Solar, Wind Renewable Energy

[Texas Proud]

Would you have chosen to live near Fukushima?

Would you stay at the place where they relocated you?

Would you have lived 2 miles from Chernobyl, as residents in the city of Pripyat did?

Or even Kyiv, which appears to be about 50 miles to the south as the crow flies?

Well, not in Kyiv right now but is is a lovely city that I would have no problem living if not for the war. When I visited there I was trying to get to Chernobyl for a visit but it was hard to do at that time.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am not defending any for of electricity, but I do not think that just saying we can live off of RE is going to make it so. And the cost to the taxpayers for subsidies for nuclear is MUCH less than RE.

From some of the sites...

As of January 31, 1979, 70 nuclear power plants were licensed to operate in the United States. These plants, having a total capacity of about 50,000 megawatts, provided about 13 percent of the nation's electricity.

Wind and solar power do not provide the same value to the grid as conventional electricity sources. In addition to not operating on-demand, they provide little of the capacity value that is needed to maintain long-term reliability and cannot be relied on to provide the essential reliability services the grid needs to maintain reliability. Instead, they rely on other electricity generators to provide the services they cannot, thus “imposing” those costs on other generators and the grid. Though the wind and solar facilities do not pay these costs, ratepayers do.

See?

Only rolling blackouts can convince people that there's no power when the sun does not shine, and the wind does not blow.

They simply do not appreciate the fact that something else out there other than solar and wind power that keeps the lights and TV on, their AC and fridge humming, their furnace blowing.

 

[explanade]

Half of France's 56 nuclear reactors are off-line, needing repairs which is estimated to cost US$110 billion.

Where did you get this figure?

This article from May says only 12 plants are offline and the reason is to check for stress corrosion.

The French nuclear power operator EDF says that the programme of inspections and repairs related to the stress corrosion issue means it has increased the hit it expects to take to its earnings by a further EUR4.5 billion (USD4.7 million) from the EUR14 billion estimated at the start of May.


EDF's Chooz nuclear power plant in north-eastern France (Image: EDF)
It has also cut again its estimated nuclear output for the current year, to 280-300TWh, compared with the previous expectation of 295-315TWh.

There are currently 12 nuclear power reactors ofline and being inspected for stress corrosion.

In a statement the company said:

Result of the metallurgical examinations carried out on samples taken from the pipes of the auxiliary circuits of the reactors of Civaux 1, Chooz 1 and Penly 1 confirmed the presence of stress corrosion near welds of the RIS (safety injection circuit) and RRA (shutdown reactor cooling circuit) circuits.

Checks and examinations carried out on Chinon B3 confirm the absence of stress corrosion on the SIS circuit. Evidence of stress corrosion was located on a weld of the RRA circuit.

Checks and investigations are ongoing on the other eight prioritised reactors (Civaux 2, Chooz 2, Cattenom 3, Bugey 3, Bugey 4, Flamanville 1, Flamanville 2 and Golfech 1).

https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-up-cost-of-nuclear-plant-outages

Did see another article indicating that France has and expects to buy electricity from other sources, presumably from outside the country, which will also cost billions.

But to re-top its power supplies while dozens of nuclear plants are offline, EDF has been forced to buy electricity at the high prices of the open market, at a projected cost of over €10 billion this year. The move so infuriated EDF’s combative chief executive, Jean-Bernard Lévy, that he made a formal appeal to the government.

With turmoil mounting, the French government threw EDF a €2 billion lifeline in February. But that is hardly enough to resolve its woes.

The debt-laden company also faces risks with a government-backed deal linked to Rosatom, a longtime customer of EDF components and the biggest buyer of powerful French-made Arabelle steam turbines, which are found in both Rosatom and EDF nuclear plants.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/18/business/france-nuclear-power-russia.html

Besides possible nationalization (France already owns 84% of EDF), the recovery plan also depends on building and operating new reactors.

Macron has proposed €51.7 billion to build 14 new plants by 2035.

That is very aggressive, talk about going all-in.

 

[NW-Bound]

Where did you get this figure?

This article from May says only 12 plants are offline and the reason is to check for stress corrosion.

https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-up-cost-of-nuclear-plant-outages

Did see another article indicating that France has and expects to buy electricity from other sources, presumably from outside the country, which will also cost billions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/18/business/france-nuclear-power-russia.html

Besides possible nationalization (France already owns 84% of EDF), the recovery plan also depends on building and operating new reactors.

Macron has proposed €51.7 billion to build 14 new plants by 2035.

That is very aggressive, talk about going all-in.

