Best CD, MM Rates & Bank Special Deals Thread 2023 - Please post updates here

[Healthy Lifestyle]

Vanguard VMFXX 5.03% today - I sit and and watch happily.
I have trouble chasing 5.3 & 5.35% CD/Treasuries with duration risk.
Plus, the Fed speak on possible 2 more rate hikes by end of year.
What to do with cash on the sideline, or just be happy with current MM Funds?

 

[njhowie]

Vanguard VMFXX 5.03% today - I sit and and watch happily.
I have trouble chasing 5.3 & 5.35% CD/Treasuries with duration risk.
Plus, the Fed speak on possible 2 more rate hikes by end of year.
What to do with cash on the sideline, or just be happy with current MM Funds?

Yet again, folks are getting worked up thinking they need to get the last 1/4 or 1/2 point. Why do you have trouble chasing 5.3 & 5.35% CD/Treasuries with duration risk? Not even 18 months ago they were below 1.0%.

Maybe there are 2 more hikes coming by year end, maybe not. Based on the Fed speak the past few weeks, prognosticators around here were sure that we were going to get 0.25% hike this week.

If you want longer term CDs and Treasuries in your portfolio, buy some now, don't worry about the last 1/4 or 1/2 point - it's not going to make a difference in the bigger picture of your portfolio. Buy some, don't shoot your entire wad, you can always buy more if rates continue higher. However, it's likely prudent to be locking in some duration to have these 5%+ yields guaranteed while we still have them.

What will make a difference is if rates fall back down by 25% or more and you're sitting with your MM funds waiting for the higher rate CD/Treasury which never comes. Holding out for the last 1/4 or 1/2 point is just another form of market timing, you likely won't win.

 

[Car-Guy]

Yet again, folks are getting worked up thinking they need to get the last 1/4 or 1/2 point. Why do you have trouble chasing 5.3 & 5.35% CD/Treasuries with duration risk? Not even 18 months ago they were below 1.0%.

Greed.... FOMO....

 

[jldavid47]

Vanguard VMFXX 5.03% today - I sit and and watch happily.
I have trouble chasing 5.3 & 5.35% CD/Treasuries with duration risk.
Plus, the Fed speak on possible 2 more rate hikes by end of year.
What to do with cash on the sideline, or just be happy with current MM Funds?

Why are you happy? You are giving up 32 basis points of return compared to even a 3-month brokered CD today. There is virtually no duration risk 3 months out (or even 6 months out). Your disadvantaged money sitting in a MMF would have to average over 5.35% over the next 90 days which means it would have to rise to 5.67% rather quickly and that ain't happening even if the Fed raises rates in July.

Your attitude and your argument makes no sense to me. People can time interest rate peaks no better than they can time the stock market. Keep durations short? Fine. Let money rot in a MMF at a 32 basis point disadvantage in the hope you can catch an interest rate peak and do better over time? Good luck with that.

 

[Healthy Lifestyle]

Why are you happy? You are giving up 32 basis points of return compared to even a 3-month brokered CD today. There is virtually no duration risk 3 months out (or even 6 months out). Your disadvantaged money sitting in a MMF would have to average over 5.35% over the next 90 days which means it would have to rise to 5.67% rather quickly and that ain't happening even if the Fed raises rates in July.

Your attitude and your argument makes no sense to me. People can time interest rate peaks no better than they can time the stock market. Keep durations short? Fine. Let money rot in a MMF at a 32 basis point disadvantage in the hope you can catch an interest rate peak and do better over time? Good luck with that.

Thanks for your words of wisdom, but I think I have a great attitude.
I have won the game and am financially in a good position to relax.
You should try it!

 

[Freedom56]

People should sit back and relax. This is the "golden period" of fixed income investing where your cash can earn 5%, CDs and treasury's 5%+, Agency notes 5.5%+, and high grade corporate notes 6%+.

 

[explanade]

US Bank, at least in my zip code, has 4.8% for 7 months, 4.9% for 11 months and 4.95% for 15 or 19 months.

Seems like the 11 months might be the best value if one believes rates will be higher 11 months out.

But the 15 or 19 months may make more sense if one thinks rates will be lower a year from now.

Hard to predict.

 

[jldavid47]

Thanks for your words of wisdom, but I think I have a great attitude.
I have won the game and am financially in a good position to relax.
You should try it!

If you've "won the game" then why on earth are you concerned about duration risk?

 

[Montecfo]

US Bank, at least in my zip code, has 4.8% for 7 months, 4.9% for 11 months and 4.95% for 15 or 19 months.

Seems like the 11 months might be the best value if one believes rates will be higher 11 months out.

But the 15 or 19 months may make more sense if one thinks rates will be lower a year from now.

Hard to predict.

The Fed is forecasting cuts in 2024. That begins in 7 months.

 

[Car-Guy]

People should sit back and relax. This is the "golden period" of fixed income investing where your cash can earn 5%, CDs and treasury's 5%+, Agency notes 5.5%+, and high grade corporate notes 6%+.

