At Odds With Spouse/Covid Social Distancing

[24601NoMore]

Not surprised. Vaccines make your body to remember the virus signature. You will still get infected if you get in contact with the virus, but the symptoms won't kill you. There is a slight chance some viruses get to replicate themselves and a few will still get out of your body to infect others. But the transmission will be a lot less than those who are not immune.

I prefer to mask up and keep distance indoors. As long as I am not in/near a crowd outdoors, I tend to think the chance for me to get in contact with covid virus is slim to none.

Vaccines won't creat a force field around you to block the virus from enter into your body, if that is what you are thinking. If that is the case, then people can comfortably say they will not be infected after getting jabbed so no longer need to observe the pandemic guidelines.

There are actually vaccinated people who have died after contracting COVID. I posted one example above, but read about at least a couple a day.

So, to recap..there are breakthrough cases (~5% of all vaccinated that come into contact with an infected person, of which there are potentially many given the large number of people who refuse to be vaccinated..plus all the kids). Some of those people, regrettably, DO DIE.

Then, there's reduced efficacy of the vaccines against things like the Delta variant, which is estimated to be -12% or so, for a "best case" protection of 88% (against Delta).

That was my point. The odds are not zero or anywhere close to zero. (I don't personally see 12+% as anywhere near zero. YMMV).

What people choose to do individually with that data is a personal decision..but I do think and have observed that there are a LOT of people who think they got an "immunity idol" when they got vaccinated, and are now Golden - and that's just not the case at all.

Just keepin' it real..I've shared the data because I thought it was not widely known. From this point out..gonna disengage on the topic rather than go back and forth till the cows come home, as that's not productive for any of us. Best of luck to all. Stay healthy and stay safe.

 

[tmm99]

Yes, really. That's the efficacy (~88%) of Pfizer (and I believe Moderna is similar) against the Delta variant, that's ravaged India and the UK and is already in the US.

I don't remember which other variant is even less than that..P.1 maybe? But there are indeed variants that the vaccines protect even less than 88% against..

It's not that 12% of the people get seriously sick to the extent they get hospitalized or/and die. You may just get mild cold-like symptoms. Some will definitely die, but a lot of people die of flu too. I guess you won't catch the flu either if you keep on wearing a mask in public. I so far haven't read any other variant having less efficacy. (Higher efficacy against the UK and S. Africa variant.)

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2104974

And people with compromised immune systems will be vulnerable with or without the two-shot vaccines.

 

[harllee]

It's not that 12% of the people get seriously sick to the extent they get hospitalized or/and die. You may just get mild cold-like symptoms. Some will definitely die, but a lot of people die of flu too. I guess you won't catch the flu either if you keep on wearing a mask in public. I so far haven't read any other variant having less efficacy. (Higher efficacy against the UK and S. Africa variant.)

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2104974

And people with compromised immune systems will be vulnerable with or without the two-shot vaccines.

There are a surprising number of immune compromised people in the US --about 4% of adults in the US are immune compromised (from things like rheumatoid arthritis, Crohns disease, HIV, organ transplants, cancer, chemo, etc). Those people, even if they have had 2 shots of the vaccine, have reduced
immunity to Covid. Studies have shown that being immune compromised can reduce the effectiveness of the vaccines by as much as 50-60%. For those people and their families Covid is certainly not over.

 

[Bigdawg]

It's not that 12% of the people get seriously sick to the extent they get hospitalized or/and die. You may just get mild cold-like symptoms. Some will definitely die, but a lot of people die of flu too. I guess you won't catch the flu either if you keep on wearing a mask in public. I so far haven't read any other variant having less efficacy. (Higher efficacy against the UK and S. Africa variant.)

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2104974

And people with compromised immune systems will be vulnerable with or without the two-shot vaccines.

Of course it's not 12%. In 18 months not even 12% of the total US population got covid. And most of that time was pre vaccine. So how could 12%, now with the vaccine available, get covid? Good to know that some of you will never leave your homes again. Streets will be less crowed. Thank you. Yes, I'm vaccinated. Did you get the vaccine for Japeanese Encephalitis? How about anthrax? Should I label you an anti vaxxer? I'm sure that I have many more vaccines in my body than you do. Stop labeling and judging. Even when/if covid is 100% gone you will still have other germs that could be harmful to people around you. Better wear that mask for the rest of your life.

 

[Gumby]

Yes, really. That's the efficacy (~88%) of Pfizer (and I believe Moderna is similar) against the Delta variant, that's ravaged India and the UK and is already in the US.

I don't remember which other variant is even less than that..P.1 maybe? But there are indeed variants that the vaccines protect even less than 88% against..