Your source was dated May 2022. Back early in the year, I read about France shutting down some reactors.

The following Reuters article was dated today, July 8.

It also said only 12 reactors out of 56 were shut down in May.

Now, it says "about half the reactors". They have found more problems.

See: https://www.reuters.com/article/edf...ench-utility-giant-edfs-history-idUKL8N2YP2T4

Another article said the bill would be 90 billion British pounds, which is US$108 billion.

 

[Pellice]

But aren't rolling blackouts happening all over, not constantly, but here and there, from various causes? Grid upgrades, lack of hydroelectric power because of low water levels, wildfires, wars?

Realistically, a mix of power sources is in our foreseeable future. I understand that renewables are still being developed (how does dark Germany get so much of its power from solar?) Nuclear is in the picture, and could be more important, but we simply seem to be unable or unwilling to solve the problem of nuclear waste - all that waste is sitting on site, which was never supposed to happen.

And I can never get out of my mind that the rest of the world wants to have lots more energy than it does now. So we have to compromise, PRUDENTLY, until we come up with better solutions, or a gradually declining population (I took a look at Japan's energy consumption, and it IS declining slightly. I don't know more about it than that, but I'd love to read an article on it).

But there's the rub - who gets to define PRUDENT?

I personally am most afraid of coal right now. The world's temperature has already risen to the point that mitigation, not prevention, of bad outcomes is required. But I can see the use of coal as a temporary emergency measure in Europe, as they adjust to their rather brave decision to cut import of Russian gas. I just want it to be temporary.

 

[explanade]

Interesting, I think I saw another reference that the whole fleet, built out over several decades, cost them about $100 billion.

And this proposal to spend 52 billion USD for 14 more reactors in the next 10-15 years.

So $108 billion would be a very heavy cost to add to the whole bill for nuclear power in France.

But over the decades, I think they exported a lot of power and they probably expect to continue with these new plants.

One bad accident and it could be disastrous.

Imagine an accident which caused them to evacuate a 30-mile radius exclusion zone near a major economic center or a popular tourist destination.

 

[NW-Bound]

... how does dark Germany get so much of its power from solar?

Germany has some solar power, but most of its renewable energy comes from wind mills.

I have posted actual data showing huge variations of Germany renewable energy from day to day. One day, they get more than 45 GW of peak power. Another day, nearly 0.

And that's why they are burning lots of coal and natural gas when the wind does not blow. And now, without natural gas from Russia, they have to make that up with more coal. Ugh!

See actual data from Fraunhofer Institute:

I personally am most afraid of coal right now. The world's temperature has already risen to the point that mitigation, not prevention, of bad outcomes is required. But I can see the use of coal as a temporary emergency measure in Europe, as they adjust to their rather brave decision to cut import of Russian gas. I just want it to be temporary.

Me too. And between coal and nuclear, I believe nuclear is the lesser evil by far.

 

[explanade]

You'd think Germany would cut deals with Southern Europe or get in on some plans for building solar plants in North Africa and sending the power across the Mediterranean.

 

[NW-Bound]

Interesting, I think I saw another reference that the whole fleet, built out over several decades, cost them about $100 billion.

And this proposal to spend 52 billion USD for 14 more reactors in the next 10-15 years.

So $108 billion would be a very heavy cost to add to the whole bill for nuclear power in France.

But over the decades, I think they exported a lot of power and they probably expect to continue with these new plants.

One bad accident and it could be disastrous.

Imagine an accident which caused them to evacuate a 30-mile radius exclusion zone near a major economic center or a popular tourist destination.

Well, France can spend $108 billion to build wind mills and solar arrays instead.

I don't know off-hand how much power they can get from that, but just like what happens with Germany, when the wind does not blow, you still have to burn coal.

Burn, coal baby, burn... So, better keep those thermal plants in tip top shape, and in standby mode. Other European countries are doing that now.

 

[Gumby]

Would you have chosen to live near Fukushima?

Would you stay at the place where they relocated you?

Would you have lived 2 miles from Chernobyl, as residents in the city of Pripyat did?

Or even Kyiv, which appears to be about 50 miles to the south as the crow flies?

When you can explain to me how the design of the Chernobyl plant differed from that of the Fukushima plants (and all other Light Water Reactors in the US) and why that made the accidents different, then you might know enough for me to have a productive discussion with you. Until then, you are just fear mongering and arguing for the sake of arguing.

You might also collect data on the following

1. How many people died from radiation released by the TMI, Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents?

2. How many people died while mining coal (mine cave ins and explosions, black lung), as a consequence of the combustion products released to the air, as a consequence of collapses of slurry pit dams and the like?

