Lsbcal
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I would say that a position of $130K is not at all small potatoes. Congrats. Now what are you going to do with the extra $2K?
Beyond this land...There will be Dragons!
- Thread starter NYEXPAT
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I would say that a position of $130K is not at all small potatoes. Congrats. Now what are you going to do with the extra $2K?
ownyourfuture
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AAA+++
I would say that a position of $130K is not at all small potatoes. Congrats. Now what are you going to do with the extra $2K?
Well half of it is probably taxes now. The downside of successful market timing.
NW-Bound
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Paying taxes on gains is much better than getting deduction on losses, methinks.
You made me look. VUG jumped in after-hours trading. Dunno about buying anything, as I have stocks out my ears already.
Today, my stocks are down -1.97%, compared to -2.08% for the S&P, -2.11 for the Dow, and -2.27% for the NASDAQ. Does that make me feel any better? Nope.
You made me look. VUG jumped in after-hours trading. Dunno about buying anything, as I have stocks out my ears already.
Today, my stocks are down -1.97%, compared to -2.08% for the S&P, -2.11 for the Dow, and -2.27% for the NASDAQ. Does that make me feel any better? Nope.
Running_Man
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VUG price jump was some poor investor who bought 100 shares and got screwed by the market maker.
OP
OP
NYEXPAT
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Now that we have entered the Land of Dragons, I went back to 80% cash or so! My Year End numbers will reflect the two day loss and will probably bring me down to about +12 to+13% for the year. I will still have hedge the remaining 15-20% of my holdings.
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Running_Man
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That is a major swing at portfolio management!
OP
OP
NYEXPAT
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15-20% of portfolio is in individual stocks USA & China across 6 accounts and can only slap on a synthetic hedge. Some is in 3 mos treasury bills that mature weekly the other roughly 80%, also spread over 5-6 accounts and can move in and out of the SPY or QQQ in less than 30 sec. I use Proshares SDS for hedging or shorting.
The documentary movie Inside Job interviewed several academic economists that had positions in government about transparency in what their papers promoted and who funded that "research". This clip is a poor sample, but you get the idea:
OP
OP
NYEXPAT
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And now a shutdown has been averted which will cause a relief rally tomorrow and I will make another $2000 on Gilead.
You couldn't write a movie script about this stuff...nobody would believe it.
Oh, I forgot to mention I bought 1000 shares at $63.97 near end of day.
...excuse me, have to look up this hubris word and see what it means...
You couldn't write a movie script about this stuff...nobody would believe it.
Oh, I forgot to mention I bought 1000 shares at $63.97 near end of day.
...excuse me, have to look up this hubris word and see what it means...
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audreyh1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I don’t know. Futures are not looking so good right now.......
Market timing
Keep in mind EVERYTHING is market timing to some degree. I think it behooves us to stay away from that label because the minute it gets attached to an action, that action suddenly becomes radioactive (like being short like the original poster was, which was a VERY prudent move, with a MORE acceptable risk reward scenario than being long, by far)
DCA is market timing. Rebalancing is market timing. Investing a lump sum all at once is market timing. Spreading it out is market timing (all to some degree). But I think it's prudent to overweight or underweight based on historical valuations.
Keep in mind EVERYTHING is market timing to some degree. I think it behooves us to stay away from that label because the minute it gets attached to an action, that action suddenly becomes radioactive (like being short like the original poster was, which was a VERY prudent move, with a MORE acceptable risk reward scenario than being long, by far)
DCA is market timing. Rebalancing is market timing. Investing a lump sum all at once is market timing. Spreading it out is market timing (all to some degree). But I think it's prudent to overweight or underweight based on historical valuations.
My trading finally caught up with me a little bit as I am now stuck with a unrealized loss of a couple thousand bucks in Celgene and Gilead. They were just too cheap to pass up at $61.50 and $63
Maybe can get some sort of small Santa rally later this week?
Maybe can get some sort of small Santa rally later this week?
