Are you looking to buy leisure industry stocks and if so which ones?

[tenant13]

So CDC just announced that vaccinated people don't spread the virus. If we couple that with pent up demand for travel among the population with the most time and disposable income that also happened to be fully vaccinated (us, lol) - it seems like we might be looking at a lot of new revenue flowing into airlines, hotels, cruise lines and restaurants.

I'm looking at cruise lines and thinking that it's probably time to buy some...

 

[Souschef]

So CDC just announced that vaccinated people don't spread the virus. If we couple that with pent up demand for travel among the population with the most time and disposable income that also happened to be fully vaccinated (us, lol) - it seems like we might be looking at a lot of new revenue flowing into airlines, hotels, cruise lines and restaurants.

I'm looking at cruise lines and thinking that it's probably time to buy some...

The cruise lines still have some problems. AFAIK, Canada has closed it ports to cruise ships through 2021.
This means cruises to Alaska and New England are no longer possible. I am not sure about European countries.

 

[Sunset]

How do you evaluate the value of the cruise line:

• after they diluted their stock and
• doubled their debt,
• combined with the desire for people to cruise, but other countries not wanting cruise ships to dock
• Continued bleeding of money for many more months (CCL is $600M/month)
• No longer any dividend
• Sold off a bunch of ships so less overall income and profit (no ship was unprofitable)

Maybe they are already full priced



I have no idea what price they should be and will wait for someone to explain it to me

 

[tenant13]

The cruise lines still have some problems. AFAIK, Canada has closed it ports to cruise ships through 2021.
This means cruises to Alaska and New England are no longer possible. I am not sure about European countries.

Right, I'm aware - that's why they still sell at discount - I just can't imagine they won't bounce at some point. So the question is: am willing to wait a year for that bounce?

 

[Nemo2]

I have no idea what price they should be and will wait for someone to explain it to me

+1 "Pass the popcorn.....oh, wait, I hate popcorn, especially the smell of buttered popcorn."

 

[erkevin]

Maybe look at EXPE?

 

[Aerides]

I'd avoid airlines because business travel will be much slower to bounce back. Businesses have realized they can avoid the cost of travel for a lot of things and will like that opex reduction to stay for as long as they practically can.

And most of the travel industry has an international presence. The rest of the world is looking like it won't be safely reopening this year.

 

[braumeister]

I bought a few shares of a couple of airlines last year and they are up hugely now. Wish I had bought more.

Also you can't discount what creative approaches some companies will take.
I had an email yesterday from a cruise line that was selling land only trips in Alaska. If they can't sail you there, they can still offer packages there.

 

[Montecfo]

I think you are a bit late.

I think something like BKNG could make some sense. More focused on Europe which is well behind the US.

Defensive stocks are out of favor. Might be a good time to look at drugs, telecoms, selected utilities, consumer staples or similar if you are being contrarian.

It's all about singles and doubles now in my view. The fat pitches were last year.

 

[Fermion]

The pharma industry *should* be one to profit post COVID, as they have not participated in the big run-up of tech but it sure doesn't seem to work out so well for them.

It is fine and dandy for Boise Cascade to raise the price of OSB from $6 to $46 a sheet but pharma gets taken to the woodshed for just wanting to match inflation (baring some exceptions of course like the pharma bro guy)

 

[audreyh1]

So CDC just announced that vaccinated people don't spread the virus. If we couple that with pent up demand for travel among the population with the most time and disposable income that also happened to be fully vaccinated (us, lol) - it seems like we might be looking at a lot of new revenue flowing into airlines, hotels, cruise lines and restaurants.

I'm looking at cruise lines and thinking that it's probably time to buy some...

Wow, OK I didn’t get that from the study that was published. They used numbers like 80% and 90% protected from infection (not 100%) which indicates that a reduced number of people can still catch the virus. And where is the data that infected vaccinees do not spread it? Count me very confused.

And it only tracked 4000 people.

“Vaccinated people do not carry the virus — they don’t get sick,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow on Tuesday. That’s “not just in the clinical trials, but it’s also in real-world data.”

Walensky was referring to a new CDC study that suggests those fully inoculated with the vaccines produced by Moderna and Pfizer don’t transmit the virus. Researchers looked at how the shots protected nearly 4,000 health-care workers, first responders, and other essential workers toiling in eight U.S. locations against the virus and more-contagious variants. Following a single dose of either vaccine, the participants’ risk of infection was reduced by 80 percent, and that figure jumped to 90 percent after the second dose. Without infection, people are unable to spread the virus. The results are similar to what scientists saw in clinical trials for the vaccines, which found that two doses of either two-dose vaccine had an efficacy rate of around 95 percent.

That quote has been edited messing with the context. If you look at the transcript linked, the statement from the CDC director actually was

And we have -- we can kind of almost see the end. We`re vaccinating so very fast, our data from the CDC today suggests, you know, that vaccinated people do not carry the virus, don`t get sick, and that it`s not just in the clinical trials but it`s also in real world data.

There is the qualifier “the CDC data suggests”. But we know of some of fully vaccinated people who did get infected with the virus, so it’s pretty confusing.

 

[disneysteve]

I think the buying opportunity was in March 2020. I bought AAL which I sold a couple of weeks ago for a 75% profit. I also bought JETS and sold that a month ago for an 81% profit. Both are now back around their pre-COVID levels. I wouldn't buy in now. The cruise lines have also gone up tremendously since then.

 

[JoshTrent]

I think the buying opportunity was in March 2020. I bought AAL which I sold a couple of weeks ago for a 75% profit. I also bought JETS and sold that a month ago for an 81% profit. Both are now back around their pre-COVID levels. I wouldn't buy in now. The cruise lines have also gone up tremendously since then.

I agree.. I think that ship has sailed!

Most of what I purchased last year has already been sold. I decided to hold onto some very cheap airline shares (hopeful that the divi's come back) and some MGP (under par).

I'd avoid airlines because business travel will be much slower to bounce back. Businesses have realized they can avoid the cost of travel for a lot of things and will like that opex reduction to stay for as long as they practically can.

And most of the travel industry has an international presence. The rest of the world is looking like it won't be safely reopening this year.

I agree with you, it is the business which is dictating corporate travel at this point. The majority of travelers themselves, are anxious to get out and travel again, but corp policy dictates. I think we will see increased revs in Luxury Hotel Brands beginning Q3. ADR is at staggering heights, as those who are traveling now are paying for it. We just need more people traveling to bring occupancy up.

All that said.. how the market reacts is a whole different thing!

 

[DCdave]

So CDC just announced that vaccinated people don't spread the virus. If we couple that with pent up demand for travel among the population with the most time and disposable income that also happened to be fully vaccinated (us, lol) - it seems like we might be looking at a lot of new revenue flowing into airlines, hotels, cruise lines and restaurants.

I'm looking at cruise lines and thinking that it's probably time to buy some...

I have no idea where cruise ship stocks are going from here but the “buy when there is blood in the streets” mantra would have worked when travel stocks were slammed. Carnival (CCL), as an example, fell to 7.80 and is now nearly $27.00 a share. It may or may not have a lot of upside but there is no doubt that is has already more than tripled as people already anticipated the travel turnaround.

 

[bolt]

Many market participants speculate, some contrarily, others in kind.
Studying histories raises many theories.

I'd not speculate on humans as a species though.

Good Luck & Best wishes to all.