Hi and I want Go-Big-Or-Go-Home Investment Ideas for My Roth IRA

[Gumby]

I know of an investment strategy in which you have a 47.37% probability of doubling your money almost instantly. And since you asked nicely, I'll tell you - go to the roulette wheel at the casino and put it all on red. The downside is that you have a 52.63% probability of losing everything, but you said that would be OK.

Failing that, I suggest investing in water. As the climate changes and sea level rises, we will see increased salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers. And the deep subsurface aquifers, such as the Ogallala in the Great Plains area of the US, are already being overdrawn and rapidly depleted. In my opinion, fresh water will only become scarcer and more valuable from this point on. It is something that people literally can't live without.

Here are some investments in that space:

Invesco S&P Global Water Index ETF (CGW)
Invesco Water Resources ETF (PHO)
Invesco Global Water ETF (PIO)
First Trust Water Index ETF (FIW)
American Water Works (AWK)
Ecolab (ECL)
Danaher Corp. (DHR)
Nasdaq Veles California Water Index (NQH20)

 

[Aerides]

"What major societal changes will/have occur that a well run company can monetize?"

Well the folks truly planning companies to answer those changes aren't here, but follow them and what they are doing. Research and follow some VC's to see where the interest and capital is going, and then look for bets in those areas.

Treating a small part of your portfolio as a gamble, eyes wide open, can be fun, if you take some measured bets and then hold on for a ride.

 

[mrfeh]

QQQ (or maybe something that is more concentrated on the top 10 tech stocks, if something exists)
leveraged 100% equities fund
crypto

 

[Life_by_Fire]

TQQQ or UPRO. Throw in a bit of TMF to dampen market crashes. Read up on HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure, a 2 part saga on Bogleheads forum.

+1. That is what I was going to say. I'm up over 130% since November 2019. Also check out PSLDX. Roth is perfect for that.

 

[ERD50]

I'd say technology will be the most likely way to pick a go-big stock. And to narrow down a little, I'll say battery technology and solar technology. ...

That may very well be a good play, the trouble is, which companies to invest in?

I recall hearing that in the early days of the railroad and automobile, people could have made fortunes by investing in some of those companies. Trouble is, many, many of those companies went bankrupt. So how do you choose?

IIRC, wiki has a long, long list of defunct American auto companies.

Think of all the computer companies that no longer exist (some were merged/bought out, but many went BK).

... There's talk of incorporating solar into road beds ...

(Just talking facts here, not criticizing you for mentioning it): That is a terrible idea with no merit whatsoever (other than as a money-making scheme for the people promoting it). Everything about it is negative at every level. If you want solar power, put the panels at the proper angle, where they can be easily maintained (flat industrial rooftops, or a solar farm, or as shade over a parking lot), don't drive on them, etc.

Embedding solar panels in the roadway increases cost (dramatically), increases complexity (very significantly), and reduces output (significantly). That is a lose-lose-lose. Don't go there!

edit/add: I see my earlier idea of going to the roulette wheel is gaining momentum.

-ERD50

 

[Qs Laptop]

I view the contributions to the Roth as being my "go-big-or-go-home" investment plays. Investing the money there into a well balanced portfolio that will return 5% isn't going to change my lifestyle much. But investing in the next Amazon, Netflix, Monster Energy will! Suggestions for sectors as well would be great. The Roth is with fidelity and they have a number of sector funds.

Another Fidelity investor here. Among their sector funds, I've done very well with FSELX, their semiconductor sector fund. The world is not going to run out of demand for semiconductors and fab equipment.

I also like FSMEX, their medical technology and equipment fund. There will always be demand for the latest health care medical devices especially as more and more boomers retire.

A surrogate question is: "What major societal changes will/have occur that a well run company can monetize?"

EV's are coming. No car company will make a purely gas powered car after 2030 or thereabouts. It's still not too late to get in on it. I'm partial to the large Chinese EV companies, since they have the largest market and a fast growing middle class. I've made an absolute killing on NIO. I also own LI.

I agree with people that have mentioned the genomic sector. However, that is an industry that will give birth to hundreds of companies and the shakeout down to the major players leave many casualties (and lots of money lost.)