By the way, I spent a few years of my life living 24 hours a day within 150 feet of a 78 mW Navy nuclear power plant, and a few more years in the control room of a 1250 mW commercial nuclear generating station, which was a few miles from my house. So, yes, I live my beliefs.

 

[NW-Bound]

The sad thing is even after Europe has resorted to burning more coal, it is not a simple matter to find that coal to burn.

Without import from Russia, that coal has to come from farther away.

Germany imported around 18.2 million tonnes of Russian coal for power generation and 2.3 million tonnes for other uses last year, accounting for about half of its total requirement.

A couple of weeks ago, a German minister said the new plan was to have 1-month worth of coal stockpiled next to the coal burning plants. And they were preparing to shut down manufacturing plants to save the energy for residential homes to keep people from freezing this winter.

And we are just past the summer solstice. They know this coming winter looks bleak.

 

[NW-Bound]

You'd think Germany would cut deals with Southern Europe or get in on some plans for building solar plants in North Africa and sending the power across the Mediterranean.

Does the sun shine 24/7/365 in Spain, or in North Africa?

 

[aja8888]

You'd think Germany would cut deals with Southern Europe or get in on some plans for building solar plants in North Africa and sending the power across the Mediterranean.

I'm sure the Germans are exploring every available alternative for help. I would bet though, given their recent experiences with wind power that natural gas and coal are more reliable alternatives.

Also, it's entirely possible that north African countries are not interested in supplying solar or wind power across the Mediterranean due to line losses in any kind of transmission conduits that would have to be built and maintained by them. It's not as simple to just drop an insulated line in the water.

 

[NW-Bound]

If something like the above is done, it will be financed by European countries. North Africa will just be leasing the land, so to speak.

And it is of course doable to run high voltage DC lines on the sea floor. You can cross at the narrow Gibraltar Straight if that helps.

The North Sea Link is a 1,400 MW high-voltage direct current (HVDC) submarine power cable between Norway and the United Kingdom.

At 720 km (450 mi) it is the longest subsea interconnector in the world. The cable became operational on 1 October 2021.

The above cable is being used right now, as we speak, to pump power from Norway to the UK. And this power is rerouted to France, also by undersea HVDC cables, to bail the latter out during the current heatwave.

I just read this today on a news site.

But again, the harder problem than generating renewable energy is to store it for use when the sun does not shine, and the wind does not blow. Norway is in a unique situation to help out, because hydro power is more reliable. Even with a drought, your reservoirs still take months to dry up, not overnight.

 

[aja8888]

If something like the above is done, it will be financed by European countries. North Africa will just be leasing the land, so to speak.

And it is of course doable to run high voltage DC lines on the sea floor. You can cross at the narrow Gibraltar Straight if that helps.




The above cable is being used right now, as we speak, to pump power from Norway to the UK. And this power is rerouted to France, also by undersea HVDC cables, to bail the latter out during the current heatwave.

I just read this today on a news site.

But again, the harder problem than generating renewable energy is to store it for use when the sun does not shine, and the wind does not blow. Norway is in a unique situation to help out, because hydro power is more reliable. Even with a drought, your reservoirs still take months to dry up, not overnight.

You keep saying this but folks aren't really absorbing it:

"But again, the harder problem than generating renewable energy is to store it for use when the sun does not shine, and the wind does not blow."

 

[mpeirce]

If people hate renewables to the point of willing to live next to nuclear or coal plants or nuclear waste dumps, I will not blame them for making that choice.

I don’t hate unreliables like wind and solar, but I do like nuclear better. And I live less than five miles from a nuclear power station. I can see it out my window right now.

People around here are generally supporters of nuclear power. We hope they use the site for expansion once gen 4 plants are available in the US. The last thing we want is rolling brown or black outs.

 

[NW-Bound]

The "mother of all undersea HVDC cable" is the one being proposed to pump power from Northern Australia to Singapore.

At 3,750 km (2330 mi.), it will far eclipse other HVDC submarine feedlines, such as the North Sea Link above.

The “Mike Cannon-Brookes” -backed Sun Cable project in the Northern Territory involves a plan to lay a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cable between Darwin and Singapore to export power. The project contains a 3750 kilometers long undersea cables which will be “the longest” in the world...

But the sun does not shine 24/7 in Northen Australia either. Ah hah, that's why they are also building a BIG battery of 36-42 GWh of storage. A true "mother of all batteries".

For comparison, the Moss Landing battery being built for PG&E stores 1.2 GWh.

