Anyone making any changes with upcoming election?

[CountryGal]

I am curious if there are any strategies that you are taking with your portfolio with regard to the election in November.

Do you change anything with your asset allocation? Amount of cash on hand?

TX

 

[MichaelB]

<mod hat on > A legitimate forum topic, but let's please let's avoid partisan or political comments. <mod hat off>

 

[retire2020]

No Change! I'll stick to my AA of 65/35.

 

[Lazyfabs]

Definitely expect my cash on hand to decrease, but only due to the fact that my wine and bourbon consumption will systematically increase like good old fashion compounding interest...

 

[Sunset]

No, never have as impossible to know what will happen.

 

[jazz4cash]

I thought about making a change. Then I considered buying media stocks. Haven't done either.


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[Totoro]

Taking into account there might be some turbulence in the weeks around the date (mid october - mod november), and possibly until february or so.

Which means 1) I won't sell puts on the index in that period unless it tanks >10%, 2) try to get some spare cash on hand for some individual stocks to buy. and 3) am consider selling some stocks I was planning on selling a little bit before they hit my target price.

 

[Meadbh]

I have invested in popcorn.

 

[Nemo2]

I have invested in popcorn.

 

[Another Reader]

Markets hate uncertainty. I haven't decided what, if anything, to sell, but I do have some dry powder available. I am considering selling a rental and paying off three more mortgages. Less risk in turbulent times is better.

 

[COcheesehead]

I have an allocation plan and I am sticking to it, rebalancing as needed. It has worked in the past. It will work in the future.

 

[Nemo2]

It has worked in the past. It will work in the future.

For some of us, however, "the future" is closer than for others.

 

[braumeister]

My yard sign business is booming right now, so that was a good investment. After the election I guess I'll have to find another way to profit from politics.

 

[CountryGal]

For us the future is "now" - in a way. I have been wondering if I should shift (just a little) away from stocks to possibly buy back if there is a downturn. Thoughts?

 

[VFK57]

Many economists point out to recession in 2017, but a lot depend on Feds monetary policy. Option 1 is tightening with interest rate going up - it is going to cause stock market decline and sure recession. Option 2 is easy money: keeping zero interest, sliding to negative rates, monetary supply farther increases - it may increase inflation but may keep equities same or higher, reduce recession chances. Could anyone state about their policy for sure? I keep same my AA.

 

[rodi]

I'll keep my 60/40 asset allocation and vote on election day. That's my reaction to the politics.

 

[LOL!]

I'm not changing a thing.

As for "dry powder", I don't need any cash since I can always sell bond fund shares and buy equity fund shares at any time. And there is no doubt that if the stock market drops by 3% or so in a single day that I will do just that and even announce it in the LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter, so that everybody can do the same thing if they want to.

 

[pb4uski]

I am curious if there are any strategies that you are taking with your portfolio with regard to the election in November. ...

Nope. Nada. Sticking with my AA.

 

[pb4uski]

My yard sign business is booming right now, so that was a good investment. After the election I guess I'll have to find another way to profit from politics.

I'll bet if "None of the above" was on the ballot that they would win by a landslide.

 

[W2R]

Nope. Nada. Sticking with my AA.

+1

Honestly, I never change anything for any reason except to rebalance when necessary. I already know my AA.

Elections?
Giant meteor splitting the earth in half?
Invasion by King Kong, Rodan, and a multitude of other horrific monsters?
Yet another World War?
Epidemic killing off 80% of the world's population?

None of those would have the slightest impact on my investment plan, which I stick to like glue.

 

[Badger]

No changes planned. However, I do have cash for investments if things go south. I understand adult beverage consumption tends to increase when times are tough. Maybe I will keep an eye on that market.

Cheers!

 

[cbo111]

No changes planned. However, I do have cash for investments if things go south. I understand adult beverage consumption tends to increase when times are tough. Maybe I will keep an eye on that market.

Cheers!

+1
I just moved a large chunk of cash from a condo sale to a money market acct in my Vanguard portfolio, despite my advisor's recommendation that I would be missing out on any gains and dividends. I think it is prudent to anticipate some volatility in the next few months. And if it doesn't happen, I will accept the small loss and put the cash to work with my normal AA.

 

[GravitySucks]

Nope.

 

[Whisper66]

For us the future is "now" - in a way. I have been wondering if I should shift (just a little) away from stocks to possibly buy back if there is a downturn. Thoughts?

Shifting makes sense if you are uncomfortable where you are now. Everyone has their own comfort zone.

Our asset allocation plans actually state we are ok with a fairly wide range of equity/fixed asset ratio and we adjust our ratio to a higher or lower exposure to equities based on comfort level with current events. We have had a high equity exposure for many years (~85%+) up to early retirement. Earlier this year, we dropped that to ~ 80% to be more comfortable in what we see as a relatively highly priced market. The possible response of the markets to the elections as well as Fed actions / non actions are making us consider dropping our equity exposure even more. Not sure if we will or not but certainly giving it very serious consideration.

Bottom line is there is no right answer....just need to pick a plan you can be comfortable with and doesn't put your risk level higher than you are ok with. The higher the equity exposure, the higher the potential losses in a downturn. For example of possible losses (based on history):

From Boggleheads... https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation#Impact_of_asset_allocation_on_risk_and_return

From Merriman
Fine Tuning Your Asset Allocation Tables 2016 - Paul Merriman | Paul Merriman

 

[T-Minus]

Yep. I believe business thrives on predictability. Once the election is decided, business will have to adapt to whichever direction the country selects and the vortex of change will reduce somewhat. Yesterday, I sold about 2% of our assets and will hold those proceeds, along with all ongoing amounts in cash. Once the election has passed, I can get back in, only sacrificing a few hundred dollars' missed dividends. Additionally, due to market growth, I will use this as a rebalancing opportunity.