9 things that will disappear in our lifetime

[hakuna matata]

6. MUSIC - This is one of the saddest parts of the change story. The music industry is dying a slow death. Not just because of illegal downloading. It's the lack of innovative new music being given a chance to get to the people who would like to hear it. Greed and corruption is the problem. The record labels and the radio conglomerates are simply self-destructing.

Over 40% of the music purchased today is "catalogue items," meaning traditional music that the public is familiar with. Older established artists. This is also true on the live concert circuit. To explore this fascinating and disturbing topic further, check out the book, "Appetite for Self-Destruction" by Steve Knopper, and the video documentary, "Before the Music Dies."

Interesting--I will reserve judgement until I read that book, but my gut instinct is that MORE music and more innovative music is out there now because of the internet. It seems that You-tube allows more musicians to upload their own music, bypassing the labels. I know I have discovered many new artists through You-tube. It would be interesting to see what Mr. Knopper has to say about that.

As for the rest--I believe it. Just #6 I am not so sure about.

 

[Original Wally]

**_________________
"Mongo only pawn ... in game of life." Mongo from Blazing Saddles **


Hakuna - I see you are a fan... We have a group of Olde Fartusses (and Fartettes) who will do a screening of Blazing for New Year's Eve.

 

[BigMoneyJim]

I expect "top 10" lists to go extinct in favor of "top 9" or even "top 8" lists as our attention spans

(Sorry, was interrupted by a text.)

Music death? I don't think so. The industry may completely change, but there are plenty of ways already to experience new music. Psy's "Gangnam Style" is a widely-known example of a localized South Korean alternative music scene creating a song that went viral worldwide via YouTube (now over 1 billion views). Justin Bieber was discovered via YouTube videos. But those are just the high-visibility examples. MySpace had an indie music component for a while. Maybe still does...heck I don' t even know if that site exists anymore. A lot of music-related sites like Pandora or Amazon MP3 will play or suggest lesser-known music similar to your perceived tastes. The music industry will change a lot, but even if everyone decides to stop paying for music there are people out there who will keep making it.

On the other hand, while that's happening the commercial music industry may just devolve into reselling old recordings and recording covers of old songs. There may be enough music out there that each generation of music consumers can hear old remade songs and think they're new until their parents tell them otherwise and lament how the one they heard as a youth was better. Rinse and repeat.

By the way, I think #9 was "buggy whips".

Edit: I'm moving the link for Psy's "Gangnam Style" down here because the board insists on inserting the video which kind of interrupted my paragraph above:

 

[MissMolly]

Here is # 9:

9. Privacy. If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. That’s gone. It’s been gone for a long time anyway. There are cameras on the street, in most of the buildings, and even built into your computer and cell phone. But you can be sure that 24/7, “They” know who you are and where you are, right down to the GPS coordinates, and the Google Street View. If you buy something, your habit is put into a zillion profiles, and your ads will change to reflect those habits. And “They” will try to get you to buy something else. Again and again.

 

[Koolau]

I disagree about the Post Office. Maybe it SHOULD be gone, but then so should Amtrack. Actually, the PO does a reasonably good job for the most part. Their business model is their only problem. Privatized, they could probably hold their own (assuming the baggage from the gummint days was not attached to the deal).

Go into a USPS office and you will often (usually, locally) see a veritable hive of activity (especially around the holidays). So, "gone" - not likely. Not while "US" is still in "USPS", anyway. Of course, you're free to disagree as YMMV.

 

[HFWR]

Polar bears, lions, tigers, cheetahs, mountain gorillas, blue whales...

 

[Nords]

I'll be happy to give all of that up as long as I get my personal jetpack and my Jetsons flying hovercar.

Yeah, yeah, I know, "any day now". I've been hearing that for most of my life.

 

[bUU]

Here is # 9:

9. Privacy.If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. That’s gone. It’s been gone for a long time anyway.

Privacy is one of the interstitial characterizations along the spectrum from isolation to the literal meaning of publicity. As such, I don't think it is something necessarily "disappears" but rather I believe our society travels back and forth along certain paths, and this is one of them. The balance point shifts as society's needs shift. Both extremes are almost surely bad, but there isn't a fixed "midpoint" that is ideal for all time.

