ladelfina
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Oct 18, 2005
- Messages
- 2,713
Rockon.. It's just based on current terms.. and some numbers in my head from various sources among which:
The Big Picture | Joseph Stiglitz On The Economy
I agree with his assessment more than his solutions.
When you think about it... it just HAS to.
Median US household income is about $48k
Median house price is about $230k
That's about 4.8x income, when the historical norm for home affordability has been 2-3x income. You could adjust for larger homes but of course in many areas the factor is much higher even relative to local median wages. Conversely, there may be pockets of relative affordability. I think EVERYwhere may go down; are you not aware that new mortgages want 20% down once again? Stricter lending practices will reduce prices, absolutely. (All the crazy legislators are instead trying to prop home prices up!).
Here it claims the median US house price has appreciated 6%/year over the last 40 years. Not true for median wages, I think you'll agree.
The Real Returns: Median and Average House Prices in USA Since 2000
Anyway... there're a bunch of other links/graphs/etc. I could dredge up.. none of them particularly contrary in establishing more-or-less-get-to-"rational" home prices, all else being equal...
;-) you say "only"... yeah. with a real depression or some wierd hyperinflation, who knows? Ay!!! I have no idea what the nominal value could be.. $500?... $5,000,000?
I have no idea what to do.. since the real upshot of all this would be truly what's considered 'tin-foil hat" terrritory.. where you want gold, guns, ammo and a 10-yr. supply of MREs. A nominal home price figure would be kind of irrelevant. Either live in it or rent it; forget what it cost you, that's water under the bridge.
It is intense. I would never want to be Chicken Little ("the meltdown!" "the meltdown!")
But the more I read about certain facts and aspects, the less I could brush them off or ignore them.
I'm open to anyone who has a convincing opposing argument on any point, believe me!
I just couldn't see anything countermanding many elements of my previous post. I don't see where new US growth is now supposed to come from.
The Big Picture | Joseph Stiglitz On The Economy
I agree with his assessment more than his solutions.
When you think about it... it just HAS to.
Median US household income is about $48k
Median house price is about $230k
That's about 4.8x income, when the historical norm for home affordability has been 2-3x income. You could adjust for larger homes but of course in many areas the factor is much higher even relative to local median wages. Conversely, there may be pockets of relative affordability. I think EVERYwhere may go down; are you not aware that new mortgages want 20% down once again? Stricter lending practices will reduce prices, absolutely. (All the crazy legislators are instead trying to prop home prices up!).
Here it claims the median US house price has appreciated 6%/year over the last 40 years. Not true for median wages, I think you'll agree.
The Real Returns: Median and Average House Prices in USA Since 2000
Anyway... there're a bunch of other links/graphs/etc. I could dredge up.. none of them particularly contrary in establishing more-or-less-get-to-"rational" home prices, all else being equal...
;-) you say "only"... yeah. with a real depression or some wierd hyperinflation, who knows? Ay!!! I have no idea what the nominal value could be.. $500?... $5,000,000?
I have no idea what to do.. since the real upshot of all this would be truly what's considered 'tin-foil hat" terrritory.. where you want gold, guns, ammo and a 10-yr. supply of MREs. A nominal home price figure would be kind of irrelevant. Either live in it or rent it; forget what it cost you, that's water under the bridge.
It is intense. I would never want to be Chicken Little ("the meltdown!" "the meltdown!")
But the more I read about certain facts and aspects, the less I could brush them off or ignore them.
I'm open to anyone who has a convincing opposing argument on any point, believe me!
I just couldn't see anything countermanding many elements of my previous post. I don't see where new US growth is now supposed to come from.