Actually, I think you are confusing relative risk and absolute risk. Vaccine efficacy is a measure of relative risk. That is, it tells you how much better you would have fared if you had the vaccine than if you had not. It does NOT tell you your risk of contracting Covid. This can be seen in the vaccine trial data. To wit:

A total of 43,548 participants underwent randomization, of whom 43,448 received injections: 21,720 with BNT162b2 and 21,728 with placebo. There were 8 cases of Covid-19 with onset at least 7 days after the second dose among participants assigned to receive BNT162b2 and 162 cases among those assigned to placebo...

source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577


The absolute risk of catching Covid among the unvaccinated during the trial period of 2 months was 162/21,278 or 0.76% (so a 99.24% chance that you would not catch Covid even if unvaccinated during those two months.) The absolute risk of catching Covid if you were among the vaccinated was 8/21,270 or 0.04% (so a 99.96% chance that you would not catch Covid.) The relative risk reduction (efficacy) is 1-(.04/0.76) = 94.7%.

Even if the Pfizer vaccine were only 88% effective against the Delta variant, that would put your chances of catching Covid at 0.09% (assuming that the Delta variant is as transmissible as the original) NOT 12% .

Here's the math:

162/21,278 people in unvaccinated group catch Covid

vaccine is 88% effective, so

162 x (1 - .88) = 19.4 people in vaccinated group catch Covid

which means your odds of catching Covid (Delta) are 19.4/21270 = 0.09%

 

[tmm99]

Of course it's not 12%. In 18 months not even 12% of the total US population got covid. And most of that time was pre vaccine. So how could 12%, now with the vaccine available, get covid? Good to know that some of you will never leave your homes again. Streets will be less crowed. Thank you. Yes, I'm vaccinated. Did you get the vaccine for Japeanese Encephalitis? How about anthrax? Should I label you an anti vaxxer? I'm sure that I have many more vaccines in my body than you do. Stop labeling and judging. Even when/if covid is 100% gone you will still have other germs that could be harmful to people around you. Better wear that mask for the rest of your life.

I think you're misunderstanding my point. I'm a little taken aback by your hostility and sarcasm. Two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine are 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the Delta variant. It has nothing to do with how many people get COVID. It has to do with how many people get COVID out of the people who get fully vaccinated. If you look at earlier posts, the 12% is being mentioned by several posters, so you can tell that everyone is talking about 12% of the people who have been fully vaccinated, not 12% of the population.

Also, although I think you should behave nicely toward people who are anti-vaxxers as well as anybody else in the world, I am pro vaccines. I already had my first jab and am waiting for the 2nd one (I live in Canada and we're short of vaccines.) I was trying to explain to the person I quoted (who seemed to think 12% was too high a risk to take) what that 12% meant and saying (or at least I thought I was saying) it's not that bad, it may possibly be more like the flu. The link I provided in my article shows a study that two doses will protect you from severe/critical/fatal illnesses.

I have no intention of continuing to wear a mask after my 2nd shot, although, having noticed that I haven't gotten sick at all since the pandemic, I might decide to wear a mask when I go on an international trip - I tend to catch a bug almost every time. I am originally from Japan and I visit Japan frequently. A lot of people wear a mask during the pollen season there anyway, so I'm sure I won't stick out like a sore thumb.

 

[stephenson]

Sorry - I definitely do not behave nicely to those who have chosen not to be vaccinated - they are risking my life - and theirs. They increase my insurance cost, etc.

 

[tmm99]

There are a surprising number of immune compromised people in the US --about 4% of adults in the US are immune compromised (from things like rheumatoid arthritis, Crohns disease, HIV, organ transplants, cancer, chemo, etc). Those people, even if they have had 2 shots of the vaccine, have reduced
immunity to Covid. Studies have shown that being immune compromised can reduce the effectiveness of the vaccines by as much as 50-60%. For those people and their families Covid is certainly not over.

Yeah, I feel for people who are immune-compromised, including your DH. I hope he gets his booster shot. You said that's in the talks in another thread, so hopefully, there will be an official green signal for your DH to get the 3rd shot. I have a feeling we'll probably all need a booster shot after a while anyway, but the sooner the better for your DH.

I was using some cortisone cream for my psoriasis flare-up on my left elbow, but I stopped as the ingredient, cortisone, could possibly lower my immune system. I can take a little itchiness.

 

[tmm99]

Sorry - I definitely do not behave nicely to those who have chosen not to be vaccinated - they are risking my life - and theirs. They increase my insurance cost, etc.

I think the best approach is to present facts and some persuasive arguments and have those people come to the conclusion themselves, and we can do that nicely the way some people are doing on this forum. I think that works so much better IMHO, but YMMV.

