BA.2 variant - new study suggests severity concerns

[audreyh1]

It’s not a statement but rather a fact called evolution. Study any viral pandemic from history and you have your answer. Here is one of thousands of experts on the subject: https://news.northeastern.edu/2021/12/13/virus-evolution/

This virus readily spreads before people get symptoms, and some people are asymptomatic but contagious. There is no evolutionary pressure for Covid-19 to become less severe (killing the host occurs well after spread to others), and much evolutionary pressure to become more infectious. That’s how Covid has been playing out for a while now.

Expecting otherwise (and believing in herd immunity to a rapidly mutating highly transmissible coronavirus) seems like wishful thinking to me.

 

[Scuba]

I’m definitely in the camp of living as normally as possible. DH and I are vaxxed and boosted. We have been dining in restaurants and socializing with friends for over a year now, and have traveled domestically including the USVI. In 2020, it was only necessary travel due to a death in the family but in 2021, we did some vacation travel. In 2022, we have trips to GA, TX, HI, and Croatia planned.

With no end in sight to COVID, we’ve chosen to get on with our lives but we respect the decisions of others to quarantine or isolate or give up certain activities (travel, dining out, live entertainment, etc.) as they see fit. Thankfully we have a choice now.

 

[Badger]

There is no basis for it, it's a statement people keep making in wishful thinking but the reality of viruses is they have no particular selection pressure to become less severe. The virus will keep changing randomly, some random changes will be less severe and more contagious, but some will be more severe and more contagious. BA.2 definitely has me concerned because of the potentially increased severity.

+1 There is also the potential of Recombination in viruses in addition to random mutations.



Cheers!

 

[Another Reader]

This virus readily spreads before people get symptoms, and some people are asymptomatic but contagious. There is no evolutionary pressure for Covid-19 to become less severe (killing the host occurs well after spread to others), and much evolutionary pressure to become more infectious. That’s how Covid has been playing out for a while now.

Expecting otherwise (and believing in herd immunity to a rapidly mutating highly transmissible coronavirus) seems like wishful thinking to me.

Here's an early analysis of BA.2. Don't think this one will be the end.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.15.480166v1

 

[audreyh1]

Yeah, all our vaccines and almost all our treatments are aimed at the original strain, but the virus has moved far beyond that.

Omicron effectively neutralized vaccine passports and safe unmasked gatherings for vaccinated only. Not only does it evade the vaccines, but it is way more contagious. A larger gathering can easily have infected people present when local prevalence is high, regardless of vaccination status.

It’s true that vaccinated are still less likely to get infected or stay contagious as long, so there is some reduction in transmission. But this was easily overwhelmed as we can see from our recent mega outbreak. At least vaccinated not likely to get badly ill, especially if boosted. But we’re also facing protections waning over time.

 

[tmm99]

Does anybody know how long the booster is good for?

 

[Montecfo]

Fortunately, omicron drives less serious illness than prior variants, according to CDC.

Hopefully BA.2 will also be a less severe variant as a recent South African study suggests.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-16/study-shows-omicron-sub-variant-no-more-severe-than-first-strain

 

[38Chevy454]

Sigh. I certainly don't want to come across as blasé or indifferent to this news, but this strikes me a bit like "The Queen is dead. Long live the Queen!"

There is little doubt that new variants will continue to arise and blaze around the world, then fade into the background (perhaps to re-emerge later, like seasonal influenza strains). But what can we do about it? It's just a fact of the world. I will continue to get any and all recommended vaccines and boosters, and I will continue to wear masks in all situations where it's prudent to do so. But... but...

Life must go on.

I simply can't tolerate the idea of sacrificing more of my life to the fear of getting mildly (or moderately) sick from a coronavirus that has apparently become a permanent fixture of the world at this point. I will do (and have done) everything that public health officials and experts recommend, but I won't return to the bad old days of "sheltering in place" and living a small, limited life ala 2020 and early 2021. Obviously, the emergence of a new variant that's both much more deadly and highly resistant to vaccines would change this attitude, but until then, count me in the "triple-vax and chill" camp.

Agree completely. Except it seems there are way too many people still who are chicken little "sky is falling".

