The Electric Vehicle Thread

[explanade]

I don't mind public transportation, especially with traffic and parking hassles in big, crowded cities.

But after covid, I'm not eager to share airspace in crowded spaces.

I've taken buses and trains and plane flights in the last couple of years but not optimal thing to do.

 

[Andre1969]

Just a bit more than a month ago, Cathie Wood made this prediction: "Tesla is grabbing a disproportionate share — and will continue to do so — of the market, that we think by 2027 will account for 85% to 95% of all cars sold in in the world."

Wowza. The world's car production is 97 million in 2018. Is Tesla going to make 82 million cars 5 years from now?

Most likely that's 85-95% of the EV market. Not total light-vehicle market. I googled around and one source said they estimate that by 2025, EVs might make up about 10% of the light-vehicle market.

 

[audreyh1]

They are 1% now (as of end of 2021) according to the Argonne National Lab Nov 2022 report and this includes plug-in hybrids.

 

[NW-Bound]

Most likely that's 85-95% of the EV market. Not total light-vehicle market. I googled around and one source said they estimate that by 2025, EVs might make up about 10% of the light-vehicle market.

Investors used to place Tesla at a valuation much larger than the total sum of all other car makers.

So, they expected Tesla to make cars for the entire world, and then some more, like putting solar panels on everyone's roof, and Powerwalls in everyone's garage.

Perhaps they have changed their mind some.

 

[NW-Bound]

This is how they keep an ICE car warm in Yakutia (Siberia).

And then, when you get the car to start, here's what coming out of its exhaust.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Buying an Electric car at the moment is a BTD or an I feel good doing it, or a talking point endeavor. No monetary value at all. In fact, it is probably throwing money away. JMHO, I could be wrong.

 

[REWahoo]

Buying an Electric car at the moment is a BTD or an I feel good doing it, or a talking point endeavor. No monetary value at all. In fact, it is probably throwing money away. JMHO, I could be wrong.

^ That could be labelled a trollish post. JMHO, I could be wrong.

 

[audreyh1]

Buying an Electric car at the moment is a BTD or an I feel good doing it, or a talking point endeavor. No monetary value at all. In fact, it is probably throwing money away. JMHO, I could be wrong.

^ That could be labelled a trollish post. JMHO, I could be wrong.

Agree with REWahoo. You have no idea why any individual chooses to buy an EV and it’s ridiculous to assign a generic motive/broad brush. JMHO, I could be wrong.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

^ That could be labelled a trollish post. JMHO, I could be wrong.

I disagree, I really think it is a waste of money buying an electric car (today) as the tech is really not there yet. Unless YOU own one of course. Watch some long-term reviews about owning electric cars. The math simply does not work. Unless it makes you feel good of course. Early adopters always bear the brunt of the costs.

Do the math. Cost of car, costs of all expenses, installing fast chargers etc. divided by the miles. My neighbor has had one (Tesla model S) for 5 years and still says he has not got his money's worth.

 

[audreyh1]

The tech is really not there yet?

9000 miles across country and counting. My travels must be all in my imagination!

 

[NW-Bound]

Buying an Electric car at the moment is a BTD or an I feel good doing it, or a talking point endeavor. No monetary value at all. In fact, it is probably throwing money away. JMHO, I could be wrong.

Does this apply to all EVs?

Are all ICE cars worth their price?

I am asking as an ICE car owner.

 

[Andre1969]

I dunno about BTD, but I still view EVs as sort of a plaything for the rich. Nothing wrong with that, but they're just not the vehicle for everybody. Of course, you can apply "BTD" or "plaything for the rich" to just about everything. Do I need a 65" tv? No. Did I really need an Intellivision instead of an Atari VCS for my 12th birthday? No. Do I need a full-sized pickup with a Pentroof (sorry, I've heard it's not a "true" Hemi) V8? No. Do I need a 4 bedroom house on 6+ acres with a 50,000+ gallon swimming pool? No. But all those things are nice to have, if you enjoy them.