I have a friend whose DH is on the fence about getting vaccinated. He's not an anti-vaxxer, but he for some reason doesn't think he will get very sick as he doesn't even catch a common cold. My friend is doing her best to persuade him. I hope she succeeds. They have small children who are not eligible for the vaccine yet, so I think the stakes are pretty high IMO.

 

[ivinsfan]

The OP never came back after his first post and yet there are some posters in what my DH would call a Pi$$ing contest about vaccines and of course they are quoting stuff off the internet..I don't care how many articles you link to, articles on the internet are a dime a dozen, oh wait they are free.

 

[USGrant1962]

The OP never came back after his first post and yet there are some posters in what my DH would call a Pi$$ing contest about vaccines and of course they are quoting stuff off the internet..I don't care how many articles you link to, articles on the internet are a dime a dozen, oh wait they are free.

OK, did you make that up or see it somewhere? Brilliant!

 

[tulak]

The risk with the unvaccinated is that the virus will mutate, rendering the current vaccines ineffective.

I think this is unlikely, but in case it happens, I feel that we should all enjoy life as much as possible in the meantime.

But going back the original point in this thread, the current vaccines work. If everyone around you is vaccinated, have fun!

 

[audreyh1]

They’ve been very very concerned about mutations rendering current vaccines much less effective, however so far they have held up remarkably well. I’m not saying it can’t happen. It very well might.

Unfortunately even if we got almost everybody vaccinated in the US, there is the whole rest of the world exposed as well, and it’s going to take considerably longer for the world to be highly vaccinated. In the meantime the virus will be spreading and mutating in every corner of the globe.

 

[tulak]

They’ve been very very concerned about mutations rendering current vaccines much less effective, however so far they have held up remarkably well. I’m not saying it can’t happen. It very well might.

It is their job to be concerned, which is good. They are thinking about potential outcomes and how to ideally minimize them. But people aren’t that compliant. It’s a best effort.

Personally, I feel bad for public health officials. I’ve listened to numerous cases where they decided to ‘retire’ due to undue stress the general public has put on them. I don’t blame them. It’s turning out to be a thankless job in a pandemic and their only fault is being protective to minimize loss of life, based on the known science at the time.

So where are we?

With a vaccine that works incredibly well for all the known variants. It’s a good place to be.

 

[RetireeRobert]

The infection rate in the total population with the corona virus was low to start with. The "serious" symptoms cases (needing hospitalization) were some small fraction of those infected, and the fatal cases of those infected were an even smaller fraction of those infected.

Now, with vaccines, even fewer will get infected, and those who do still get infected will have even milder symptoms and even fewer deaths.

I am going on with my life. No mask.

 

[Dtail]

The OP never came back after his first post and yet there are some posters in what my DH would call a Pi$$ing contest about vaccines and of course they are quoting stuff off the internet..I don't care how many articles you link to, articles on the internet are a dime a dozen, oh wait they are free.

Not the first time where an OP does not come back after the first post.
Throw it out there and see the comments sort of thing.

 

[donheff]

There are a surprising number of immune compromised people in the US --about 4% of adults in the US are immune compromised (from things like rheumatoid arthritis, Crohns disease, HIV, organ transplants, cancer, chemo, etc). Those people, even if they have had 2 shots of the vaccine, have reduced
immunity to Covid. Studies have shown that being immune compromised can reduce the effectiveness of the vaccines by as much as 50-60%. For those people and their families Covid is certainly not over.

And, of course, those who refuse to get the vaccine because they believe Bill Gates has embedded nano-scale microchips in each dose don't care that they put those people at risk.

 

[donheff]

It has nothing to do with how many people get COVID. It has to do with how many people get COVID out of the people who get fully vaccinated. If you look at earlier posts, the 12% is being mentioned by several posters, so you can tell that everyone is talking about 12% of the people who have been fully vaccinated...

I hope no one gets confused into thinking a vaccinated person has a 12% chance of getting Covid. It is far, far less than that. What that data point means is that the vaccinated people have 12% of the risk of unvaccinated people. So, if 100 people out of 50,000 in the general population get Covid over a certain period of time, approximately 12 of 50,000 vaccinated people will get Covid - and those 12 will be far less likely to die. So. if the background rate of infection among the unvaccinated is currently somewhere around .2%/year, the rate among the vaccinated would be .024%/year. With that level of risk, I am going to restaurants again.

 

[audreyh1]

I hope no one gets confused into thinking a vaccinated person has a 12% chance of getting Covid. It is far, far less than that. What that data point means is that the vaccinated people have 12% of the risk of unvaccinated people. So, if 100 people out of 50,000 in the general population get Covid over a certain period of time, approximately 12 of 50,000 vaccinated people will get Covid - and those 12 will be far less likely to die. So. if the background rate of infection among the unvaccinated is currently somewhere around .2%/year, the rate among the vaccinated would be .024%/year. With that level of risk, I am going to restaurants again.

