Covid Vaccine Distribution

[audreyh1]

I wasn't addressing the declines in January. I am talking about what I think we will see in the US after 50% of the over 65 population is fully vaccinated. Of course have to wait 2 weeks after that and probably another months as deaths in the first month after that probably reflect people who got sick before. So really talking about declines we might expect to see in April and May.

Exactly.

 

[PaunchyPirate]

Our local newspaper here in rural NW Pennsylvania ran an article yesterday that summarized our local hospital's ongoing efforts to vaccinate. I thought this quote was interesting...

"When vaccine shipments first began arriving in mid-December, the state's vaccination plan was to make health care workers a priority. The hospital has about 1,400 employees, but only about half decided to get the vaccine. Vaccine then was provided to other qualifiers at the time — doctors, home health care workers and dental personnel, but again, only about half wanted vaccinations..."

 

[foxfirev5]

Now that my DW and 91 YO DM are vaccinated I breathing a little easier. Not that I'm not continuing to take precautions.
It's tough when your a healthy, fit 64 YO. If I only knew I shouldn't have taken such good care of myself when I ER'd 5 years ago.

 

[JoeWras]

Our local newspaper here in rural NW Pennsylvania ran an article yesterday that summarized our local hospital's ongoing efforts to vaccinate. I thought this quote was interesting...

"When vaccine shipments first began arriving in mid-December, the state's vaccination plan was to make health care workers a priority. The hospital has about 1,400 employees, but only about half decided to get the vaccine. Vaccine then was provided to other qualifiers at the time — doctors, home health care workers and dental personnel, but again, only about half wanted vaccinations..."

One recent quoted estimate in my state was that my group ("everyone else") won't have vaccine availability until May, earliest.

However, my gut feel is that this is wrong. All my friends and acquaintances who were rallying for the vaccine -- including teachers, just this week -- got them very quickly. I suspect it is because of the low uptake. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't open it up much earlier.

But we'll see. My BIL, who is in a remote rural area and over 65, still says he can't get it. I think he just doesn't want to drive or make the effort to go a few miles.

Dr. Gottlieb predicted we'd be going from shortage to pleading to take it. I think we're seeing this playing out now.

 

[Dawg52]

Dr. Gottlieb predicted we'd be going from shortage to pleading to take it. I think we're seeing this playing out now.

I'm hopeful more will be inclined to take it after seeing their friends get vaccinated. I've seen that within my golfing group. But not much you can do with the anti vaccine types. There is a couple in their early 60's living right next door that will never take it. Won't take the flu shot...nothing. I think it has something to do with their religious beliefs.

 

[Gumby]

I don't know if this is behind the paywall, but it is a link to an article in the NY Times about how Connecticut is doing on vaccination and in particular about the mass vaccination site at Rentschler Field. I found it interesting:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/health/covid-vaccine-sites.html

The drive-through mass vaccination site on a defunct airstrip here in East Hartford, outside Connecticut’s capital, shows the promise and the drawbacks of the approach.

Run by a nonprofit health clinic, the site has become one of the state’s largest distributors of shots since it opened six weeks ago, and its efficiency has helped Connecticut become a success story. Only Alaska, New Mexico, West Virginia and the Dakotas have administered more doses per 100,000 residents.

 

[Chuckanut]

Dr. Gottlieb predicted we'd be going from shortage to pleading to take it. I think we're seeing this playing out now.

+1 I agree. I am starting to see the same thing as people who have been unable to get an appointment in the past are now getting their shots. It still looks like a majority of shots at many super clinics will be going to those who need shot number 2. They are clearing the decks for shot #1 people by mid March.

Dr. Gottlieb is like Dr. Fauci. You have to listen carefully to what they actually say. Both use a lot of qualifiers when they make predictions. 10 second sound bites rarely contain the entire message.

IIRC, Dr. G is saying that by May everybody who wants a shot should be able to get it or get an appointment to get it without a big hassle. The key word is 'wants'. As we well know, not everybody wants it. Even in my area - which is very CV prevention compliant - there are folks who just won't bother or don't think it is much of a threat. What can you do? Not much.

