ARK Funds

[Lsbcal]

And it's also the reason I am not an indexer, though I try to be diversified. The idea is that holding individual stocks or at least sector ETFs will help me identify hot sectors vs overlooked sectors.

Timing the rebalance between sectors for contrarian moves is of course not easy, but at least I know about the possibilities and not keep my blinders on.

Do you have a methodical way of timing sectors? I've looked at this quite awhile ago and came up empty.

 

[NW-Bound]

Do you have a methodical way of timing sectors? I've looked at this quite awhile ago and came up empty.

No. It's not mechanical, like people rebalance each year between stocks and bonds.

I read the news, and follow economic data, stories, and anecdotes. For example, I have owned Freeport-McMoran (a copper miner used to be Phelps Dodge) for many years. It did not do that well for many years, but I left the shares alone. Last year, it started to pick up despite the pandemic, and I noticed that other metal miners did also. When the media started to talk about the rise of copper price, I already added a few other miners to my portfolio.

I try to own a little bit of everything, so that if a sector picks up I may be able to spot it early enough to act on it before it is all over CNBC.

 

[aja8888]

The energy sector, specifically oil & gas, has been rising since the pullback a year ago. With airlines poised to start flying with increased capacity and the economy opening up, you can bet there will be a increase in demand for refined products.

 

[Sunset]

The energy sector, specifically oil & gas, has been rising since the pullback a year ago. With airlines poised to start flying with increased capacity and the economy opening up, you can bet there will be a increase in demand for refined products.

I hope so, I have some XLE and it is down a lot.
Fortunately I doubled up when it was far down (mostly for the div and hoping it will come back).
If I sold it all now, I'd break even on price, so any further up would be great

Since this is an ARK thread, my PUTs I sold on on ARK are likely to be assigned,
Looking on the bright side that is better than buying it at over $100
It adds excitement to the news..

 

[GreenEggs]

Today was a nice change. Hopefully, the bulls will keep on charging and the bears will stay in their dens.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Back revisiting an old thread and wondering how folks like "RetiredAtThirty-Eigth" are doing.

When I did my "All hail ARK" sarcasm post, ARKK was 149.46, now 60.95. That's almost a 60% loss from my post.

I've had my fair share of losers myself.

 

[r3saving]

Back revisiting an old thread and wondering how folks like "RetiredAtThirty-Eigth" are doing.

When I did my "All hail ARK" sarcasm post, ARKK was 149.46, now 60.95. That's almost a 60% loss from my post.

I've had my fair share of losers myself.

I'm still looking at this as a long time horizon. Time will tell if I'm wrong and I never over allocate in case of 100% loss though I certainly hope that doesn't happen.

 

[Lsbcal]

I nowadays think of ARK as small cap growth (SCG) on steroids. I think one reason why SCG has under performed as an asset class except for brief periods is because of the "lottery effect". I think it was Larry Swedroe who suggested that many people invest in SCG because they are hoping for the "next" ... the next Microsoft, the next Apple, or even the next Tesla.

ARK has been selling innovation as a concept. Of course, we all like successful innovation. ARKK got it right with Tesla. And who knows, they may get it right with some other high growth companies. I'm not an owner but if I were it would have to be for the next several years.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I nowadays think of ARK as small cap growth (SCG) on steroids. I think one reason why SCG has under performed as an asset class except for brief periods is because of the "lottery effect". I think it was Larry Swedroe who suggested that many people invest in SCG because they are hoping for the "next" ... the next Microsoft, the next Apple, or even the next Tesla.

ARK has been selling innovation as a concept. Of course, we all like successful innovation. ARKK got it right with Tesla. And who knows, they may get it right with some other high growth companies. I'm not an owner but if I were it would have to be for the next several years.

I get what you are saying, and agree that is the reason investors flock to things like this. It is ironic - my largest holding is Apple, but I bought it as a value play in December 2000 when the stock was $18 and they had $13 a share in CASH (not goods/equipment/plant/goodwill. Cold hard cash and equivalent's.) All of these: Apple, Microsoft, Intel...were buyable long after the IPO - you didn't have to catch the initial wave of success.

 

[luckydude]

Back revisiting an old thread and wondering how folks like "RetiredAtThirty-Eigth" are doing.