+1 I haven't been this comfortable investing in "anything" in decades. Swing trading equities the last few years has been stressful, even if it was my surplus funds. Now 100% in fixed income. I spend about 90% less time watching the financial talking heads these days. Take more and longer naps.

The Fed is forecasting cuts in 2024. That begins in 7 months.

Hopeful that will be later in 2024 and not earlier. So maybe 16 to 18 mos. In anycase, if things goes as he seems to be planning,, I'll start reloading my CD ladders late this year. Until then I'm throwing the funds from maturing CD's into SWVXX.

 

[njhowie]

The Fed is forecasting cuts in 2024. That begins in 7 months.

And what was the Fed forecasting just last month compared to what it did this week?

 

[Free bird]

The Fed is forecasting cuts in 2024. That begins in 7 months.

Hello Monte. Is the Fed forecast for rates what they refer to as the dot plot? Is that something that Bernanke created during his time at the Fed? I thought I heard or read that somewhere. Thanks Monte

 

[Graybeard]

Placed an order for $75k CROSS RIVER BANK TEANECK NJ CD FDIC #58410 IAM 5.35% 06/21/24 06/23/23 yesterday. I'm working on longer T bills and CDs though I will still put some money into 3 or 6 month T bills.

 

[swk7907]

Anybody know why the Golden Period thread got closed down? I didn't see anything inappropriate though I hadn't checked it in a day or two.

I used to like reading about the different bonds people were buying there.

 

[JoeWras]

Anybody know why the Golden Period thread got closed down? I didn't see anything inappropriate though I hadn't checked it in a day or two.

I used to like reading about the different bonds people were buying there.

They are reviewing things right now. We'll see what the mods determine.

You missed a bit of hot discussion in the last 18 hours. There were warnings, and persistent postings. Beyond that, no need to go into details.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

They are reviewing things right now. We'll see what the mods determine.

You missed a bit of hot discussion in the last 18 hours. There were warnings, and persistent postings. Beyond that, no need to go into details.

Wow, a lot can happen in the 24 hours since I last was here!

 

[Montecfo]

Hello Monte. Is the Fed forecast for rates what they refer to as the dot plot? Is that something that Bernanke created during his time at the Fed? I thought I heard or read that somewhere. Thanks Monte

Yes the dot plot. Yes Bernanke. It is nice to know the fed's mindset when they make pronouncements. But is also a bit disquieting to see how fallible those plans and forecasts seem to be.

Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

 

[DallasGuy]

Why are you happy? You are giving up 32 basis points of return compared to even a 3-month brokered CD today. There is virtually no duration risk 3 months out (or even 6 months out). Your disadvantaged money sitting in a MMF would have to average over 5.35% over the next 90 days which means it would have to rise to 5.67% rather quickly and that ain't happening even if the Fed raises rates in July.

Your attitude and your argument makes no sense to me. People can time interest rate peaks no better than they can time the stock market. Keep durations short? Fine. Let money rot in a MMF at a 32 basis point disadvantage in the hope you can catch an interest rate peak and do better over time? Good luck with that.

Not everyone wants to "worry" about missing out on a 32 basis points return.

 

[Accidental Retiree]

US Bank, at least in my zip code, has 4.8% for 7 months, 4.9% for 11 months and 4.95% for 15 or 19 months.

Seems like the 11 months might be the best value if one believes rates will be higher 11 months out.

But the 15 or 19 months may make more sense if one thinks rates will be lower a year from now.

Hard to predict.

I was surprised to see that through Vanguard, I can buy a 12-month US Bank CD for 5.25%.

That’s a better rate than we can get at our local branch.

 

[jldavid47]

Not everyone wants to "worry" about missing out on a 32 basis points return.

Go back and read his original post. He's "worried" that he'll miss out on higher rates if he buys CDs/Treasuries now instead of a few months from now. My response was pointing out the lack of logic in that approach.

 

[Healthy Lifestyle]

Not everyone wants to "worry" about missing out on a 32 basis points return.

That was my thought process when I posted the comment about being happy with 5%+ in a MMF.
I was sad to read the follow up comment from a poster stating that I had a bad attitude for supporting MMF, lol.

 

[RetiredAndLovingIt]

They are reviewing things right now. We'll see what the mods determine.

You missed a bit of hot discussion in the last 18 hours. There were warnings, and persistent postings. Beyond that, no need to go into details.

The last post I saw the OP posted that he'd back off and not comment any more on the subject that was causing the dissension and I thought the playground fight was over, obviously not.
It's a shame, I think there was a lot of great information in that thread and I hope they reactivate it.

 

[Free bird]

The last post I saw the OP posted that he'd back off and not comment any more on the subject that was causing the dissension and I thought the playground fight was over, obviously not.
It's a shame, I think there was a lot of great information in that thread and I hope they reactivate it.

+1

 

[lordjust]

+1

me too... im sure he will tone it down.

 

[JoeWras]

The thread is back. All we gotta do is move on over there and discuss the original topic at hand and it will be OK.