 

[Chuckanut]

It’s not a statement but rather a fact called evolution. Study any viral pandemic from history and you have your answer. Here is one of thousands of experts on the subject: https://news.northeastern.edu/2021/12/13/virus-evolution/

Interesting last paragraph from the above article:

Emphasis added....

“We are now influencing the virus to do these types of variants in a much shorter timescale because it’s feeling the pressure,” Amiji says. And that might help get our society out of the pandemic-state we’ve been living in. “What we are doing with vaccines is shortening that time between pandemic and endemic.”

 

[audreyh1]

Does anybody know how long the booster is good for?

It’s dropping but still protection after 4 months. Was originally 91% protection against hospitalization with Omicron. At 4 months had dropped to 78%, which is still high, but it’s dropping…. I don’t think anyone knows beyond that. Lots of articles discussing the recent CDC report.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220214/booster-effectiveness-wanes-after-4-months-study-shows
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...-effectiveness-wanes-remains-strong-rcna15951
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/968750

I’m at 4 months post booster now. DH is at 5 months. I wish there was a dialogue from health officials about what to do next.

 

[RetMD21]

Fortunately, omicron drives less serious illness than prior variants, according to CDC.

Hopefully BA.2 will also be a less severe variant as a recent South African study suggests.

It will be interesting to see how much post infection immunity is induced by Omicron. IDK if folks with a mostly upper respiratory infection will get much. Time will tell.

 

[Montecfo]

Interesting last paragraph from the above article:

Emphasis added....

That is certainly welcome news!

 

[2HOTinPHX]

Agree completely. Except it seems there are way too many people still who are chicken little "sky is falling".

Thank you for being the canaries in the coal mine....I will continue holding my breath for now and wait for better news...

 

[tmm99]

It’s dropping but still protection after 4 months. Was originally 91% protection against hospitalization with Omicron. At 4 months had dropped to 78%, which is still high, but it’s dropping…. I don’t think anyone knows beyond that. Lots of articles discussing the recent CDC report.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220214/booster-effectiveness-wanes-after-4-months-study-shows
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...-effectiveness-wanes-remains-strong-rcna15951
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/968750

I’m at 4 months post booster now. DH is at 5 months. I wish there was a dialogue from health officials about what to do next.

Thank you for the info, Audrey! Everything shut down again here right after I got my booster (Xmas Eve) but the officials started easing the restrictions at the beginning of February (restarted indoor dining, indoor sports activities, etc), so I started venturing out more when I was at about 1.3 months post-booster. I hope our hospitalization numbers stay down (or decline even more) and I won't have to worry too much when I'm past my 4-month mark...

 

[Out of Steam]

Two thoughts:
1. you might have gotten omicron and been asymptomatic.
2. I don't think people will stand for new mandates at this point.

I agree on both points. Our daughter probably had omicron in December, even though she never had a positive test in three tries (two rapid, one PCR). Her symptoms had passed by the time she visited us at Christmas.

I believe that better public communication could have left the option for returning restrictions next winter. The seasonality of this virus has been poorly dealt with throughout.

 

[Out of Steam]

Yeah, all our vaccines and almost all our treatments are aimed at the original strain, but the virus has moved far beyond that.

Being on an immunosuppressant drug, I'll be standing near the front of the line for booster optimized for later variants. Not sure I see added value in a fourth dose of an original vaccine at this point.

 

[RetMD21]

Here's a preprint from South Africa suggesting that outcomes with BA2 are not worse in humans https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.17.22271030v1

 

[audreyh1]

Being on an immunosuppressant drug, I'll be standing near the front of the line for booster optimized for later variants. Not sure I see added value in a fourth dose of an original vaccine at this point.

Exactly my gripe.

 

[MuirWannabe]

Exactly my gripe.

Captain, the warp speed is gone. We’re barely on impulse power

 

[dixonge]

I will continue to get any and all recommended vaccines and boosters, and I will continue to wear masks in all situations where it's prudent to do so. But... but...

Life must go on.

I simply can't tolerate the idea of sacrificing more of my life to the fear of getting mildly (or moderately) sick from a coronavirus that has apparently become a permanent fixture of the world at this point. I will do (and have done) everything that public health officials and experts recommend, but I won't return to the bad old days of "sheltering in place" and living a small, limited life ala 2020 and early 2021. Obviously, the emergence of a new variant that's both much more deadly and highly resistant to vaccines would change this attitude, but until then, count me in the "triple-vax and chill" camp.

