Northforker
Recycles dryer sheets
Looks like we have definitely passed the peak:
I definitely wouldn't say definitely.
Looks like we have definitely passed the peak:
Good point. But unfortunately government policy has placed us on a path of energy shortage. And we spent our emergency reserves for politics. So we are very vulnerable.All inflation bets are off if we have a significant gulf hurricane - what a pleasant thought! We're very vulnerable right now on many fronts. Not much slack in the supply chain and folks are champing at the bit for wage increases. Could be the perfect storm. YMMV
Yes. This will take time. Folks should buckle in and get comfortable.^^^^^^^^^
We have passed "A" peak according to the graph. Let us hope it is THE peak. But as mentioned, we're one rail strike, one hurricane, one terrorist attack, etc., away from another peak. YMMV
I've been following the linked site for decent inflation analysis and their inflation prediction graph has usually been pretty solid. Check it out here - https://inflationdata.com/articles/2022/09/14/august-2022-is-actually-disinflationary/
To see how well this inflation predictor has done historically, go here -
https://fintrend.com/charts/moore-inflation-predictor-mip/
It is easy to see. CPI flat in July, up .1 percent in August. It is a huge improvement from prior months.
Some how the idea that the CPI will still be increasing at close to a 6% annual rate next July if the Fed tightens quickly is not a comforting thought.
I have seen several people mention that gasoline prices have plunged, but that is likely temporary due to record setting oil releases from the oil reserves. It is currently scheduled to stop in November and has led to the lowest strategic reserves in 40 years.
Kinda nice to have lower prices, but I'd rather have strategic reserves in case the actual oil supply of the USA were threatened by, say, war, storm, earth quake, other natural or man-made disasters. YMMV
Or say, a national railroad strike, since RRs transport almost all ethanol fuel from the Midwest.
You mean like using the corn for food or something??Heh, heh, maybe those of us stuck in the midwest can find something better to do with all that ethanol - rather than just burning it up in our cars.[emoji23]
Why has gold and silver done basically nothing with all this inflation? It gives me hope it is transitory.
I have seen several people mention that gasoline prices have plunged, but that is likely temporary due to record setting oil releases from the oil reserves. It is currently scheduled to stop in November
I remember the 1970s, gold and silver went crazy. Logically they are tangibles and rare so they should be moving, but they are sideways to down. Puzzling.Contrary to popular belief, precious metals have a less than 50% chance of performing well in an inflationary cycle. Energy, consumer staples, and Healthcare all do better on average. Gold and silver's lackluster performance is not a sign of transitory inflation, just consistent with their prior performance in such cycles.
Read more here -
https://www.hartfordfunds.com/dam/en/docs/pub/whitepapers/WP597.pdf
In the 1970s gold prices were normalizing after being artificially held lower by artificial price fixing for 40 years. [Note to mods: Not trying to be political, just stating what happened.] "Gold is a hedge for inflation" is a narrative and not necessarily a fact under all circumstances. "Logic" doesn't move markets. Belief and emotion does.I remember the 1970s, gold and silver went crazy. Logically they are tangibles and rare so they should be moving, but they are sideways to down. Puzzling.
What happens in November?
Oh...
What happens in November?
Oh...
Why has gold and silver done basically nothing with all this inflation? It gives me hope it is transitory.