I don't see the current movement away from isolation and toward publicity to necessarily be a bad thing. There are myriad incidents and trends in society that concern me, which I believe are artifacts of people trying and succeeding in remaining more insular from each other. Some of the negative aspects of privacy have, I believe, fed an unhealthy loss of social conscience, an unhealthy emphasis on the self, a desensitization with regard to the challenges others face. The loss of privacy you allude to may help reverse some of that, if we can get past the friction that is a natural reflection of moving toward more interaction and integration within community. That's not to say that every aspect of the change will be positive, but I believe the positive effects are of fundamental importance.

 

[bUU]

I disagree about the Post Office. Maybe it SHOULD be gone, but then so should Amtrack. Actually, the PO does a reasonably good job for the most part. Their business model is their only problem. Privatized, they could probably hold their own (assuming the baggage from the gummint days was not attached to the deal).

The problem with that idea is that there really is no business case to be made for residential postal delivery. Without the "baggage" of the requirement to deliver mail to residences, any self-respecting business manager would put a five year plan in place to end that service, the day that they take over the Post Office as a private concern. I'm not saying whether or not residential postal delivery is worthy enough of a service to warrant government subsidization, but just explaining why privatization is a non-starter - no rational set of investors is going to accept such an obligation placed on their purchase.

So a conversion of the Post Office probably will have to come along with some government "baggage" at least - if not the requirement to subsidize residential postal delivery (which would nullify all the positive aspects of privatization that you were implicitly touting), then there would be a need to have government force everyone trying to engage in commerce in the United States to shift to the new model, i.e., requiring entities putting out legal notices to either switch to the exceedingly expensive parcel service delivery services (effectively multiplying their disclosure costs by a factor of 30x) or putting in place, certifying, auditing for compliance and then requiring use of a more reliable email delivery mechanism, ensuring also to provide sufficient assurance that all Americans have ready access to it.

Sounds like more trouble than it is worth to me.

Amtrak is another story. The problem is that we actually do need Amtrak - actually we need a much more comprehensive network of high-speed inter-city mass-transit. We need it for the long-term economic health of our nation. I don't know how, without government being involved, to ensure we remain competitive in that arena, but I think it has something to do with how much the government currently interferes in the best interest of Amtrak's "competitors", i.e., giving airlines and automobile travel a soft touch. Strip away government subsidization of all aspects of airline and automobile travel, and maybe people will be driven back to using the rails. I'm not sure.

 

[marko]

If you went back to the year 1750 and told someone that "..in 2013 almost nobody would own a horse...", they'd assume that the standard of living had gone down.

Things come and go...they get replaced by other things.

 

[Badger]

Courtesy.

Cheers!

 

[veremchuka]

The need for newspapers sounds like the need for the plastic grocery bags (as any dog owner can relate )

Oh don't get me going on plastic grocery bags! VERY useful for all types of things especially for picking and keeping things separate in the garden and the fridge and I reuse them as much as possible. When I see attempts to ban them I want to brain the person. Also the post office, I have a PO box if the PO goes away how do I get my mail? I assume it'll be privatized but I don't want it delivered to my house so a box would need to be an option. I realize change is inevitable and often is for the better but it's easy to like the status quo.

Bulk newsprint (no ink!) is available from Amazon.com for $14 per 100 sheets.

That's a surprise. I get 6 months of newspapers for $115 and doing 5 seconds of math it seems to be far less than buying blank newsprint.

You're going to have drag me kicking and screaming into the future I tell ya!

 

[seraphim]

I disagree with 6 and 7. The music industry won't die, but it will be forced to evolve into something different. Hopefully, artists will have more control and profit from their works, rather than handing those over to the industry.

The role of TV is changing, but I don't see it disappearing entirely. It, too, will need to evolve.

 

[tfudtuckerpucker]

futures discussion

This is a fun discussion, and as a techie who has used email and the internet (previously ARPANET) for 30+ years, I enjoy trying to look into the future. I have long ago made the transition for all 9 things (except I still mail packages at the post office, but that could be replaced by fedex). Here's where I see some things heading:
1- video glasses. We'll be able to watch anything, anytime, anywhere. It's potentially much cheaper and consumes much less power than regular displays. It's already underway (tinyurl.com/a5lhm6c)
2- we'll use the same glasses to record everything our eyes see, all the time, and because memory costs and density will continue to improve, we'll carry it with us (or it will all go to the cloud.) (tinyurl.com/awtxtt2)
3- we'll no longer drive our cars most of the time- Google is demonstrating it. This will help as we are older, or drink too much. Or you can text or watch movies while you commute. It might even prove to be safer overall (tinyurl.com/dyasxc3).
4- Large portions of college courses will move to internet-based. This will be driven by skyrocketing college costs. It's not there yet, but there's enough potential gain to drive this.
Of course, I may be wrong, but these are some of my guesses.