When I did my "All hail ARK" sarcasm post, ARKK was 149.46, now 60.95. That's almost a 60% loss from my post.

I've had my fair share of losers myself.

Thanks for reviving this thread. Somehow I missed it the first time around. Very entertaining read, especially given how the ARK funds have fared recently.

 

[ZachTB]

Thanks for reviving this thread. Somehow I missed it the first time around. Very entertaining read, especially given how the ARK funds have fared recently.

Indeed; I keeping seeking old wisdom--this thread demonstrates precisely why.

Knowledge of history helps serve as an antidote to any 'gambling' impulses. Generally, I don't make trades or buy things that are trendy; I try to think long and hard before a purchase, with the intent of holding it for decades, through the ups and downs.

Time will tell whether my approach is a good one.

 

[OldShooter]

... Time will tell whether my approach is a good one.

It always has been; DW and I have been through all the bubbles since 1987. This time is never different.

I think, though, that people are underestimating (or missing the point) of Kathy Wood's strategy. She's a fairly experienced manager and is well aware that rocket ships eventually run out of fuel and crash to earth. But that's OK with her because she is in this for the fees. She cooked up a few funds that had rocket ship potential, went into huckster mode, then waited. Fortunately for her, the market did light the fuse and launch the rocket.

Now consider what happened: As the rocket went up, she attracted boatloads of true believers and greater fools, collecting huge fees. The fund price went up and the AUM went up. Double win for her fees. Now, in the waning days as the rocket ship heads towards earth, she is in full throttle huckster mode, trying to keep the greater fools from jumping ship for as long as possible. In the end, she will be back running some fairly inconsequential funds (or retired), having collected a fortune during the rocket ride.

 

[Markola]

How is she a huckster? Maybe 1 in 10 of Wood’s transformational tech stock picks will continue to go parabolic, just like the venture capital investors aim for, vastly outrunning the losers. Only a fool would fail to see that ARK is not for Grandma’s last $50,000.

 

[OldShooter]

How is she a huckster?

Eye of the beholder. She has been saying some pretty outrageous things, especially lately. YMMV.

Maybe 1 in 10 of Wood’s transformational tech stock picks will continue to go parabolic, just like the venture capital investors aim for, vastly outrunning the losers.

Yup. Maybe.

 

[ejman]

After reading this thread and all of the rocket ship references I decided to spend money like a drunken sailor and bought 5 shares of ARKK at $59 ea. It gives me motivation to watch something other than the geo political humanitarian catastrophe currently taking place. Otherwise, my 50/50 portfolio with a value tilt is about as exciting as watching paint dry.

 

[NW-Bound]

After reading this thread and all of the rocket ship references I decided to spend money like a drunken sailor and bought 5 shares of ARKK at $59 ea. It gives me motivation to watch something other than the geo political humanitarian catastrophe currently taking place. Otherwise, my 50/50 portfolio with a value tilt is about as exciting as watching paint dry.

You made me look.

$59? But, ARKK has not been down there, and just brushed $59.81 before market close yesterday, March 4.

You did not say when you bought, but it had to be way back in May 2020, when this thread started.

You then enjoyed the ride from $59 up to $157, and the descent back to $60 now.

I have a feeling you are pulling our leg.

 

[ZachTB]

After reading this thread and all of the rocket ship references I decided to spend money like a drunken sailor and bought 5 shares of ARKK at $59 ea. It gives me motivation to watch something other than the geo political humanitarian catastrophe currently taking place. Otherwise, my 50/50 portfolio with a value tilt is about as exciting as watching paint dry.

They say boring investing is the best investing.

If you really want some excitement, consider crypto, like Bitcoin or Ethereum. Nothing wrong with placing a very small bet on something with outsized potential, as you've described here.

Myself, I'm sticking with the boring path. I'm confident that it'll get me wealthy eventually, as long as I don't screw it up!

 

[ejman]

You made me look.

$59? But, ARKK has not been down there, and just brushed $59.81 before market close yesterday, March 4.

You did not say when you bought, but it had to be way back in May 2020, when this thread started.

You then enjoyed the ride from $59 up to $157, and the descent back to $60 now.

