I think that from here, I would take equities over gold for the next ten years.
In fact, I think I would take cash over gold for the next ten years, assuming that my cash is allowed to earn whatever prevaling short term rates are over those ten years (currently only about 1%, but probably higher down the road if inflation picks up).
Currently, 1 oz of gold is right around $1200. That buys about 11 shares of SPY. It buys about 1000 double cheeseburgers at the Plymouth MN McDonald's. It buys just over 17 barrels of oil.
I think an oz of gold is likely to buy less of all of them in ten years.
Gold's nominal value has quadrupled over the past ten years. While there has been some inflation, things are nowhere near four times as expensive as they were ten years ago. That massive increase in gold's buying power is likely to unwind as people get less fearful.
Gold is a store of value, not an investment. I would expect that over the long haul, gold will maintain its purchasing power on average. If you buy gold when its purchasing power is lower than normal (2000), you will do pretty well. If you buy it when its purchasing power is higher than normal (1980, now), I would expect you to do badly over the long haul.
Time will tell.
I have expressed many opinions since joining this forum... just do a search on "ultimo."
Where will gold be in one year? Only a fool predicts. I bought gold in 2001. I've had years where it went up, and years where it went down. One year doesn't matter... five or 10 or 15 do matter. Across that time span I would say that gold (and silver) will outperform equities.
That's all that matters to me. That's why I question the FIRE model.