 

[explanade]

Newspaper the distribution format can go. But it will be sad if an independent press can't be sustained. Newspapers are hurting because they also lost all the classified ads revenues to monster.com, craigslist and eBay.

Postal service is also being scorned because Fed Ex is so slick. But a lot of people can't afford to pay $10 to send a simple letter.

 

[Midpack]

Here is # 9:

9. Privacy. If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. That’s gone. It’s been gone for a long time anyway. There are cameras on the street, in most of the buildings, and even built into your computer and cell phone. But you can be sure that 24/7, “They” know who you are and where you are, right down to the GPS coordinates, and the Google Street View. If you buy something, your habit is put into a zillion profiles, and your ads will change to reflect those habits. And “They” will try to get you to buy something else. Again and again.

That's a good add, something I know we all have mixed feelings about. It's a real double edged sword. Used for the right purposes, our private information can be used to customize our worlds in many ways, and remove a lot of unnecessary clutter. I welcome that, though we are very wary (haven't signed up for FB solely due to privacy). Unfortunately, used for the wrong purposes, our information can do serious damage or become at least a real nuisance. But we're going to have to give up some privacy and a price for it eventually. Unfortunately the bad guy (hackers) are just as talented as the legitimate folks, and I don't see that changing...

 

[easysurfer]

Here is # 9:

9. Privacy. If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. That’s gone. It’s been gone for a long time anyway. There are cameras on the street, in most of the buildings, and even built into your computer and cell phone. But you can be sure that 24/7, “They” know who you are and where you are, right down to the GPS coordinates, and the Google Street View. If you buy something, your habit is put into a zillion profiles, and your ads will change to reflect those habits. And “They” will try to get you to buy something else. Again and again.

Good one.

Regardless of where one stands on the gun debate, I watched on TV recently where a NY Newspaper published the names and addresses of gun owners.

My first reaction was, "Hey, isn't there some kind of law against that?" But I guess not.

 

[RunningBum]

Postal service is also being scorned because Fed Ex is so slick. But a lot of people can't afford to pay $10 to send a simple letter.

There are obvious options around this, most notably an email. Other than 3 or 4 Christmas cards, I can't think of the last personal letter I've gotten in the mail. You might like the personal touch of a handwritten letter, but I'm not going to subsidize the USPS for that. Pay $10 or do without.

I do still get some bills and statements (especially tax statements) in the mail, but I could adjust to getting them all online and printing what I want a hardcopy of. My main use for mail is that some online shippers still use it, and with all of the online shopping I'm a bit surprised the USPS hasn't been able to do better financially.

I'd be fine with getting rid of my landline, except that my cell signal is really weak at home. I guess I'd do it over the internet if landline prices went up too much more.

 

[veremchuka]

This is a fun discussion, and as a techie who has used email and the internet (previously ARPANET) for 30+ years, I enjoy trying to look into the future. I have long ago made the transition for all 9 things (except I still mail packages at the post office, but that could be replaced by fedex). Here's where I see some things heading:
1- video glasses. We'll be able to watch anything, anytime, anywhere. It's potentially much cheaper and consumes much less power than regular displays. It's already underway (tinyurl.com/a5lhm6c)
2- we'll use the same glasses to record everything our eyes see, all the time, and because memory costs and density will continue to improve, we'll carry it with us (or it will all go to the cloud.) (tinyurl.com/awtxtt2)
3- we'll no longer drive our cars most of the time- Google is demonstrating it. This will help as we are older, or drink too much. Or you can text or watch movies while you commute. It might even prove to be safer overall (tinyurl.com/dyasxc3).
4- Large portions of college courses will move to internet-based. This will be driven by skyrocketing college costs. It's not there yet, but there's enough potential gain to drive this.
Of course, I may be wrong, but these are some of my guesses.

