Have a question for the group with regards to asset allocations...
Background: Me and SO are pretty risk adverse. Ive been micromanaging our 401ks pretty closely since late 2019. Went from about 80/20 AA back then, and by Feb 2020 was all cash (got lucky with covid but read the tea leaves with what I was seeing in italy/china early on). Back in to 50/50 AA from S&P 2600 until about 4600, then back out to all cash, missed the run to 4800, but also missed the drops down to 3600. Got back in at about 33/66 AA around 4000 and most recently pulled everything back out last week. Now at all cash (all cash in 401k is stable fund, fixed assets like 2% YTD performance. )
During this timeframe, my company also has changed 401k providers, so most of my online statements are gone, so its hard to gauge what my true % gain has been since 2019 with all the jockeying in and out. I'm probably up slightly versus had I just stayed 80/20 AA back in 2019 and just never touched it. However, its tiring and stressful. I kept making moves out of fear (Covid then Ukraine then Inflation then Recession woes), it feels like our world is so wrapped up in fear, alarmism, and safetyism, and ive struggled with pulling the trigger.
How would you guys go about getting back into this market in 401ks such that we end up back close to 80/20 AA. Would easing in over time, say making 10% moves over a period of 6-8 months make more sense then just making a single change and walking away? Should I even be targeting 80/20 considering how risk adverse I am?
Our time horizon is FIRE in the next 7-10 years, but I do have some significant fears about a market pullback in the next 6-12 months.
Thoughts?
Background: Me and SO are pretty risk adverse. Ive been micromanaging our 401ks pretty closely since late 2019. Went from about 80/20 AA back then, and by Feb 2020 was all cash (got lucky with covid but read the tea leaves with what I was seeing in italy/china early on). Back in to 50/50 AA from S&P 2600 until about 4600, then back out to all cash, missed the run to 4800, but also missed the drops down to 3600. Got back in at about 33/66 AA around 4000 and most recently pulled everything back out last week. Now at all cash (all cash in 401k is stable fund, fixed assets like 2% YTD performance. )
During this timeframe, my company also has changed 401k providers, so most of my online statements are gone, so its hard to gauge what my true % gain has been since 2019 with all the jockeying in and out. I'm probably up slightly versus had I just stayed 80/20 AA back in 2019 and just never touched it. However, its tiring and stressful. I kept making moves out of fear (Covid then Ukraine then Inflation then Recession woes), it feels like our world is so wrapped up in fear, alarmism, and safetyism, and ive struggled with pulling the trigger.
How would you guys go about getting back into this market in 401ks such that we end up back close to 80/20 AA. Would easing in over time, say making 10% moves over a period of 6-8 months make more sense then just making a single change and walking away? Should I even be targeting 80/20 considering how risk adverse I am?
Our time horizon is FIRE in the next 7-10 years, but I do have some significant fears about a market pullback in the next 6-12 months.
Thoughts?
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