Breakthrough club

[Teacher Terry]

Joe, I am so sorry about your friend.

 

[Ronstar]

Sorry for your loss Joe. I agree with you that Covid seems to bring on or worsen other diseases/illnesses. And since we know so little about covid, there is no way to tell for sure.

 

[gattara]

He was laid to rest last weekend. In a way, it may have been a blessing, but we'll never know. The normal course of his disease is years (of suffering), but COVID seemed to make it a matter of months.

I'm so sad about this, he was one of the best late-life friends I've ever made.

All I know is this disease sucks and there's way too much we don't know about it.

Jeez, that is awful. I am really sorry about your loss. It's hard to lose a good friend.

 

[JoeWras]

Thanks all. It was a shock. He was in one of my volunteer groups. We did a lot of manual labor, and he was not shy in picking heavy stuff up and schlepping it around. He was in shape. More importantly, he kept such infectious good humor and always put us all in a great mood.

It just turns out he had the start of a condition which covid brutally exposed.

 

[audreyh1]

Thanks all. It was a shock. He was in one of my volunteer groups. We did a lot of manual labor, and he was not shy in picking heavy stuff up and schlepping it around. He was in shape. More importantly, he kept such infectious good humor and always put us all in a great mood.

It just turns out he had the start of a condition which covid brutally exposed.

That's terrible Joe! I'm so sorry for your loss and what your friend had to suffer,

 

[sengsational]

Yup, and I'm fully recovered. Really nothing notable after 10 or 11 days of a scratchy throat. At this point I figure I got boosted in August so will wait a while to get my next booster.

Do you supplement with vitamin D? I saw a paper out of Germany that was pretty convincing that indicated low D was a predictor of worse symptoms.

 

[HenryD]

Two family breakthroughs this week:
DS in the UK. Mid 40s, doubled and boosted. Mild so far.
FIL in MN, US. Late 70s, nursing home, not boosted. Mild to moderate so far.
Just found out I have a serious comorbidity. I'm boosted but will be even more cautious going forward.

 

[Gremlin]

So sorry to hear this! My condolences.

A friend of mine had a Pfizer breakthrough case in August, which was 5 months past his second shot.

He never really recovered.

His strength never returned. He thought he had long COVID. After a long series of tests, he was diagnosed with a well known neuro-muscular disease. It is like COVID kicked it into gear. We know COVID affects nerves. It seemed like a heat seeking missile in his case.

He was laid to rest last weekend. In a way, it may have been a blessing, but we'll never know. The normal course of his disease is years (of suffering), but COVID seemed to make it a matter of months.

I'm so sad about this, he was one of the best late-life friends I've ever made.

All I know is this disease sucks and there's way too much we don't know about it.

 

[MuirWannabe]

I’m for the vaccine. Got my two doses of Moderna back in January and February. Got my Moderna booster 3 weeks ago.

But, in terms of getting us back to normal, is it time to acknowledge the vaccines failure? If 100% of folks were vaccinated, would Covid still be rampant? I’m starting to think maybe yes.

The vaccine does seem to offer some protection against severe outcomes, although no guarantees on that. But limited protection on actually getting Covid and limited protection on spreading it once infected. Certainly not the 95% protection originally thought. And severe outcomes do occur.

My daughter received her Moderna vaccines in January and February just as I did. She also got a full dose ‘booster’ in September of Moderna. Yesterday, she tested positive for Covid and is feeling rather poorly. We were all planning on going to Houston for a big extended family Thanksgiving gathering. Now that’s off for my family. We are all fully vaccinated including boosters. Yet fear of Covid still presents itself as a barrier to normal living.

The powers that be seem obsessed exclusively on getting everyone the vaccine. Is it time to rethink, and invest in other strategies? Other vaccines? Other therapeutics? Other I don’t know what?

The vaccines don’t seem to be the answer. Or maybe a solution that allows returning to normal is a fiction.

 

[Gearhead Jim]

I'm putting this in the Breakthrough thread because all of the people involved had plenty of opportunity to be vaccinated, and probably all of them had done so. The boosters had recently become available and some (including DW and I) had also been boosted.

Back in the Spring, when it looked like Covid was dying out, someone in our car club organized an October trip to Door County WI for a long weekend of touring and leafing.

By the time we did the trip last month, the Covid numbers in Door Cnty were three times what we had in our home area. But hey, we're all vaccinated and mostly healthy and we'll spend most of the time in our car, isolated from the crowd. Only together and in public for lunch and dinner in restaurants. Should be ok, right?

Well, 52 of us went there and 12 or 14 came down with Covid.
DW & I were and are ok. AFAIK, everyone avoided hospitalization and made a normal recovery, like a bad case of the flu, except one poor fellow with terminal cancer who probably had less than a year to live, he got sick coming home and died a month later. Another fellow had only mild symptoms but received the monoclonal antibody dose because of his age.

Looking back, perhaps the high infection rate (~25%) in our group should not be a surprise. Lots of people there and NOBODY in Door County was wearing masks anywhere, and the restaurants crammed all of us together cheek-to-jowl.