Looking further out, the next logical sector to be monetized is outer space. Not just space tourism, that's small potatoes. Eventually there will be large mirrors orbiting earth that will beam down solar energy to collection/storage points on the surface. But that's a bit too far down the road for me to invest in.

 

[4legsgood]

GBTC
ETHE

Obviously [emoji857]

And OBTC?

 

[OldShooter]

... My suggestion was in NEW technology, not new uses for old technology. The new solar technology incorporated into roads will not be panels. I was careful to not stipulate panels. Rather, it will likely be granular, like sand. Each surface is faceted so as to have multi angles to capture photons at varying angles and to make electrical connections. There is an issue with glare though. The road surface looks sorta like diamond glimmer that snow sometimes gives off in sunlight. My guess is that a coating that will help absorb instead of reflect will be developed.
I've had opportunity to work alongside scientists in a lab funded by venture capital, where these guys are not restricted by anything other than their imagination. The most impressive development was an acoustically invisible plastic used for ultrasound application. As need to replace unrenewable, carbon polluting energy with renewable sources grows, new ideas and developments will evolve from existing technology, like solar granules from solar panels as well as totally new creations like acoustically invisible plastics.

Yup. Lots of new technology out there in labs we have not heard of. I did a couple of angel/first round deals into technology companies and they went well, though not spectacular.

The problem is not that the technology is out there, it is finding it and investing before the price gets bid up well past the efficient market number. The OP might want to look at Worldcom as an example. Cathy whatshername appears to specialize in such stocks. More reading here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

I ran some numbers on Tesla one time, looking at forecast EV market sizes, potential margins, etc. and that set of numbers said that Tesla would have to have 100% of the worldwide EV market to justify a $700 stock price. Different numbers would produce a different result of course, but the greater fools don't do numbers anyway. Companies whose stocks are in this mode, too, can be tempted to fudge the numbers a little or to fake the demos, fearing that they'll end up on the ash heap if they don't live up to the hype. There was an electric truck guy just indited for fraud a day or two ago. I am not predicting anything but guaranteed there will be strong pressure within the Tesla organization to "make the numbers."

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by skipro33 View Post
... My suggestion was in NEW technology, not new uses for old technology. The new solar technology incorporated into roads will not be panels. I was careful to not stipulate panels. Rather, it will likely be granular, like sand. Each surface is faceted so as to have multi angles to capture photons at varying angles and to make electrical connections. There is an issue with glare though. The road surface looks sorta like diamond glimmer that snow sometimes gives off in sunlight. My guess is that a coating that will help absorb instead of reflect will be developed.
I've had opportunity to work alongside scientists in a lab funded by venture capital, where these guys are not restricted by anything other than their imagination. The most impressive development was an acoustically invisible plastic used for ultrasound application. As need to replace unrenewable, carbon polluting energy with renewable sources grows, new ideas and developments will evolve from existing technology, like solar granules from solar panels as well as totally new creations like acoustically invisible plastics.

Yup. Lots of new technology out there in labs we have not heard of. ...

Yes, I have not heard of this. I assumed skipro33 was talking about something like the "Solar Roadways" guys. Have not heard of this granular junction approach, though I'm still skeptical that a road is the best place for them. But it is interesting, I'd like to know more - does anyone have a link?


Along those lines, I've been following this group a bit (SunHydrogen, was HyperSolar):

www.sunhydrogen.com

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/hysr

As I understand it, these are little solar cell chips that float in water and directly produce hydrogen by electrolysis with sunlight, I think with some special catalyst, and supposedly can work with dirty water.

I have no idea if it is a worthwhile investment or not, I follow it as I'm interested in the technology, but it seems to fit the profile of some of the things people are looking for here.

-ERD50

 

[38Chevy454]

My thoughts are you need to find a company that has something new or a new way of doing something. Get in early and hope to ride that wave. It requires being lucky to find it before the masses, and being able to get in market timing early on the increase. Almost anything you hear about on major news is already past the point of entry for the big gains. Sure you can still get in and make high returns, but usually not the "go big or go home" type returns.

Medical is an area where you can find some longshots. Cancer treatments, or specific disease treatments are always in demand once they show promise. May be gene modification type, or just new medicine that targets better.