Good explanation!

Although it’s worth pointing out that some folks are way more exposed to COVID than others because it’s ultimately driven by behavior. If the behavior of the two original tested groups in the original tests were identical……but it was probably not.

I think it’s playing out somewhat now due to social clustering because it appears that unvaccinated people tend to hang out together, and vaccinated people tend to hang out together. So even today overall vaccinated folks have more protection also due to their social behavior.

 

[stephenson]

The infection rate in the total population with the corona virus was low to start with. The "serious" symptoms cases (needing hospitalization) were some small fraction of those infected, and the fatal cases of those infected were an even smaller fraction of those infected.

Now, with vaccines, even fewer will get infected, and those who do still get infected will have even milder symptoms and even fewer deaths.

I am going on with my life. No mask.

I would never characterize these circumstances/situations as being "low."

 

[RetireeRobert]

I would never characterize these circumstances/situations as being "low."

See donheffs explanation with some numbers:

"I hope no one gets confused into thinking a vaccinated person has a 12% chance of getting Covid. It is far, far less than that. What that data point means is that the vaccinated people have 12% of the risk of unvaccinated people. So, if 100 people out of 50,000 in the general population get Covid over a certain period of time, approximately 12 of 50,000 vaccinated people will get Covid - and those 12 will be far less likely to die. So. if the background rate of infection among the unvaccinated is currently somewhere around .2%/year, the rate among the vaccinated would be .024%/year."

I "would" characterize these situations as being "low"!"

 

[Dtail]

Good explanation!

Although it’s worth pointing out that some folks are way more exposed to COVID than others because it’s ultimately driven by behavior. If the behavior of the two original tested groups in the original tests were identical……but it was probably not.

I think it’s playing out somewhat now due to social clustering because it appears that unvaccinated people tend to hang out together, and vaccinated people tend to hang out together. So even today overall vaccinated folks have more protection also due to their social behavior.

Good point and more true than not for us.

 

[brett]

We at odds with much of DW's side of the family.

About 1/3 believe the conspiracy theory complete with Soros, Gates, microchips the lot. They do not believe in masks. We refer to them as the looney toon relatives. A few are anti vaccers. Flat earthers who believe that their built in immunity will protect them from everything. Did not do so well for polio victims or the 600K or so who perished as a result of covid.

Another 1/3 will not get the vaccine because their Pastor advised against it. Imagine taking the advice of some nine month Bible College wonder over that of our leading health experts. It is unimaginable to us.

The final 1/3, including the one that actually works at a Bible College have the shots and were very anxious to get them. They are as perplexed with the other two groups as we are. Fortunately we are a few thousand miles away from most of them.

 

[24601NoMore]

See donheffs explanation with some numbers:

"I hope no one gets confused into thinking a vaccinated person has a 12% chance of getting Covid. It is far, far less than that. What that data point means is that the vaccinated people have 12% of the risk of unvaccinated people. So, if 100 people out of 50,000 in the general population get Covid over a certain period of time, approximately 12 of 50,000 vaccinated people will get Covid - and those 12 will be far less likely to die. So. if the background rate of infection among the unvaccinated is currently somewhere around .2%/year, the rate among the vaccinated would be .024%/year."

Not sure where you're getting those numbers, because the percentage of non-vaccinated population to have gotten COVID19 to-date is a lot higher than 0.2%.

US Cases to-date: 34,342,366
US Population: ~331M
(See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

Of course, "some" of those infections are vaccinated people, but for sake of example, let's assume most all are un-vacc'd.

So, rate of infection is ~10.37%, not .2%.

Now, since Pfizer protects 88% against the Delta variant..

(1 - .88) * 10.37 = 1.24%.

A heck of a lot better than 10.37%, but still quite a bit above "low" risk IMHO.

 

[RetireeRobert]

So, rate of infection is ~10.37%, not .2%.

Now, since Pfizer protects 88% against the Delta variant..

(1 - .88) * 10.37 = 1.24%.

A heck of a lot better than 10.37%, but still quite a bit above "low" risk IMHO.

Even using your numbers, most people I know would consider 99 chances out of 100 for not even getting infected as "low risk".

And of that 1% chance to even get infected with Covid, the far largest number would be mild cases not even needing hospitalization, or would be asymptomatic entirely. And of the small portion of infections that would even need hospitalization, only a small portion of those would be fatal, and the rest would recover.

Yes, "low risk". IMHO.