I have a feeling you are pulling our leg.

Leg pulling? Moi? Never! OK, I bought 5 shares 0n 3/4/22 for $299.10, so $59.8199 a share. Jezz, with the folks around here keeping one's feet to the fire one has to be exact to 4 decimal points...

 

[ejman]

They say boring investing is the best investing.

If you really want some excitement, consider crypto, like Bitcoin or Ethereum. Nothing wrong with placing a very small bet on something with outsized potential, as you've described here.

Myself, I'm sticking with the boring path. I'm confident that it'll get me wealthy eventually, as long as I don't screw it up!

I've considered it, just for entertainment purposes as you say but frankly, although I've read about it from a number of sources I must admit I still don't understand exactly how it works, how the block chain process works and what its benefit would be over stocks/etf's which I do think I understand.

 

[luckydude]

Back revisiting an old thread and wondering how folks like "RetiredAtThirty-Eigth" are doing.

It's always interesting to see posters who enjoy success with a particular investment approach are more than happy to share their wins when times are good but disappear when things go south.

This is not to say that I revel in their failures (I myself have a very spotty record when it comes to stock picking so I am particularly unqualified to play the schadenfreude game). But I think it would be interesting if these posters are willing to share their strategy on how to handle/mitigate the downside of their investment approach when the market goes south; their experience might prove useful/educational to other forum members.

 

[OldShooter]

It's always interesting to see posters who enjoy success with a particular investment approach are more than happy to share their wins when times are good but disappear when things go south.

This is not to say that I revel in their failures (I myself have a very spotty record when it comes to stock picking so I am particularly unqualified to play the schadenfreude game). But I think it would be interesting if these posters are willing to share their strategy on how to handle/mitigate the downside of their investment approach when the market goes south; their experience might prove useful/educational to other forum members.

Nassim Taleb calls the missing posts "silent evidence." IMO the absence of this evidence tends to lead people astray in all kinds of decisions. Here is the illustration he uses:

"Diagoras, a nonbeliever in the gods, was shown painted tablets bearing the portraits of some worshippers who prayed, then survived a subsequent shipwreck. The implication was that praying protects you from drowning. Diagoras asked, “Where are the pictures of those who prayed, then drowned?”
​

 

[r3saving]

It's always interesting to see posters who enjoy success with a particular investment approach are more than happy to share their wins when times are good but disappear when things go south.

This is not to say that I revel in their failures (I myself have a very spotty record when it comes to stock picking so I am particularly unqualified to play the schadenfreude game). But I think it would be interesting if these posters are willing to share their strategy on how to handle/mitigate the downside of their investment approach when the market goes south; their experience might prove useful/educational to other forum members.

I'll absolutely come back and admit defeat if it happens. At present, I'm still holding (in the green) and I certainly don't view three years as a long term holding. My strategy on the down side is "hands off" which is the same strategy I exercise with my index holdings.

It seems like multiple people in this forum look at index funds with a long term view while looking at anything else with a short term view.

 

[Markola]

^^^^^ You mean like the “covered calls and naked puts” thread? I don’t choose to play the craps there but will give that crowd credit that most of them don’t hide their many, frequent losses. Some of the stock day gamblers been quiet lately, though.

 

[luckydude]

I'll absolutely come back and admit defeat if it happens. At present, I'm still holding (in the green) and I certainly don't view three years as a long term holding. My strategy on the down side is "hands off" which is the same strategy I exercise with my index holdings.

It seems like multiple people in this forum look at index funds with a long term view while looking at anything else with a short term view.

Thanks for sharing.

On this forum there's definitely a "preference" for buying and holding index funds over other, shall we say "more exciting", investment approaches. I know my own limitations and level of risk tolerance, so aside from RE investment, I stick to index funds, but I will profess a certain level of jealousy mixed with admiration for those who have the balls (for lack of a better term) to take on bigger risks for bigger rewards.

All roads (hopefully) lead to Rome, as the saying goes.

 

[Markola]

I’m interested to understand some of the next wave of transformational technologies that will change our world. Here’s an interview of ARK founder Cathie Wood giving a very accessible, thoughtful overview to Miami Herbert School of Business of several of these technologies.

https://youtu.be/9GH0dm_geJY