Except the fellow who was already terminal, I guess we could say the vaccines worked as advertised- people got sick but not grievously so. Those who got sick do seem emotionally effected a bit by the experience.

As the saying goes. "We may be done with Covid but Covid isn't done with us."

Here's the link to Covid stats by county anywhere in the US, just type the county name or metropolitan area into the box near the top;

https://covidactnow.org/us/illinois-il/county/mc_henry_county/?s=25901499

 

[athena53]

I’m for the vaccine. Got my two doses of Moderna back in January and February. Got my Moderna booster 3 weeks ago.

But, in terms of getting us back to normal, is it time to acknowledge the vaccines failure? If 100% of folks were vaccinated, would Covid still be rampant? I’m starting to think maybe yes.

The vaccine does seem to offer some protection against severe outcomes, although no guarantees on that. But limited protection on actually getting Covid and limited protection on spreading it once infected. Certainly not the 95% protection originally thought. And severe outcomes do occur.
<snip>

The powers that be seem obsessed exclusively on getting everyone the vaccine. Is it time to rethink, and invest in other strategies? Other vaccines? Other therapeutics? Other I don’t know what?

Good, thoughtful questions and I'm also vaccinated, including the booster. When I e-mailed the family to tell them of DS' my granddaughter's cases, my sister, who's a retired OB-Gyn, said it may get to the point where we ALL get it but have less severe cases (for the most part) due to the vaccine. DS was fully vaccinated, granddaughter is only 7 and was not.

Maybe we're back to the early exhortations to "flatten the curve" and developing herd immunity? I know that a few unlucky people have had recurrences but in many countries in Europe, having recovered from COVID is as valid as being vaccinated for entering public venues, etc. where ordinarily a vaccination is required.

 

[ivinsfan]

Good, thoughtful questions and I'm also vaccinated, including the booster. When I e-mailed the family to tell them of DS' my granddaughter's cases, my sister, who's a retired OB-Gyn, said it may get to the point where we ALL get it but have less severe cases (for the most part) due to the vaccine. DS was fully vaccinated, granddaughter is only 7 and was not.

Maybe we're back to the early exhortations to "flatten the curve" and developing herd immunity? I know that a few unlucky people have had recurrences but in many countries in Europe, having recovered from COVID is as valid as being vaccinated for entering public venues, etc. where ordinarily a vaccination is required.

And the difference from last holidays IMO, is that a lot of us were thinking we'll just hunker down until Covid is over which can't be too far away.


At this point hunkering down isn't
really viable for as long as it takes for Covid to go byebye.


We seem to be rapidly heading towards people will either vaxx and hope for no or Covid lite. Or won't vax and get Covid. At this point I think anybody not vaxxed who thinks they won't eventually get Coivd is in denial.


But vaccine is still our best line of defense to protect ourselves and others.

 

[Aerides]

But, in terms of getting us back to normal, is it time to acknowledge the vaccines failure? If 100% of folks were vaccinated, would Covid still be rampant? I’m starting to think maybe yes.

The vaccine does seem to offer some protection against severe outcomes, although no guarantees on that. But limited protection on actually getting Covid and limited protection on spreading it once infected. Certainly not the 95% protection originally thought. And severe outcomes do occur.

The original 95% was against illness, not against any infection at all. That's how most vaccines work, though most are not scrutinized by the population like this one.

If 100% of the world was vaccinated, of course Covid would still be a thing, but it would be a mild cold-like infection for far FAR more folks than it is currently. A non-hospitalized event. Severe outcomes are dramatically reduced, as are deaths.

That doesn't spell failure to me at all. It spells pretty damn good, and far more than any of us were expecting last summer.

 

[HenryD]

The powers that be seem obsessed exclusively on getting everyone the vaccine. Is it time to rethink, and invest in other strategies? Other vaccines? Other therapeutics? Other I don’t know what?

The vaccines don’t seem to be the answer. Or maybe a solution that allows returning to normal is a fiction.

The vaccine is part of the answer, but not the only answer. Flattening the curve has bought us some time to develop those therapeutics, etc. The latest stat I've seen, I think from WA state, has the hospitalization rate at 18x for unvaccinated vs vaccinated for 35-64-year-olds in October 2021.

 

[Koolau]

The original 95% was against illness, not against any infection at all. That's how most vaccines work, though most are not scrutinized by the population like this one.

If 100% of the world was vaccinated, of course Covid would still be a thing, but it would be a mild cold-like infection for far FAR more folks than it is currently. A non-hospitalized event. Severe outcomes are dramatically reduced, as are deaths.

That doesn't spell failure to me at all. It spells pretty damn good, and far more than any of us were expecting last summer.

I don't disagree with your analysis. I think the issue is that we were "sold" more on the efficacy of the vaccine. SOME vaccines are virtually a guarantee against infection. I'm guessing most of us assumed that - and we were wrong. YMMV

 

[Koolau]

https://covidactnow.org/us/illinois-il/county/mc_henry_county/?s=25901499

I just briefly checked a few ZIPs I'm familiar with. Honolulu was listed as "high risk." AFAIK Hawaii State is lowest risk in the country right now. SO, I don't know how the site works, but it doesn't seem to offer much relative info on the virus. YMMV

 

[ivinsfan]

I don't disagree with your analysis. I think the issue is that we were "sold" more on the efficacy of the vaccine. SOME vaccines are virtually a guarantee against infection. I'm guessing most of us assumed that - and we were wrong. YMMV

I guess but at lot of those vaccines are implemented against infections that have virtually been eradicated.