Lsbcal
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
ERD50
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I've done some of these plays in the past. And it is a lot of fun to take some small % (though decent $ amount), sometimes several times a day. You find yourself singing that song 'This ain't workin', That's the way ya do it, Money for nothing...' (I never did get the 'chicks for free', though
).But then, it always seemed that eventually, the trading stock would drop, and the drop wiped out most/all/more of the gains. I'd get stuck with a lot of loser, dead-weight stocks, and not enough liquidity to do much trading (with the amount that I limited myself to for this). I decided to stop, but it is fun while it goes your way.
Good luck!
-ERD50
OldShooter
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Yup. BTDT.
In "Your Money and Your Brain" Jason Zweig explains this. It turns out that when we have an unexpected gambling "win" our brain gives itself a dopamine shot. The brain learns to anticipate situations where a "win" might occur and actually releases some dopamine in anticipation, encouraging the gamble.
If no "win" occurs, we don't get a dopamine shot. So that basically keeps us looking for those "wins" and those dopamine rewards.
We don't have as much free will as we think we do.
ERD50
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
It was also interesting to note, that Celgene and Gilead really only dropped about as much as the overall market, it wasn't some out-sized swing.
EZ come, EZ go.
-ERD50
I actually feel pretty good about Gilead. It is at the bottom of a 5 year range and essentially is back to where it was before they bought Pharmasset. They have some 27 billion in cash on hand with a market cap of around 85 billion and a pretty high dividend now of 3.7% or something around there.
Not AT&T high dividend but then again they are not in debt up to their eyeballs like T is.
Celgene is a bit of a stinker, I only bought it cause I thought it might bounce. I should have just bought double in Gilead.
Not AT&T high dividend but then again they are not in debt up to their eyeballs like T is.
Celgene is a bit of a stinker, I only bought it cause I thought it might bounce. I should have just bought double in Gilead.
Koolau
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Full disclosure - I haven't even checked my port in the last few months. I do have some stock from my old company that I check once in a while. It's down a good chunk in the latest sell off but WAY above what I "paid" for it (a form of employee compensation from back in the day). In short, I have about a 30% or so (heh, heh, probably less now) commitment to stock in my total investible portfolio. I rarely do anything with it. Maybe tweak it every 3 or 4 years (I think I have now been 'tweaked').
But what I wanted to comment on was the thread title. "Beyond this land, there be dragons." This phrase was uttered in the TV miniseries FARGO. Billie Bob Thornton played a (somewhat) likable character (a stone killer, probably sociopath, but let's not call names, here.) To warn off a police officer who had pulled him over (BBT was driving a stolen car at the time) this phrase was used - and it was delivered so well that it worked. Returning you now to tonight's scheduled subject. May your 2019 performance in the stock market be awesome. Of course, YMMV.
But what I wanted to comment on was the thread title. "Beyond this land, there be dragons." This phrase was uttered in the TV miniseries FARGO. Billie Bob Thornton played a (somewhat) likable character (a stone killer, probably sociopath, but let's not call names, here.) To warn off a police officer who had pulled him over (BBT was driving a stolen car at the time) this phrase was used - and it was delivered so well that it worked. Returning you now to tonight's scheduled subject. May your 2019 performance in the stock market be awesome. Of course, YMMV.
OP
OP
NYEXPAT
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BBT used very different phrasing to say essentially the same thing. But since we passed below 2600 we can see the Dragons clearly now and they are called "support/resistance levels"!
Koolau
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Here's the exact scene - I haven't watched it for a while. Always gives me the creeps - in a good BBT way!
Sorry for the interruption to a serious discussion - a little BBT "levity" seemed like a nice distraction - or not. YMMV
Lsbcal
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I looked at the width of the "V" in 3 past SP500 declines not associated with a recession, i.e. the time to get back to past market highs. The data:
Have decided to go to sleep for the next year.
P.S. this was posted in another thread but maybe more appropriate to this thread.
Have decided to go to sleep for the next year.
P.S. this was posted in another thread but maybe more appropriate to this thread.