We're triple-vaxxed (is that the new term now?) and the wife got COVID. Cough never got lower than her upper chest, fever never broke 100, but she felt icky and weak for a few days. I never had any symptoms and tested negative, but I am proceeding on the assumption that I was merely symptomless, and that I might have swabbed my nose insufficiently deeply. But we live in our RV full-time so I have difficulty believing that I was never exposed or infected. While my wife was recovering I was lying in bed awake one early morning and she took an extra deep breath and exhaled right across my face from two feet away. How many times does this happen per night?

Any way, her immune system should now be in top form since having COVID actually produces more and longer-lasting antibodies vs. mRNA vaccines.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02795-x

 

[Chuckanut]

Being on an immunosuppressant drug, I'll be standing near the front of the line for booster optimized for later variants. Not sure I see added value in a fourth dose of an original vaccine at this point.

I've heard talk that the Novavax vaccine might be the best 'booster' since it works somewhat differently in the body and thus stimulates more immune response. The maker has applied for emergency use. As usual time will tell.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-vaccine-fda-novavax-booster-11644871937?tesla=y

There are several reasons to think that Novavax may give a more powerful boost than a third or fourth mRNA shot. For one thing, the nanoparticle includes the whole spike protein, which could provoke a more complete immunity. So could the glycosylation of the spike—the addition of a sugar molecule in insect cells, which isn’t what the virus is expecting. Perhaps most important, the adjuvant (known as Matrix-M1), which comes from the inner bark of a Chilean soapbark tree, is very high in quality and has been used to make a malaria vaccine effective.

 

[Chuckanut]

If this virus is seasonal how come countries south of the equator often get spikes and low points about the same time as those above the equator?

 

[audreyh1]

If this virus is seasonal how come countries south of the equator often get spikes and low points about the same time as those above the equator?

It’s not seasonal. I don’t get the constant seasonal banter. We’ve had spikes at many different times of the year in the US. Yes, winter “season” spikes can be high due to holiday family gatherings that so far have driven major outbreaks, but we’ve had spikes in mid or later summer, early fall, whenever a new major variant shows up, different parts of the country…. It’s not like Covid goes away during the summer and shows up again late fall.

And as you point out, Southern Hemisphere spikes especially with new variants occur at about the same time.

The lows are when the current variant has finally died down, just waiting for the next one…..

 

[dixonge]

It’s not seasonal. I don’t get the constant seasonal banter. We’ve had spikes at many different times of the year in the US. Yes, winter “season” spikes can be high due to holiday family gatherings that so far have driven major outbreaks, but we’ve had spikes in mid or later summer, early fall, whenever a new major variant shows up, different parts of the country…. It’s not like Covid goes away during the summer and shows up again late fall.

And as you point out, Southern Hemisphere spikes especially with new variants occur at about the same time.

The lows are when the current variant has finally died down, just waiting for the next one…..

And yet, it is. Hang on, let's go back a bit.

The Spanish Flu didn't just disappear, and it was fairly non-seasonal when it started. The main three waves were Spring, the next Fall, then the next Winter to Spring. After that, it morphed and basically turned into the ancestor of every 'seasonal' Type A influenza ever since. Here is a great article on it:

https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended

In the same sense, COVID has been semi-seasonal, depending on the latitude. The Flu isn't particularly a winter-only flu in the equatorial bands, but is much more so in the northern latitudes. So even now, flu seasonality 'depends.'

More to your point, when COVID first hit the number of susceptible people was high, which overwhelmed any normal climate-related effects (temperature, sunlight, etc.). Now, after vaccines and infections have immunized a large portion of the global population (just like the flu) climate effects are more significant, which will help morph it into a seasonal virus.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/is-covid-19-seasonal-69402

 

[Alan]

I've heard talk that the Novavax vaccine might be the best 'booster' since it works somewhat differently in the body and thus stimulates more immune response. The maker has applied for emergency use. As usual time will tell.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-vaccine-fda-novavax-booster-11644871937?tesla=y

I hope this is correct because Novavax is one of the 4 different vaccines my wife and I have had. Our Covid record on the app only shows AZ, Pfizer and Moderna because our Novavax jab was part of a trial before it was approved in the UK.