I'm not saying you are wrong but I'll like to tell you (because you may be too young to remember or have heard this) that in the 50's atomic power (as it was called) was going to make electricity "too cheap to meter". Yep that's what "they" were saying.

As has been attributed to Yogi Berra "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future".

 

[Lazarus]

I think libraries will become less common.

 

[growing_older]

Plenty of things have already disappeared in our lifetimes: Slide rule already disappeared, despite many years in Chemistry and Physics class spent mastering our skills. Rotary telephone is all but gone - I remember the marketing campaigns for the fancy "Princess" phones with the push buttons that were more expensive but so much more modern. Party lines had mostly faded already. Many generations of computer technology (punch cards anyone?, paper tape?). Tape recorders are almost gone in all but niche applications. Home reel-to-reel is history and home cassette is fading fast. Eight track and betamax are gone in our lifetime. VHS is on the way out. Incandescence lights were a stable technology for a hundred years, but they will be rare in a decade.

Things I'd like to disappear, but I'm not optimistic: smoking. Who ever thought that was a good idea?

 

[bUU]

Newspaper the distribution format can go. But it will be sad if an independent press can't be sustained.

The counter-argument to that is that an independent press cannot help but be sustained by the path forward into the future, because in the future everyone will be able to get their story out. Doesn't sound so good? Well that's why you have to be careful what you ask for: Back in the day, newspapers were controlled by the men (they were all men back then) who owned them. They were "independent" in that anyone with money could try to start a newspaper. We've gotten used to a broader perspective as journalism gained a stronger and better footing, with the news often (though not always) able to trump the publisher's preferences. But that improvement put us on the trajectory toward journalistic anarchy. I bet that there are literally thousands of "news reports" posted to YouTube each week. Good luck with the ultimate "independent press".

Postal service is also being scorned because Fed Ex is so slick. But a lot of people can't afford to pay $10 to send a simple letter.

I'm not sure that the USPS is being "scorned" because of FedEx. When we talk about what the USPS does, we're talking about something that FedEx never has done and never will do, and people are not using FedEx instead of first class mail. The USPS is being "scorned" because of email, online billing, online bill payment, magazines on e-book readers, etc.

 

[GrayHare]

USPS can survive if their business model and pricing are allowed to change with demand. As a start, allow the USPS to charge a postage rate adequate to support their service level. If that rate (i.e. the cost of delivering daily to every address) is higher than demand supports, then reduce service. If the USPS service level is allowed to balance with demand, it can probably remain viable for a long time.

 

[GalaxyBoy]

Star Trek had a hard time keeping up with 50 years in the future, much less 200.

Star Trek and books - YouTube

 

[kumquat]

9 THINGS THAT WILL DISAPPEAR IN OUR LIFETIME:



8. THE "THINGS" THAT YOU OWN - Many of the very possessions that we used to own are still in our lives, but we may not actually own them in the future. They may simply reside in "the cloud." Today your computer has a hard drive and you store your pictures, music, movies, and documents. Your software is on a CD or DVD, and you can always re-install it if need be.

But all of that is changing.. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all finishing up their latest "CLOUD SERVICES." That means that when you turn on a computer, the Internet will be built into the operating system. So, Windows, Google, and the Mac OS will be tied straight into the Internet. If you click an icon, it will open something in the Internet CLOUD.

If you save something, it will be saved to the CLOUD. And you may pay a monthly subscription fee to the cloud provider. In this virtual world, you can access your music or your books, or your whatever from any laptop or handheld device. That's the good news.

But, will you actually own any of this "stuff" or will it all be able to disappear at any moment in a big "Poof?" Will most of the things in our lives be disposable and whimsical? It makes you want to run to the closet and pull out that photo album, grab a book from the shelf, or open up a CD case and pull out the insert.

I'd contest this one. I'm not sure about most individuals, but some will feel their privacy is their own problem and stick to local storage.

Where the 'cloud' is will matter. Recent changes to US law (ie Patriot Act) will ensure that, for instance, Canadian financial corporations will neither store data in the US nor allow it to pass through US wires. There is a project started that will lay a huge (data capacity) cable from Canada to Iceland to Irish Republic. Why? No Us territory means no US government oversight or interception of data.

No chance on the cloud thing.