About the best advice out there is to buy want you want, enjoy it, and don't worry about trying to get others to validate your purchases for you. I've had people ask me why I needed that much house (because I wanted it), why I needed that big of a pool (it came with the house...what am I supposed to do, fill part of it in?), do I really need a truck? (not that often, but I like it and it didn't cost as much as you probably think it did), and finally "What? Atari isn't good enough for him?" (No, Atari SUCKED! )

If we only bought things we really needed, the world would be a pretty boring place.

 

[explanade]

It would be a waste if EVs depreciated much more quickly, like have no secondary market whatsoever, compared to ICE cars.

 

[RetiredAt55.5]

I thought of this thread Christmas eve when I got this email from my electric company -

"As our communities continue to experience frigid weather, PJM, the regional grid operator that includes PECO, has asked for consumers across its 13 states and DC to look for ways to safely conserve electricity until 10 a.m. tomorrow.

If your health permits, please consider reducing the use of your electricity until 10 a.m. tomorrow. Conserving electricity as much as possible will help ensure adequate power supplies. Here are a few ways you can pitch in this holiday weekend:

Set your thermostat a few degrees lower, if its safe to do so
Postpone doing laundry or running dishwasher
Turn off lights and appliances when you don't need to use them
PJM continues to carefully monitor the power supply conditions. PJM is coordinating efforts among generators, power suppliers and local utilities to do everything possible to keep power flowing in the region."

PJM Interconnection is a regional transmission organization (RTO) that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.

I wonder how PJM is going to handle a ramp up of EV's in the coming years.

 

[audreyh1]

I thought of this thread Christmas eve when I got this email from my electric company -

"As our communities continue to experience frigid weather, PJM, the regional grid operator that includes PECO, has asked for consumers across its 13 states and DC to look for ways to safely conserve electricity until 10 a.m. tomorrow.

If your health permits, please consider reducing the use of your electricity until 10 a.m. tomorrow. Conserving electricity as much as possible will help ensure adequate power supplies. Here are a few ways you can pitch in this holiday weekend:

Set your thermostat a few degrees lower, if its safe to do so
Postpone doing laundry or running dishwasher
Turn off lights and appliances when you don't need to use them
PJM continues to carefully monitor the power supply conditions. PJM is coordinating efforts among generators, power suppliers and local utilities to do everything possible to keep power flowing in the region."

PJM Interconnection is a regional transmission organization (RTO) that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.

I wonder how PJM is going to handle a ramp up of EV's in the coming years.

In 2021, charging EVs accounted for only 0.15% of all US electricity consumption according to Argonne National Lab. There is a ways to go. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/11/american-evs-reduced-gasoline-consumption-by-just-0-54-in-2021/

However, if cold temps are challenging your electricity providers now, there are already issues even without the EVs.

 

[Samsung4321]

Marvellous, if one prefers spending their life sitting on their butts.

See how it works when the electric is out.

Ski / snowshoe / walk to grocery shop?

In an electric car bogged remotely in snow with a frozen battery that won't run the heat pump?

 

[ken830]

It's nice that all 4 Tesla models are in the top ten (#1, #2, #5, & #6) American-made vehicle index, but I'm sad that they are the only EVs on the list.

https://www.cars.com/american-made-index/

 

[Sunset]

As far as I've seen, Honolulu is one of the few cities where THE BUS is so good and so ubiquitous that most people COULD live without a car. As an old guy, I qualify for a bus pass that's really cheap. Busses run past our condo - even late into the night and early in the morning. YET, because I can afford to, I prefer to drive. No interest in using THE BUS even though it's the best I've ever seen. YMMV

When we visited, we used the buses and they were great and cheap.
Very handy for getting around.

 

[RetiredAt55.5]

However, if cold temps are challenging your electricity providers now, there are already issues even without the EVs.

Exactly!

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Buying an Electric car at the moment is a BTD or an I feel good doing it, or a talking point endeavor. No monetary value at all. In fact, it is probably throwing money away. JMHO, I could be wrong.

When March of '23 gets here that will mark 5 years of Tesla ownership for me. I used to spend 4K a year on gasoline.

According to you, saving 20K on fuel is of no monetary value at all.

