Gone4Good
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2005
- Messages
- 5,381
Even if past is prologue, which it isn't, go back and calculate returns starting 10 years after those historic peaks, which is where we are today.
Quick and dirty using Shiller's data says total returns (including dividends) were about 9% from the period from 1939-1949 and about the same (9%)
from 1976-1982.
Oh, and if the idea is that it is going to take another 6 or 7 years to get back to the 2000 peak (making for a 16-17 year "secular bear" using the definition in the referenced link) than that would mean 7% average annual total returns for the SPX over that time frame (from 1100 to 1500 plus dividends). Not huge returns by historic perspectives, but a whole lot better than cash.
I guess I'm not seeing a reason to run for the hills in this data set.