ugh almost ready to give in to panic

ziggy29 said:
How do you think I feel? I'm the one who ignored the voice in my head telling me to bail out on Halloween last year when the markets (and my portfolio) were at an all-time high, and now I sit 12% below that...
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What would you have said if you'd bailed last Hallowe'en and the market was up another 12% now?

More importantly, when is that little voice going to tell you to start buying?
 
That's the point. A person may pick the exact point to bail, but after that its more important to pick when to get back in.

I bailed my 401k to cash at the right time in 2000 when my boss and I had about the same 401k amounts. He stayed in. I missed the right time when I got back in and his balance today is more than 11% greater than mine. I'm staying in no matter what this time.

here's a link showing volatility of 2000-2004 that doesnt make now look too bad

Stock Market Downturn Of 2002 Dow January Lost Value 2000
 
Milton said:
ejman, you could make a good living, if you're prepared to work under contract to short sellers! :D
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Actually, both shorts and longs could make lots of money from my guidance - just do exactly the opposite of what I do.....:eek:
 
The American stock market has always been resilient, but does that mean it always will be. The Japanese stock market was at 39,000 back in the late 80’s. Almost 20 years later it now it sits at around 13,000. Who is to say that could not happen to the stock markets in this country.
 
Vizini said:
The American stock market has always been resilient, but does that mean it always will be. The Japanese stock market was at 39,000 back in the late 80’s. Almost 20 years later it now it sits at around 13,000. Who is to say that could not happen to the stock markets in this country.
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Not me. But I am not predicting that outcome. I do think we are a little spoiled though, always thinking something bad couldn't happen in the great US of A. The way this country is run with the deficit spending and all, our future could include some painful times. I only wish I knew.
 
I prefer up to down, since I'm long the markets. Having said that, we're still in "shallow" bear territory. If you're panicking now, time to 1) revisit your allocation, and 2) turn off [-]MTV[/-] CNBC...
 
Vizini said:
The American stock market has always been resilient, but does that mean it always will be. The Japanese stock market was at 39,000 back in the late 80’s. Almost 20 years later it now it sits at around 13,000. Who is to say that could not happen to the stock markets in this country.
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Umm, invest in bonds, energy, INTERNATIONAL companies, and CDs? You don't need to make your great money off of the AMERICAN stock market, but Japan's problems were quite separate from ours.
 
CitricAcid said:
but Japan's problems were quite separate from ours.
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If you're into demographics, the similarities are there. When their baby boom generation got older, they stopped spending and started saving like mad. No consumption, bad stock market. The advice to diversify is right on.

They had other problems but we sure have enough of our own with the subprime mess, etc. these days.
 
Wingerun said:
was at 14K now near 11K heading toward 8K we are in for one heck of a down spin

The market is going toward real scary territory.

Thank the hedge funds the fake money guys the weak dollar and the price of crude oil, which is as important as darn water.
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You're wrong, but that's ok...........;)
 
huskerblue said:
If you're into demographics, the similarities are there. When their baby boom generation got older, they stopped spending and started saving like mad. No consumption, bad stock market. The advice to diversify is right on.

They had other problems but we sure have enough of our own with the subprime mess, etc. these days.
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Good point. I am thinking, though, that if all the other baby boomers are saving and increasing their portfolios like I am, probably at least SOME of them are buying stock index funds like I am. You'd think that would drive the market up, regardless of the underlying economics. :'( I can dream, anyway.
 
huskerblue said:
If you're into demographics, the similarities are there. When their baby boom generation got older, they stopped spending and started saving like mad. No consumption, bad stock market. The advice to diversify is right on.

They had other problems but we sure have enough of our own with the subprime mess, etc. these days.
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I think the point is that, for the global investor, it doesn't matter that Japan's market took a dive if you were diversified into, say, US stocks at the same time. Likewise, if the US economy is sunsetting, then it doesn't matter if you've diversified into other economies that are now starting to take off.
 
HFWR said:
I prefer up to down, since I'm long the markets. Having said that, we're still in "shallow" bear territory. If you're panicking now, time to 1) revisit your allocation, and 2) turn off [-]MTV[/-] CNBC...
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I didnt think anybody on these boards even had cable:angel:
 
maddythebeagle said:
I didnt think anybody on these boards even had cable:angel:
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Does satellite count?

Though in reality, after the February 2009 over-the-air dust settles and stabilizes, I may be looking to ditch the dish as well. I'm getting tired of paying close to $1000 a year for mostly crap I rarely watch.
 
My point, originally, was that you can be well diversified over the entire globe that one country's market is/should not be what your entire retirement rests upon.