 

[Samsung4321]

When March of '23 gets here that will mark 5 years of Tesla ownership for me. I used to spend 4K a year on gasoline.

According to you, saving 20K on fuel is of no monetary value at all.

= $4,000 per y / $1 per Litre * 10 km / Litre
= 40,000 km / y.

Same cost as petrol fuelled car when finance and depreciation included?

 

[Bigdawg]

When March of '23 gets here that will mark 5 years of Tesla ownership for me. I used to spend 4K a year on gasoline.

According to you, saving 20K on fuel is of no monetary value at all.

Rough calculation suggests about $1500/yr in charging costs. Plus your Tesla initial cost is higher. EV's work for some people in some cases. I've been looking at hybrids. Not ready to pull the trigger yet.

 

[Andre1969]

That had me curious to look at my fuel records. I've spent $4750.67 total in fuel for my 2003 Regal, dating back to its first fill-up on 6/7/2017, which was soon after I inherited it. It's also gone 39,374 miles in that timeframe, and burned through 1826.8 gallons, for a total average of 21.55 mpg. It can break 30 mpg on a highway run, but most of my driving is local, and my driving has tapered off considerably since I started working from home. I had been doing about 14-15,000 miles per year, but lately it's more like 2500-3000.

An EV wouldn't make sense for me, from a strictly financial standpoint, but to be honest, at this point nothing would. Unless something truly catastrophic happened to the car, or some part broke that was no longer manufactured, and turned the car into a lawn ornament, it's just cheaper to fix it than buy new/newer. Eventually it might get unreliable to the point that I get fed up with it, but there's an old saying..."Old GM cars run bad longer than most cars run at all!"

 

[ShokWaveRider]

When March of '23 gets here that will mark 5 years of Tesla ownership for me. I used to spend 4K a year on gasoline.

According to you, saving 20K on fuel is of no monetary value at all.

Yes, you are correct, for us the cost of initial ownership and the inconvenience having to charge the car outweighs the benefits. My time is simply worth more ... to me.

I personally would not want to drive around in a small EV just to say I do. I would not mind a Tesla Plaid Model S, but then the cost would outweigh the benefits and it would spend more time in my garage than on the road. I would still have a reliable sensible ICE car to back it up. Currently we just have one ICE car and it works out fine.

What would be better for us is a Hybrid that has a small fossil fuel driven generator that's only job was to efficiently charge the batteries on the go so one could do 800 - 900 miles a day without a refuel.

As I implied before, I do not think the Tech is really there yet. When an Electric car can do ~1000 between charges then it would be more practical, until then, it is not for us. Again, it is different for everyone. I am sure the feel-good factor, bragging rights and thinking they are helping the environment is of more value to others than it is for us. No need to get adversarial.

I still stand by original comments that as of this time they are of no value to us. That may change, but not for a few years yet I am sure.

 

[DallasGuy]

Some people in this forum like to make the decision to purchase an EV as a financial decision only. I don't drive much or take many long trips (if at all) yet I still purchased a Chevy Bolt EUV. Why? Because I got tired of having to go to a gas station to fill up (rather than just plug in at home). I got tired of having to get oil changes and other maintenance issues taken care of that only gas powered cars have (EV's have much less maintenance).

Was purchasing an EV the best for me from strictly a financial point of view? Of course, not. But I wanted an affordable easy to use, easy to drive vehicle. Everyone has their own reasons for purchasing various vehicles. I'm guessing that some of the people that are knocking EV's for not being a good financial decision would purchase a $40K+ gas powered car where a $25K gas powered car would be perfectly fine alternative and in the long run would save them money.

As far as driving in cold weather and not having my EV start. I've had that happen to me with a gas powered car back when I lived in MN 30+ years ago. That is not just an EV problem. Fortunately I live in TX now and that isn't a worry for me and my EV.

Tesla will continue to lose market share once other car makers start selling more EV's and especially more EV's in the "under $40k" pricing. The "non Tesla" EV car market is basically just taking off now. https://electrek.co/2022/11/29/tesla-owns-us-ev-market-but-losing-market-shares-data/