 

[RetireBy90]

IIRC, Dr. G is saying that by May everybody who wants a shot should be able to get it or get an appointment to get it without a big hassle. The key word is 'wants'. As we well know, not everybody wants it. Even in my area - which is very CV prevention compliant - there are folks who just won't bother or don't think it is much of a threat. What can you do? Not much.

I also think you have to listen carefully. As a nation we tend to hear that which supports our current thinking and you need to listen with an open mind. DW and I often ask each other “what did you hear from that” and she often gets a different message.

On the take up of vaccinations, I tell her we can control our exposure as we are retired. We do grocery pickup where we never have to leave the car, we can wear a mask, we can decide to visit eateries with outside seating, or none of these. We can and will get vaccinated at earliest opportunity. Bottom line, we can control our exposure points but can’t control others who take less precautions.

 

[Sunset]

I wasn't addressing the declines in January. I am talking about what I think we will see in the US after 50% of the over 65 population is fully vaccinated. Of course have to wait 2 weeks after that and probably another months as deaths in the first month after that probably reflect people who got sick before. So really talking about declines we might expect to see in April and May.

It's going to take until April/May just to vaccinate 50% of the old people in IL, as only 6.06% of eligible people are vaccinated, and the current eligibilty list includes over 6 Million in the State, out of 12.x Million.

 

[explanade]

I was hoping for a continued drop in cases and deaths, too.

Dr. Duc Vuong thinks the recent drop was merely due to cold weather in much of the country thus keeping people at home, along with the "meh" months of January and February that don't have holidays (after NYE) that result in big gatherings. He's predicting that warmer weather will start bringing people out to mix and mingle, plus celebrations due to St. Patrick's and Easter. He's also surmising that seniors, vacationers, and spring breakers in Florida (an area with the more virulent UK variant of Covid) will be carrying that variant home with them, thus spreading it further around the country. He's forecasting that these, along with Covid fatigue (less care in masking, social distancing, less testing, etc.) will result in a fourth wave.

Time will tell.

omni

Interesting as the rise in cases in early November was attributed to cooler weather and people spending more time indoors, particularly gatherings having to be brought indoors due to cold weather. Even though this virus doesn’t go away in hot weather, there does seem to be more of an increase due to cold weather.

I can't remember who it was but one prognostication I read was that we will see cases decline in the summer and people may think it's vaccinations and natural immunity but come the winter, we could see more spikes again, as variants take hold.

And this pattern could hold for several more winters, despite the vaccines.

More than a couple of experts have said that March is going to be worse as the variants spread.

 

[athena53]

Not-so-funny: the pharmacy sponsoring this event is the one DH and I are supposedly listed with....but nobody contacted us.

That's what I've been finding so frustrating- you sign up on a site and then find out when it's too late of an event that should have been one for which they'd contact you- but they didn't.

Someone suggested earlier in the thread that there might be some priority within tiers that would put me lower on the list because I'm 68 and have no health issues but I'm seeing anguished posts on the County Health Department FB site from people in their 70s with serious health conditions who aren't getting contacted, either.

I'm so grateful I had the flexibility to drive to a site 75 miles away for my first one yesterday.

 

[Gumby]

Now that we are eligible as of midnight, I just secured vaccination appointments for the young wife and me for next Saturday and Sunday (Saturday filled up in the approximately one minute between the time I made the first appointment and signed back in to make the second.) Now the website is "busy" and unavailable to reschedule, so we'll just take what we already have and be happy with it. It's only 3 miles away.

 

[NewEnglander]

Just like Gumby we live in CT where 55 and older can now schedule vaccine appointments. We are 59 and 55 . DW and I logged in at midnight last night, luckily I was able to grab an appointment but my DW couldn't in time. She hesitated when choosing a time and they were all gone within 1 minute. I lucked out grabbing a 6pm appointment. Luckily DW was able to get into Yale's system 2 hours later and got an appointment in a couple of weeks. We will get our first dose March 3 and 14 , by mid April we'll have the 2nd!
All systems are bogged down, many friends can't get a first dose appointment until April 30th , others can't even get that. Unless the quantity of vaccines increases substantially it's going to take some time to get everyone vaccinated especially when 45-54 year-olds can schedule on 3/22 , 35-44 YO on 4/12 , 16-34 YO on 5/3.

