Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

Fed Chairman Powell comments today, from WSJ and Barrons
Last year, rebounding supply supported U.S. growth in spending and also employment, alongside a considerable decline in inflation,” Powell said at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday afternoon. “The more recent data show solid growth and continued strength in the labor market, but also a lack of further progress so far this year on returning to our 2% inflation goal.”
./.
The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence” that inflation is making progress to the Fed’s goal “and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,”
Click to expand...
 
The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence” that inflation is making progress to the Fed’s goal “and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,”
Click to expand...

My Gloat-O-Meter has once again been pegged on the far right. :D

I'm glad the Fed Chairmen is coming around to what I have been saying for at least a year.
 
So the first print on GDP for the first quarter came out low this morning.

But the PCE for the first quarter came out hotter, 3.7% instead of the expected 3.4%.

Mixed signals for the Fed if economy is finally slowing down? Jobs report for April should be next week.
 
Th Employment Cost Index was released this morning (here). It is the Fed’s preferred index for looking at wage growth.

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period
ending in March 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 1.1
percent and benefit costs increased 1.1 percent from December 2023. (See tables A, 1, 2, and 3.)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024
and increased 4.8 percent in March 2023. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period
ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit costs
increased 3.7 percent over the year and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023.
(See tables A, 4, 8, and 12.)
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The number is higher than expected and points to an ongoing inflation rate between 3.0%-3.5%.
 
I guess Powell saying he doesn't see a reason to tighten soothed the market today.

I think also this week EU had a good number on inflation.
 
We've noticed an uptick in prices just very recently, like in the past month or so. Before that, outside of gasoline, we hadn't seen it.

My brother and I go to breakfast at the same place twice a week. We almost always get the same thing and it typically runs about $33 to $36. Over the past month the same order is now running $41 to $44. A few of our favorite restaurants also suddenly seem to be up in price by ~$10 to $15 for dinner.

DW'S nail salon just announced that they are now closing Sundays. "A lot of people seem to be not coming as often", according to the owner. So, not having your nails done regularly is something that could be a leading indicator of a slowing economy...certainly an expensive luxury.
 
Last edited:
marko said:
We've noticed an uptick in prices just very recently, like in the past month or so. Before that, outside of gasoline, we hadn't seen it.
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Wow. Maybe you just weren't looking at all the last few years. There's another thread where people post their examples of inflation:

Examples of current inflation - add yours!

Yikes! I do all the shopping as DW is handicapped and can't get around without a lot of equipment and time. Today I made the mini pharmacy and grocery run and it seems like every time I go shopping, the prices are going up. I'm talking about basic stuff and not Kobi steaks or other...
www.early-retirement.org www.early-retirement.org
 
I went to Wichita Kansas for 4 days where the COL is much cheaper. We went to an Italian chain restaurant for dinner and there were 5 of us. Nobody drinks so no alcohol and the bill was still 160 with the tip. I was surprised since most things are much cheaper there.
 
Teacher Terry said:
I went to Wichita Kansas for 4 days where the COL is much cheaper. We went to an Italian chain restaurant for dinner and there were 5 of us. Nobody drinks so no alcohol and the bill was still 160 with the tip. I was surprised since most things are much cheaper there.
Click to expand...
Cutting the alcohol definitely can make a big difference, but I even cut the soda anymore, which can be $3 or more each, before tax/tip.
 
Last edited:
GenXguy said:
Wow. Maybe you just weren't looking at all the last few years. There's another thread where people post their examples of inflation:

Examples of current inflation - add yours!

Yikes! I do all the shopping as DW is handicapped and can't get around without a lot of equipment and time. Today I made the mini pharmacy and grocery run and it seems like every time I go shopping, the prices are going up. I'm talking about basic stuff and not Kobi steaks or other...
www.early-retirement.org www.early-retirement.org
Click to expand...
Oops. That's where I thought I was posting. :facepalm:
Gotta stop morning drinking.
 
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