Anyone really worried? I am...

[Spanky]

......... there is a bit of group think on this board.

or another board -- If one is interested in debates, a board or forum focusing on political topics may be a better fit.

 

[Texas Proud]

Cyclone...

You say yourself that you don't know finance... but want to challenge a number of the people on this board without knowing anythng about them...

I have an MBA in FINANCE (international finance I might add)... and I will tell you that I would put Brewer and Saluki (sp...sorry) opinions higher than mine when it comes to advice and investing...

You came with a gloom and doom post... and most people said they don't care.. you said you do. I gave my opinion that you don't invest for the gloom and doom OR the everything is rosy possibilities.... You invest for the most likely outcome AND one that will protect on downturns and make you money on upturns... you dont' change because the winds change..

But you keep trying to stay on the gloom and doom... sorry... I just don't care to 'debate' something that makes no difference to me. Even if you are 100% correct (which I doubt... but just for 'debate')... will I change my investments NO... debate over..

 

[Mwsinron]

Obviously we all know we will have another bear market. When someone can pin point it without a shadow of a doubt let me know.

 

[brewer12345]

But you keep trying to stay on the gloom and doom... sorry... I just don't care to 'debate' something that makes no difference to me. Even if you are 100% correct (which I doubt... but just for 'debate')... will I change my investments NO... debate over..

Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner. Except that I can't even be bothered at an attempt at a debate over this stuff any more, hence the immediate resort to piglet sodomizer references.

 

[Nords]

Except that I can't even be bothered at an attempt at a debate over this stuff any more...

Whenever we feel this way about a post we should probably hit the "Mark as read" button and move on.

 

[Gone4Good]

Cyclone6,
I think Nord's summed up a lot of sentiment with this statement:

While you've raised lots of concerns that could keep a lot of people awake at night, what do you propose to do about it? Are you going to go to 100% Treasuries or cash? Are you going to short the market?

None of those strategies is without risk.

A more interesting question, though, is when would you actually feel comfortable buying equities? Were you putting money into the market in 2003 after it corrected by ~45%? I was. I did so because I looked around at the world and US economy and concluded it wasn't that bad. I look around at the world and US economy today and see that it is pretty darned good. In order to buy equities, you have to be optimistic about the future.

But for someone who apparently only sees the dark cloud behind every silver lining would you really put money into equities at a time when economic conditions warranted P/E multiples in the single digits?? My guess is you'd get even more conservative, be even more concerned that the end is near, pull back on what little risk you do have, and miss the opportunity you may have waited 50 years for.

 

[cyclone6]

A more interesting question, though, is when would you actually feel comfortable buying equities? Were you putting money into the market in 2003 after it corrected by ~45%?

Actually, I did alright. I put a good chunk of money into the market in the runup to the Iraq war - figuring that everyone was overreacting. I also made a large move 3 weeks before the election in '04 - figuring that Bush was going to win, and that it would be considered a positive event by the market. Lastly, I did well with a large investment in the Fidelity International Discovery fund and EWJ that I bought a few years ago when the international indices were down (especially Japan) and the whole question of the US dollar started to surface.

I have since sold those investments, and with the money I recently was fortunate enough to inherit, am sitting 90% in cash. Most of the sales came very late '06, and a few early '07. I have an investment strategy that I plan to implement, and will probably move into the bond portions very soon. As for the equity, I figure I can afford to sit on the sidelines for awhile and see how the housing/consumer spending issues play out. I'm quite happy making a nice safe 5+ % in MMFs for the time being, with an eye to getting into the equity positions later this year when some time has passed and the effects of the above mentioned are better understood.

I am a believer in buy and hold, and once I get the allocation set up I plan to leave it alone and just rebalance when certain components get too far out of balance - or maybe once a year for tax-loss harvesting. I just don't feel comfortable buying equities when the indicies are all so high...

 

[d]

I put a good chunk of money into the market ... figuring that ... made a large move 3 weeks before...figuring that ... a large investment in ... when the ... . I am a believer in buy and hold

try beav3er chees3 ... it's always the right time to buy it

 

[lswswein]

I am a believer in buy and hold, and once I get the allocation set up I plan to leave it alone and just rebalance when certain components get too far out of balance

I just don't feel comfortable buying equities when the indicies are all so high...

How can you say you are a buy and hold investor and then give us examples of your great market timing skills? The main issue here is that you seem to want to market time and looking for reasons to do so. If there is something that has been proved not to work on an consistent basis it is market timing. People get lucky once or twice getting in and out of equities and then decide that they have the skill.

-h
p.s: Btw there has been a lot of discussion on bear mkts. Check out the chicken little discussion.

 

[Milton]

I get the sarcasm but Everything will be ok in the long run. The question my friend is how long do you have? If you have 25+ yrs none of it matters. I bet 2007 will not even register when you look back in 2030.

In the long run, we're all dead. So in a sense you are correct: there is no real point to worrying about anything.

That said, I don’t know how you can so confidently predict that “Everything will be ok”. Perhaps it will; perhaps it won’t. As Delawaredave said, “We don't know”.