 

[omni550]

"Covid-19 deaths will most likely never rise quite as precipitously as in the past, and the worst may be behind us. But if Americans let down their guard too soon — many states are already lifting restrictions — and if the variants spread in the United States as they have elsewhere, another spike in cases may well arrive in the coming weeks.

Scientists call it the fourth wave. The new variants mean “we’re essentially facing a pandemic within a pandemic,” said Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/25/health/coronavirus-united-states.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

omni

 

[ITTN]

We had to travel 70 miles but we got them, our second vaccines were Feb 24th. How we got our appointments together was when we spotted an appointment time with multiple openings we logged on separately from two devices for the same appointment time.

 

[kcowan]

Really? Everyone there over 60 can get the Pfizer shot? Or did you get lucky?

Not by appointment but by lineup unless you are infirm so we stood in the sun for a few hours. That is how they do it in Mexico.

 

[twaddle]

@RockyMtn you're a walking experiment. I'm surprised they didn't give you a blood test to check your antibody titer at least.

You may have better protection than most.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00315-5

 

[zinger1457]

AZ just made everyone +55 eligible for the vaccine, was able to snag an appointment at the Safeway pharmacy for my first shot tomorrow.

 

[iloveyoga]

AZ just made everyone +55 eligible for the vaccine, was able to snag an appointment at the Safeway pharmacy for my first shot tomorrow.

I sure wish Iowa would do that!

 

[sengsational]

AZ just made everyone +55 eligible for the vaccine, was able to snag an appointment at the Safeway pharmacy for my first shot tomorrow.

That's a big win for you! Excellent.

That gets me wondering whether NC will have such a policy (I'm totally uninformed about such things because I was going to wait to be told by Novant that "it's time").

I "registered" on the Novant portal, so I presume they'd contact me when "it's time", but if I can jump on a grocery or pharmacy site and snag an appointment, I'd do it.

I wonder if our resident NC vaccination sleuth has heard anything.

 

[Koolau]

Not by appointment but by lineup unless you are infirm so we stood in the sun for a few hours. That is how they do it in Mexico.

Here, we do it the "proper" way. We have to make appointments and hope they don't run out. Also, we have to hope that no new group (with the appropriate power) decides they are now "front line" workers - pushing the old/infirm back a month or two. BUT, again, I'm not bitter.

 

[MrsHaloFIRE]

I think I saw SC went to age 55 today. Care for a road trip?

That's a big win for you! Excellent.

That gets me wondering whether NC will have such a policy (I'm totally uninformed about such things because I was going to wait to be told by Novant that "it's time").

I "registered" on the Novant portal, so I presume they'd contact me when "it's time", but if I can jump on a grocery or pharmacy site and snag an appointment, I'd do it.

I wonder if our resident NC vaccination sleuth has heard anything.

 

[JoeWras]

That's a big win for you! Excellent.

That gets me wondering whether NC will have such a policy (I'm totally uninformed about such things because I was going to wait to be told by Novant that "it's time").

I "registered" on the Novant portal, so I presume they'd contact me when "it's time", but if I can jump on a grocery or pharmacy site and snag an appointment, I'd do it.

I wonder if our resident NC vaccination sleuth has heard anything.

I wish so too. I'm not the sleuth, but I just read a summary of what Cooper said today.

- Rest of group 3 starts sign up Wed, 1 week ahead of estimates
- Group 4 starts March 24. G4 is people with medical risks, any adult age.

No word on G5 (everyone else), but as it is now, that puts us at April and beyond. Stay tuned.

 

[audreyh1]

AZ just made everyone +55 eligible for the vaccine, was able to snag an appointment at the Safeway pharmacy for my first shot tomorrow.

Oh man - I’m 61 and not yet eligible!

 

[Ronstar]

Finally got DW and MIL scheduled for their first Moderna dose this Saturday. MIL has entered the phase where she tries to refuse all medical appointments, so getting her vaccinated will be a struggle. She said that she doesn't need the vaccine - her flu shot is enough to take out Covid.