Bird watching - Black Swans

[Newventurer]

A Black Swan event is apparently unknowable and therefore likely unhedged, thus very impactful.

Just for fun - what Black Swan event can you conjure up that would take this Bull down?

As an example - the orbiting Elan Musk Tesla somehow falls out of orbit and crashes into the International Space station creating an international crisis.

 

[Meadbh]

The trade war will do it.

 

[joeea]

War with Canada.

 

[donheff]

Nukes in North Korea or Pakistan and India.

 

[VanWinkle]

Nukes in North Korea or Pakistan and India.

They all have them already- the bull should have been over years ago....

 

[Gumby]

Giant alien spacecraft appear above major world cities, as in the movie Independence Day.

A highly pathogenic form of avian flu becomes easily transmissible among humans, leading to a deadly worldwide pandemic.

An unknown virus kills off all grasses in the world, including corn, wheat, barley, oats and rice. We all starve as a consequence.

 

[REWahoo]

Repeal of the Law of Gravity.

 

[cooch96]

Sky darkening volcano leading to poisoned, ashy seas and severe crop shortages.

Gov’t debt gets downgraded and treated as junk.

A computer virus worms it’s way across the globe, wiping out electronic records of wealth.

Boy, this is a cheery thread. I’m almost sorry I participated.

 

[MichaelB]

The one ring is reforged, Sauron rises from the ashes of Mt Doom and takes over the world because there are no more Hobbits for a new quest.

 

[REWahoo]

Sexually active grasshoppers experience a population explosion and take revenge on serial murderer bicyclists.

 

[foxfirev5]

Since it is unknowable I don't know.

 

[Mdlerth]

Direct from Amazon: sunglasses for your cell phone

The one ring is reforged, Sauron rises from the ashes of Mt Doom and takes over the world because there are no more Hobbits for a new quest.

I'll take the ring and dispose of it. You can trust me...

...NOT! To be absolutely honest, if you gave me limitless power I'd be abusing it left and right. And I'm a nice person. Now imagine what bad people do when they gain power.


Back on topic: My suggestion for Black Swan event is a solar EMP that fries every electronic device on the planet.

 

[Taxman59]

The one ring is reforged, Sauron rises from the ashes of Mt Doom and takes over the world because there are no more Hobbits for a new quest.

+100

 

[candrew]

Life imitates art in the movie, "A Day Without A Mexican" when a mysterious fog surrounds the boundaries of the Unites States. All the Mexicans have disappeared bringing the nation's economy to its knees.

 

[target2019]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

1. The event is a surprise (to the observer).
2. The event has a major effect.
3. After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals.

Cryptocurrency collapse - Now that I told you, it will not be a surprise!

WW III - That fits the criteria, I believe. Maybe we'll have just one WW in this century.

Meteor impact - That will happen.

Take your pick!

 

[Taxman59]

I think the EMP is good start, but many large utilities have a plan in place to get a start on repairing the grid. I think the real Black Swan will be the aftermath of the EMP, all of the millennials and younger who are totally lost when told to look something up, and they don't know how to use a library!

 

[LOL!]

A Black Swan event is apparently unknowable and therefore likely unhedged, thus very impactful.

Just for fun - what Black Swan event can you conjure up that would take this Bull down?

As an example - the orbiting Elan Musk Tesla somehow falls out of orbit and crashes into the International Space station creating an international crisis.

Your example threw me off since it would cause equities to go up since the ISS is a boondoggle of almost no value to humanity.

But in the same vein, the Chinese Tiangong-1 space station crashes into the White House or U.S. Capitol Building. Then again, stocks might go up.

 

[Ginny]

This is fun

 

[Exrook]

Sexually active grasshoppers experience a population explosion and take revenge on serial murderer bicyclists.

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/does-this-make-us-bad-people-90990.html

 

[Chuckanut]

Oprah Winfrey announces she is running for President in 2020 - as a Libertarian.

 

[MichaelB]

I'll take the ring and dispose of it. You can trust me...

...NOT! To be absolutely honest, if you gave me limitless power I'd be abusing it left and right. And I'm a nice person. Now imagine what bad people do when they gain power.


Back on topic: My suggestion for Black Swan event is a solar EMP that fries every electronic device on the planet.

What do you mean, “back on topic” ? I was totally serious and would expect you more than any other member to understand that.

I also think people here and elsewhere seriously underestimate the likelihood of a zombie uprising.

 

[OldShooter]

The fat kid detonates a nuclear device in space, creating prompt dose and EMP sufficient to kill a large fraction of the non-hardened LEO and geosynchronous satellites that are in the line of sight from the event. Probably some stuff on the ground, too.

 

[NW-Bound]

So far, no mention of the good old-fashioned asteroid. Did I miss it?

Oh, dumb me.

The end of the world by a killer asteroid is a sure thing. No surprise there. We are now talking about a black swan happening even before that.

 

[W2R]

I can think of lots of awful events that could happen, such as World War III, but I am less than convinced that any black swan could actually directly cause the end of our stock market boom. Seems like stock market ups and downs, while huge at times, are far less predictable than we might wish. Perhaps the Butterfly Effect might be more relevant than we think, or perhaps even that is too deterministic.

To summarize I guess that my approach to this fits in the "What Will Be, Will Be" category.

 

[Mdlerth]

What do you mean, “back on topic” ? I was totally serious and would expect you more than any other member to understand that.

I also think people here and elsewhere seriously underestimate the likelihood of a zombie uprising.

It was I who strayed off topic by speculating about my own inability to resist the lure of the Ring. The OP's question was about the event, not about the weakness of Men.

And while I agree about the zombies coming, don't they eat brains? Look at society today - I'm betting they'll starve.