 

[NW-Bound]

You keep saying this but folks aren't really absorbing it:

What happens is that people do not have any notion of how much electricity we really use. The only batteries laymen are familiar with are just the bitty batteries in their electronic devices.

And that's why they don't even appreciate what it takes to charge an EV. They don't know how much is stored in an EV vs. their smartphone. Just plug it into the wall outlet. No big deal.

And you would need multiple EV batteries per household if you want to be off the grid, and not having to run a generator. And if you want to run factories, offices, stores on batteries... Oh man!

You need to shut down all other manufacturing activities and dedicate everyone and everything to digging for metals and minerals, and to building batteries now.

Forget the EVs. Just build the batteries first. You need the batteries more to run your house, unless you plan to sleep in your car.

 

[aja8888]

What happens is that people do not have any notion of how much electricity we really use. The only batteries laymen are familiar with are just the bitty batteries in their electronic devices.

And that's why they don't even appreciate what it takes to charge an EV. They don't know how much is stored in an EV vs. their smartphone. Just plug it into the wall outlet. No big deal.

And you would need multiple EV batteries per household if you want to be off the grid, and not having to run a generator. And if you want to run factories, offices, stores on batteries... Oh man!

You need to shut down all other manufacturing activities and dedicate everyone and everything to digging for metals and minerals, and to building batteries now.

Forget the EVs. Just build the batteries first. You need the batteries more to run your house, unless you plan to sleep in your car.

When I was Engineering Manager in Ct of a brass mill that melted and cast 100,000,000 pounds of non ferrous alloys, our casting shop had 13,800 volt feeders. I don't remember how much electricity we used, but we were Northeast Utilities largest single customer. I recall putting in a demand controller to catch the power spikes back then (1970s).

Wind or solar would even be enough to even keep the lights on in that plant. We employed 1,500 or so people and had manufacturing of copper water tube, brass rod, sheet and strip. Under roofs we had about 1,000,000 sq. ft. of manufacturing.

This is the kind of thing that the RE folks can't come to deal with.

 

[Chuckanut]

What people do not understand is that while renewable energy from the sun and wind can be so abundant at times, if they are to build sufficient storage devices to save that energy to use at night and when the wind does not blow, it is no longer cheap.

Ignorant people like the cheap solar power during the day, but at night they revert to power from coal or nuclear which they take for granted.
.

+1

People often forget to look at the total cost movie. Instead they look at a snapshot of just the amount saved. I am reminded of a I knew person who would drive far out of his way to save a few dollars on a purchase. He argues that the gas only cost him $3 and he saved $5. But, he forgets to include the cost of the wear and tear on his car - tires, engine, transmission, brakes, oil and filter, etc. etc. etc.

 

[NW-Bound]

When I was Engineering Manager in Ct of a brass mill that melted and cast 100,000,000 pounds of non ferrous alloys, our casting shop had 13,800 volt feeders. I don't remember how much electricity we used, but we were Northeast Utilities largest single customer. I recall putting in a demand controller to catch the power spikes back then (1970s).

Wind or solar would even be enough to even keep the lights on in that plant. We employed 1,500 or so people and had manufacturing of copper water tube, brass rod, sheet and strip. Under roofs we had about 1,000,000 sq. ft. of manufacturing.

This is the kind of thing that the RE folks can't come to deal with.

I have not been inside an industrial plant like that, but have read that aluminum smelting takes a lot of electricity. So, let's find out how much electricity a smelter takes.

An aluminium smelter consists of a large number of cells (pots) in which the electrolysis takes place. A typical smelter contains anywhere from 300 to 720 pots, each of which produces about a ton of aluminium a day..

So, let's say our smelter has 500 pots, and produces 500 tons/day of Al.

According to Alcoa, the world’s largest producer of aluminium, the best smelters use about 13 kilowatt hours (46.8 megajoules) of electrical energy to produce one kilogram of aluminium; the worldwide average is closer to 15 kWh/kg (54 MJ/kg)

The number just falls out from there. Our smelter will need 15 kWh/kg * 500,000 kg/day = 7,500,000 kWh/day.

Now, how long is a production day? Running only 1 shift or 24 hours?

Let's spread out the load, and run 24 hours. Then, the power demand is 312.5 MW.

If we want to work only 8 hours, then the power would be 3x or 937.5 MW, or rounded up to 1 Giga watt.

Let's go build a solar farm to get this power.

Oh wait. The sun does not shine 24 hours. So, the 8-hr number of 1 GW is closer.

Here's a typical 1-MW solar farm. We will need 1000 of these!