Pot stocks have pretty much already done the initial rise, so not easy to find big returns there IMHO. I like IIPR which is a REIT that caters to the pot industry. Kind of a side play vs the direct growers and supplier companies.

EVs have some room if you find the right one. I like FSR as one that could go big. Their model has low mfg investment by using partners for that. Will it work? I previously this year rode GM up approx 50% return and cashed out. Just good timing based on a hunch that it would go up with all the EV talk.

One new technology I like is WRAP, it is a non-lethal way to subdue a suspect wherein the police fires a bola wrap that prevents a suspect from running away. About as non-lethal as it can get. It could go big if adopted and widely used.

Battery front there is only going to be increasing demand for them for EVs, energy storage in devices, home storage for outages, and utilities for peaking power availability. So think about how to get in on some aspect of that. I like LAC, a lithium miner. But there are many mining stocks or other ways to look into batteries. Find one that you think can go up more than the market.

Just some ideas off top of my head to participate in the discussion.

 

[raria]

The problem is not that the technology is out there, it is finding it and investing before the price gets bid up well past the efficient market number.

This is the problem exactly. The day after COVID shut down our local schools (in early March 2020) I went to buy Vaccine stocks, Clorex, Costco, Zoom etc and all had already bolted. The market is quick!

 

[raria]

That may very well be a good play, the trouble is, which companies to invest in?

I recall hearing that in the early days of the railroad and automobile, people could have made fortunes by investing in some of those companies. Trouble is, many, many of those companies went bankrupt. So how do you choose?

Very true, my aim is to make a few educated bets in a field and hope one comes out on top.

 

[OldShooter]

... The market is quick!

Although in theory all investors, including us little guys, have equal access to information, it is the traders with Bloombergs on their desks and multi-line telephones who will have acted first. IMO the Efficient Market Hypothesis sets the beginning point of the price rise in situations like this. The rest of the rise is by traders hoping to skin a few of the greater fools. Google "stock trader desk" images to see what we're up against. (https://www.google.com/search?newwindow=1&source=univ&tbm=isch&q=stock+trader+desk)

 

[Qs Laptop]

Pot stocks have pretty much already done the initial rise, so not easy to find big returns there IMHO. I like IIPR which is a REIT that caters to the pot industry. Kind of a side play vs the direct growers and supplier companies.

I've yet to find a weed stock that has competent management.

One new technology I like is WRAP, it is a non-lethal way to subdue a suspect wherein the police fires a bola wrap that prevents a suspect from running away. About as non-lethal as it can get. It could go big if adopted and widely used.

I invested in WRAP back in April 2020 at $4.15. I sold half my holdings at $9.40 this June. Called the Batman stock by investors because the device is something Batman would have on his utility belt, the device is pretty nifty. The problem is that criminals don't stand still with their arms plastered to their sides and let you wrap them up. Watch any demo of this device and they show the "suspect" standing still essentially waiting for the unit to deploy and envelope them. I'm still holding because I think they can sell a bunch of them; just not sure if they will get great field reviews from police officers. The key is getting police departments to reorder the bola cartridges.

Battery front there is only going to be increasing demand for them for EVs, energy storage in devices, home storage for outages, and utilities for peaking power availability. So think about how to get in on some aspect of that. I like LAC, a lithium miner. But there are many mining stocks or other ways to look into batteries. Find one that you think can go up more than the market.

I bought LAC back in May 2020 and am up 377%. I'm sure there is more room to grow as lithium demand is taking off.

Along these same lines, I'm dabbling in a penny stock, ATAO, that is a lithium mining stock in Nevada. They also claim to have proprietary lithium battery tech and contracts to recycle lithium batteries. Paul Pelosi Jr. (Nancy's son) is on the advisory board of this company.

I'm also invested in DFLYF, a drone company with some nice contracts and some heavy hitters on the board of directors. Right now I am losing a bit on this one, but not worried. I will hold.

My medical device stocks are INMD and ASCX. INMD is impressive, I'm up almost 100% in 6 months. I've been in and out and in on ASCX; made money the first go around, currently I am down on this cycle.

