her exercise class in November, but now she wants to start up again. I don't understand it.

Yeah, pretty much the same, although DW and I have pretty much locked down since mid Nov. She gets curbside pickup. I have gone to Home Depot twice for a project. I darn near run in and out. It is a very big place so I hope the dispersal rate is large. Even so, I ordered a bunch of stuff from Amazon for my next project even though it was large and bulky. I just don't want to get near anyone.

We had to give up swimming. It is too dangerous. At first, the idea of cruising by another swimmer didn't bother me much, especially since most people do freestyle and exhale through the water. This "bong effect" helps.

Then, the water talkers came. These alleged water walkers don't walk. They stand in the lanes and talk to each other, without a mask. And these are people of my generation who should know better. They are the equivalent of the kids hanging out at bars. So, if I'm swimming in a lane next to these bozos, I'm ending up spending too much time near them, as Ronstar mentions. So, we're out.

 

[GenXguy]

Apparently the same new (even worse) strain of COVID has appeared in several US states already so we may end up in the same situation as you are in right now.

The South African one that I was talking about a few posts sounds more concerning, but it's not as widespread, yet anyway.

It has now also been detected in several countries around the world, including the U.K., Switzerland, Finland, Japan, Australia, Zambia, France and South Korea.

https://www.newsweek.com/south-afri...cines-says-top-scientist-shabir-madhi-1558955

 

[garyt]

In regard to the original title of "Spreads so easily", I had the virus in October. I showed symptoms on a Friday night and went for a rapid test Saturday . I tested negative but still believed I had it due to my symptoms and my sister tested positive and I had just seen her. So I tried my best to isolate in our small house for a couple days. I got tested 2 more times and tested negative both times so we went back to living normally including sleeping together.I finally tested positive on the fourth try.
My wife started getting severe headaches and got tested, negative. We just assumed she was positive as we made no real effort to isolate after the first few days. She never went back to get retested.
Fast forward to recently and we both went to get the antibody tests and I have antibodies and she doesn't. Hard to believe for a virus that "spreads so easily".
She also has a friend who had the virus and neither her husband or kids got it. So much we don't know.

 

[Ronstar]

A friend has been having lunch with his son every Sunday. Son came down with Covid. So friend got tested. He tested positive also - no symptoms yet. Friend is retired and is hunkering down at home.

Son works at an Amazon warehouse. Another friend and Amazon worker also has covid. This virus really gets around.

 

[W2R]

In regard to the original title of "Spreads so easily", I had the virus in October. I showed symptoms on a Friday night and went for a rapid test Saturday . I tested negative but still believed I had it due to my symptoms and my sister tested positive and I had just seen her. So I tried my best to isolate in our small house for a couple days. I got tested 2 more times and tested negative both times so we went back to living normally including sleeping together.I finally tested positive on the fourth try.
My wife started getting severe headaches and got tested, negative. We just assumed she was positive as we made no real effort to isolate after the first few days. She never went back to get retested.
Fast forward to recently and we both went to get the antibody tests and I have antibodies and she doesn't. Hard to believe for a virus that "spreads so easily".
She also has a friend who had the virus and neither her husband or kids got it. So much we don't know.

I have read so many anecdotes like this that it is hard to believe that those tests are worth the powder to blow them to H*ll (as the saying goes). Which is not to say that there is no virus or that you were not sick! From what you are saying, it sounds like you were. But it's just got to be terribly aggravating to have such inexplicable test results.

I have not had even a cold since the pandemic began, but if I got a mild to moderate case of COVID I wonder if I would even try to get tested. I guess if someone was very sick, it could help doctors to know what they were dealing with.