But the above 1 MW solar farm only produces its peak 1 MW at noon. Early and late in the day, the power will be lower due to the sun angle. And it will vary with the season too.

Let's then look at the annual power output.

Our smelter will need 2.7 billion kWh/year. Where I am in the Southwest, a 1-MW solar farm will generate 1.776 million kWh/year.

We then need 1541 solar farms, each of 1 MW like the one in the photo.


PS. The cost to build a 1 MW solar farm is about US$1M not including the cost of land. Our total 1.5 GW solar farm will cost $1.5 billion. Space wise, a 1 MW solar farm takes 5 acres. Then, the 1.5 GW farm will be 12 square miles.


PPS. The world total aluminum production was 65.3 million tons in 2020. That's the output of 358 smelters like ours. The total solar farm will be 4,300 square miles. That's almost the size of Los Angeles County!

 

[explanade]

We probably don't have a true accounting of how many people died or had their lives cut short because of Chernobyl.

The Soviets tried to suppress information about the disaster but people in neighboring countries were detecting it, including like in the milk of cows in Sweden or something like that.

I don't know how much economic loss Japan has suffered and will continue to suffer from having to put up an exclusion zone. 150k people were evacuated but a lot of wildlife has returned, because of the absence of humans.

I remember though there were reports of elevated radiation in Tokyo, 238 kilometers away and over 280 kilometers by road.

Presumably researchers will be tracking incidence of certain cancer rates in nearby areas for years or decades.

 

[NW-Bound]

Texas is stressing its grid again. It's getting hotter, yet the wind dies out.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas forecast an all-time record peakload for July 8, possibly followed by more records through July 11, as a heat wave brought triple-digit high temperatures and idled wind turbines, boosting day-ahead on-peak power and spot gas pricing.

As of 1:30 pm CT, ERCOT forecast load to peak at 78.6 GW on July 8, well above the record of 77.5 GW set July 5, and the peakload forecasts for July 9-11 also exceed the existing record, ranging from a low of 77.7 GW on July 10 to a high of 80.6 GW on July 11.

As of 3:40 pm CT, ERCOT reported system demand at 77,818 MW, slightly more than July 5's record of 77,460 MW. Wind output had fallen to 4,082 MW, about 30% of the average output level for all of June...

 

[JoeWras]

I'm not knocking wind, let me get that out first.

But turbines have issues too, and these things need to be discussed. They are high maintenance machines. The airfoils take a lot of abuse from particulates and wear out. Some can be refurbished, others are stressed and need to be replaced. The composite blades are a difficult-to-recycle form of waste. Blades off the coast of England failed much earlier (less than a decade) than expected, something about the sea effects.

And then there is the heavy metal infused gear oil.

And so on. Everything has an impact.

 

[Rianne]

I have not been inside an industrial plant like that, but have read that aluminum smelting takes a lot of electricity. So, let's find out how much electricity a smelter takes.





So, let's say our smelter has 500 pots, and produces 500 tons/day of Al.





The number just falls out from there. Our smelter will need 15 kWh/kg * 500,000 kg/day = 7,500,000 kWh/day.

Now, how long is a production day? Running only 1 shift or 24 hours?

Let's spread out the load, and run 24 hours. Then, the power demand is 312.5 MW.

If we want to work only 8 hours, then the power would be 3x or 937.5 MW, or rounded up to 1 Giga watt.

Let's go build a solar farm to get this power.

Oh wait. The sun does not shine 24 hours. So, the 8-hr number of 1 GW is closer.

Here's a typical 1-MW solar farm. We will need 1000 of these!

But the above 1 MW solar farm only produces its peak 1 MW at noon. Early and late in the day, the power will be lower due to the sun angle. And it will vary with the season too.

Let's then look at the annual power output.

Our smelter will need 2.7 billion kWh/year. Where I am in the Southwest, a 1-MW solar farm will generate 1.776 million kWh/year.

We then need 1541 solar farms, each of 1 MW like the one in the photo.


PS. The cost to build a 1 MW solar farm is about US$1M not including the cost of land. Our total 1.5 GW solar farm will cost $1.5 billion. Space wise, a 1 MW solar farm takes 5 acres. Then, the 1.5 GW farm will be 12 square miles.


PPS. The world total aluminum production was 65.3 million tons in 2020. That's the output of 358 smelters like ours. The total solar farm will be 4,300 square miles. That's almost the size of Los Angeles County!

OMG, that just scared the cr-p out of me. Ok, I'm glad I'm old, had a nice life, and will die in the next 20 years or so.