 

[boilerman]

How about the legal online sports gambling stocks? As more states legalize it in the next few years, the market should explode. Look at Draftkings (DKNG) or the BETZ ETF.

I’d love to find a good marijuana stock but the legalization route is too slow. Sports gambling doesn’t have the same stigma and I think almost every state will make it legal in the next 5 years.

 

[Qs Laptop]

How about the legal online sports gambling stocks? As more states legalize it in the next few years, the market should explode. Look at Draftkings (DKNG) or the BETZ ETF.

I’d love to find a good marijuana stock but the legalization route is too slow. Sports gambling doesn’t have the same stigma and I think almost every state will make it legal in the next 5 years.

Definitely agree that sports betting is a better "bet" than weed stocks. I have a small position in FUNFF.

 

[Life_by_Fire]

One new technology I like is WRAP, it is a non-lethal way to subdue a suspect wherein the police fires a bola wrap that prevents a suspect from running away. About as non-lethal as it can get. It could go big if adopted and widely used.

Just some ideas off top of my head to participate in the discussion.

I just saw that this was used in Tampa, FL and it made headlines. There may be something there. Nice catch.

 

[Markola]

^^^^ I’ve been wondering when something like this would be invented. Batman would approve!

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

OP, one thing you might want to take a look at is the CNBC disruptors list, top 50. I would guess there are some long term winners in those lists. It is going to be up to you to figure out which ones are going to be long term winners.

But if you want a sector to look at I would say 5G. But what do I know?

 

[raria]

OP, one thing you might want to take a look at is the CNBC disruptors list, top 50. I would guess there are some long term winners in those lists. It is going to be up to you to figure out which ones are going to be long term winners.

But if you want a sector to look at I would say 5G. But what do I know?

Thanks the problem with that list is they already have disrupted when they are listed.

Also, it doesn't have to be hugely disruptive to make money. Two of my best holdings Costco and Monster Drinks are hardly mentioned as disrupters but returned 30 x and 100 x respectively. Just a great idea well executed will suffice.

 

[NW-Bound]

Thanks the problem with that list is they already have disrupted when they are listed.

Also, it doesn't have to be hugely disruptive to make money. Two of my best holdings Costco and Monster Drinks are hardly mentioned as disrupters but returned 30 x and 100 x respectively. Just a great idea well executed will suffice.

There ya go. You sound so different than the OP who wanted to gamble to win big.

I don't bother to look for disruptive companies, because for one successful company there are 10 more who simply disrupt my account balance, and I mean in a not so nice way.

Just steady growth but more reliable growth is good enough for me. Even so, the chance of success is not 100%. It is still a lot better than the chance of getting rich overnight.

 

[Camas Lilly]

Qqq
ftec
arkk
arkq
arkw
vug
mseqx

I second that on the Ark Invest Funds. Try Innovation, Next Gen Internet, AI/Robotics, Genomics and Fintech. Rumor has it there is talk of a Bitcoin fund. I own a few, but these and a couple of others on the opposite end of the spectrum for ballast are less than 10% of my retirement fund.

 

[Coachdavo]

I feel the same way about my Roth. Working out well so far with a small group of companies I have researched. If you want Mutual Funds I can't help

Main Holdings:
VTSI - Makes simulators for police and military training. Closing contracts recently.
SMSI - They have a virtual monopoly on Family Safety Apps for mobile carriers. My biggest holding. They are at an inflection point IMO. Just bought more today after big news about signing AT&T

Other minor holds:
OPGN, RCMT, DTEA and TPCS

 

[eyenitnoy]

Ai
etsy
gdot
lmnd
meli
ozon
pins
pltr
psfe
se

 

[tenant13]

Convert your ROTH IRA into self-directed IRA and buy Bitcoin directly. Not BTC funds but actual BTC that you will have full control over. Yes, it’s risky so you may end up with nothing (given the latest regulatory drama - it’s something to think about). But at this level of institutional engagement I doubt it. JP Morgan just started offering access to Bitcoin for its clients - nobody is going to kill it when it’s becoming the toy of 1% .

Bitcoin is a dirty word on these forums but you wanted out of the box ideas with potential so here’s one.