Since we knew from the get go that Covid is viral I always thought it would be more like a flu shot. One can argue that Covid vaccine has stood up better then flu shots as of now.

 

[tmm99]

I think the vaccine is a huge success (if you do get inoculated), as it is allowing the vaccinated to do more normal things without dire consequences. If COVID didn't mutate into Delta, it would have been a bigger success, but I'm rather grateful that the original vaccine still works fairly well for the mutated, much more contagious form like Delta.

Our infection numbers are growing as more people are gathering indoors as it's getting colder out and restaurants are being allowed to have customers indoors at full capacity, etc, but our numbers are still quite low at about 5 infections per 100K population per day on average. 86% of the population over 12+ have been fully vaccinated.

 

[Koolau]

I guess but at lot of those vaccines are implemented against infections that have virtually been eradicated.


Since we knew from the get go that Covid is viral I always thought it would be more like a flu shot. One can argue that Covid vaccine has stood up better then flu shots as of now.

I'm not certain I understand your point. Small pox (for instance) was virtually eradicated - by the vaccine. That would be the "ultimate" good vaccine - one that eventually eliminates the pathogen. It's clear we having nothing like that against Covid 19 (or "flu" for that matter.) Still, what we have IS better than nothing, though natural heard immunity my be "better" but cost more lives in the short run. Such things are difficult to know or especially prove.

We've learned a lot about infectious diseases in the past 100+ years. One thing we've learned is how much more there is to know. YMMV

 

[JoeWras]

Our infection numbers are growing as more people are gathering indoors

Meanwhile, Florida is low and stable. I feel like the good people of Florida got a bad rap last summer when they were stuck inside due to the heat.

This virus is gonna just continue to virus.

BTW, I'm now 30 hours post booster. I felt a bit lethargic earlier today but I seem to be shaking it off now. Hopefully back to normal by tomorrow.

 

[ivinsfan]

I'm not certain I understand your point. Small pox (for instance) was virtually eradicated - by the vaccine. That would be the "ultimate" good vaccine - one that eventually eliminates the pathogen. It's clear we having nothing like that against Covid 19 (or "flu" for that matter.) Still, what we have IS better than nothing, though natural heard immunity my be "better" but cost more lives in the short run. Such things are difficult to know or especially prove.

We've learned a lot about infectious diseases in the past 100+ years. One thing we've learned is how much more there is to know. YMMV

Smallpox eradication
took from 1898 until 1979 to be eradicated globally. 80 years wow.



I guess this proves as humans we don't have as much patience as we used to.



The vaccine we have for Covid is a LOT better then nothing. But as you say the more we know the better we can fight.

 

[Koolau]

Smallpox eradication
took from 1898 until 1979 to be eradicated globally. 80 years wow.



I guess this proves as humans we don't have as much patience as we used to.



The vaccine we have for Covid is a LOT better then nothing. But as you say the more we know the better we can fight.

All true!

Of course, the reason it took so long to eradicate SP wasn't that the vaccine was not effective. The issue was getting the vaccine to those who needed it. That's still a problem but probably not the reason Covid 19 will be around for a long time.

 

[JoeWras]

Let's be fair. Not all viruses are the same. Smallpox and COVID are very different, just as a box truck and a sports car are different vehicles.

Back to the OP topic: I'm all for vaccine. I just got my booster. But I would like to see more frank talk from the authorities about limitations and expectations of efficacy as we have learned so much over the last 18 months or so. Breakthroughs are depressing, yet the standard line seems to be "just ignore them." Or, "They tend to be mild". Uh... some of us have seen more than mild breakthroughs and frankly it is very concerning.

 

[Alan]

If you Google “Covid deaths vaccinated vs unvaccinated “you will get various reports similar to what has been observed in the UK

Covid deaths rare among fully vaccinated - ONS https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58545548

Fully vaccinated people are much less likely to die with Covid-19 than those who aren't, or have had only one dose, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.

Out of more than 51,000 Covid deaths in England between January and July 2021, only 256 occurred after two doses.

They were mostly people at very high risk from illness from Covid-19.

 

[Koolau]

Let's be fair. Not all viruses are the same. Smallpox and COVID are very different, just as a box truck and a sports car are different vehicles.

Back to the OP topic: I'm all for vaccine. I just got my booster. But I would like to see more frank talk from the authorities about limitations and expectations of efficacy as we have learned so much over the last 18 months or so. Breakthroughs are depressing, yet the standard line seems to be "just ignore them." Or, "They tend to be mild". Uh... some of us have seen more than mild breakthroughs and frankly it is very concerning.

All vax'd myself as well. I absolutely agree about more straight talk from those "in charge." Changing the goal posts is not the definition of clear communication. YMMV