Also, there are SOME similarities with Japan's demographics, but I was thinking on an entirely different note. Japanese real estate was absolutely taking off and was ridiculous, pushing up to above $3000 per square foot and as the real estate continued, 50-year and 100-year mortgages were invented and peddled on the homebyuers (similar to interest-only mortgages) and when this caused the bubble to pop with a very high central bank rate to control inflation and the yen, deflation started. When deflation comes in, people spend less because they can buy more a week from now than they can today by just holding on to it. And, as companies start to see declining sales, they lower prices, which fuel into the spiral. That is the major reason the Japanese economy went stagnant for a good 8 years.
 
ziggy29 said:
Does satellite count?

Though in reality, after the February 2009 over-the-air dust settles and stabilizes, I may be looking to ditch the dish as well. I'm getting tired of paying close to $1000 a year for mostly crap I rarely watch.
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My situation is the opposite. Without cable or satellite, I couldn't get most of the channels I like to watch, so my tv would only be useful for watching dvds...

Still, I pay a lot for that "privilege"...
 
HFWR said:
My situation is the opposite. Without cable or satellite, I couldn't get most of the channels I like to watch, so my tv would only be useful for watching dvds...

Still, I pay a lot for that "privilege"...
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Well, there's supposed to be an HD DVR coming out soon for over-air signals that doesn't require a subscription like TiVo. If I could find just enough stuff to record on free TV to watch when I'm ready -- and perhaps teamed with a Netflix subscription for 1/5 the cost of satellite TV -- that piece of hardware could be the kick in the butt I need if it's as advertised. And I'm 60 hilly miles away from the antenna farm in Austin, but the digital and HD signals come in loud and clear without amplification.
 
But HGTV, Food Network, DIY, etc. have no broadcast equivalent...

"Blow up your tv..." John Prine
 
Hmmm - Jan 1993 - age 49 layed off, in the stretch while Mr Market did it's 90's thing, I went from unemployed, dial up webtv and no cable/satellite to:

crap I'm ER not unemployed, computer on cable(mid speed), VIOP, standard cable package, AND a cell phone.

:D I even call myself a Boglehead after they split from Morningstar and didn't charge five bucks.

All praise to Mr Bogle, Mr Market, time and chance in balanced index funds.

I can almost hear those Vanguard computers humming away clear out here near Kansas City as they rebalance - buying stocks hand over fist to hold my Target 2015 asset allocation.

Toward fall greed and lust may prompt me to switch some of my Norwegian widow stocks(like Con Ed) for something a little er 'more racy'. Of course if the Saint's do well - I may just watch football.

heh heh heh - :cool:
 
HFWR said:
But HGTV, Food Network, DIY, etc. have no broadcast equivalent...

"Blow up your tv..." John Prine
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Actually, we only have broadcast TV in our vacation house and we have an antenna that pulls in a bunch of digital channels including one associated with the PBS stations called "Create". The PBS digitals usually come in groups of 3 and it is usually the third {ie, 12-3, 32-3, etc.}.

It is nothing but cooking, house fix up, etc. shows! It's really a good channel. Makes me think I can dump the expensive cable at home.
 
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huskerblue said:
Actually, we only have broadcast TV in our vacation house and we have an antenna that pulls in a bunch of digital channels including one associated with the PBS stations called "Create". The PBS digitals usually come in groups of 3 and it is usually the third {ie, 12-3, 32-3, etc.}.

It is nothing but cooking, house fix up, etc. shows! It's really a good channel. Makes me thinik I can dump the expensive cable at home.
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We have that one here too from the PBS station in Austin (channel 18-2). It's a nice mix of Food TV, HGTV, DIY and Travel Channel type programming all in one.

Create TV: Public Television's top shows in Cooking, Arts & Crafts, Gardening, Home Improvement and Travel

Digital subchannels are making it possible to offer more varied programming on free TV as well. Our local CBS affiliate just started carrying the Retro Television Network on 42-2 as well:

Welcome to RTN the Retro Television Network

With digital programming, clear pictures and the ability to offer subchannels giving more free programming, I think over-the-air TV is poised to make a bit of a comeback after the dust settles next February.

Anyway, enough of the hijack. We now return you to your regularly scheduled doom and gloom. :)
 
huskerblue said:
Actually, we only have broadcast TV in our vacation house and we have an antenna that pulls in a bunch of digital channels including one associated with the PBS stations called "Create". The PBS digitals usually come in groups of 3 and it is usually the third {ie, 12-3, 32-3, etc.}.

It is nothing but cooking, house fix up, etc. shows! It's really a good channel. Makes me think I can dump the expensive cable at home.
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Hmmmm... Time to investigate!
 
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