target2019
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
The stock market is reducing my equity exposure already.
Hope you're right. Unfortunately, this time is different. The issue is beyond just pure economics at this point. There's a war going on and the major power involved happens to be a big producer of petrol and gas. The x factor is the geopolitical uncertainty and impact to energy supply, which in turns (partly) drives inflation, and there's nothing US monetary and/or fiscal policies can do to influence the outcome.
Pretty short list of data points. Just because an outcome is similar to previous outcomes doesn't mean the inputs and potentialities weren't different and therefore should be ignored. You'd have to know the outcome to do that.
Unlike 2008 I'm doing nothing this time so that should guarantee we'll see another Great Depression..Haven't changed anything. I never do, but then, I always wonder if I should have after the market tanks... I have no crystal ball so...
Unlike 2008 I'm doing nothing this time so that should guarantee we'll see another Great Depression..
Markets do not like uncertainty and disruptions. A full out War in that region means gas and oil (primary exports from Russia) prices will spike and further exacerbate inflation.
I definitely think there will be a correction caused by the potential of war and inflation, but this time the Feds can't print and spend there way out of it. I have some dry powder ready to deploy and dollar cost average.
The stock market is reducing my equity exposure already.
The stock market is reducing my equity exposure already.
Sad but true.
Maybe it's time for some of the posters to find an allocation they are more comfortable with, instead of worrying when the market drops. I have a health respect for the market but don't get upset or start selling when the market goes down. I look at my accounts every day and the ups and downs don't bother me. My sister panics. Last year she finally lowered her stock allocation and she is not upset by the latest drop. Please find an allocation you are comfortable with.
Maybe it's time for some of the posters to find an allocation they are more comfortable with, instead of worrying when the market drops. I have a health respect for the market but don't get upset or start selling when the market goes down. I look at my accounts every day and the ups and downs don't bother me. My sister panics. Last year she finally lowered her stock allocation and she is not upset by the latest drop. Please find an allocation you are comfortable with.
I've been feeling uncomfortable recently with Russia and Ukraine, If that starts, I suspect the oil pipeline may be compromised and I'm concerned China will take advantage of that and go into Taiwan. Also, I'm sure the administration will be increasing interest rates, that will slow at least the housing splurge and in the end I think stock prices.
We are retired and have a large cushion, I had slightly over 70% of our net worth in stocks, So at close on 2-15 I sold a little more than 20% of my portfolio mostly VTSAX, all in tax deferred funds. I'm just in cash now, not sure if I'll put it in anything. I'm more concerned about a loss now than earning a lot more. Last year was so goo I earned 6 years of spending, so I feel better just sitting on the sideline for a bit.
Anyone else moving that direction?
PS, tell me when to get back in.
I don't normally, I stayed in all through 40% or so drop in 2008, would have been great to sell at 10% and buy back at 30% down, but no one can predict the future. But we can make guesses! I sold off during the beginning part of Covid and bought back 17% cheaper. This time I thought that Russia/Ukraine would cause a bigger drop, it just was not as big as I thought. I got back in today, I played, I won, but not as much as I wanted. But, I got about 15% of my yearly spending by playing. It was fun, if I had lost, it would not be fun. I'm only playing with my kids inheritance!
The mayhem may not be over for the markets. My son just said NATO is manning up.
I was responding to your first post where you were uncomfortable and "more concerned about a loss now than earning a lot more." I thought maybe you had an allocation that wasn't suited to you. But your follow-up shows you are back in playing and winning and not concerned. Not the same as someone that should change their allocation.
Mentioned elsewhere, I sold a block of megacorp stock from my 401(k) to "fund" my RMD this year. I was too concentrated in that stock due to its meteoric rise in price. Of course, I still have a bunch left. Otherwise, I'm sticking with the plan. YMMV