Right. And that's where I think Bogle (and Buffett) make sense. Bogle paints a pessimistic picture, admits he could be totally wrong and then says if you think you can stay out and get back in when it's good again you're statistically going to do even worse. So maybe you change your allocation a little.
Buffett is permanently optimistic on the US economy. He says all the time that in 10-20 years the market will be much, much higher. How and when and what along the way. No idea.
He then proceeds to invest in a small number if companies (compared to VTI) with great conviction.
Neither of then does what guys like hussman do. Have compelling theories about why what they think will happen is almost certain and make investment decisions around it. That's what most of us (including me) naturally tend to do. When I look at my results compared to just simple indexing... I kinda suck at it![Smile :) :)](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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Buffett is permanently optimistic on the US economy. He says all the time that in 10-20 years the market will be much, much higher. How and when and what along the way. No idea.
He then proceeds to invest in a small number if companies (compared to VTI) with great conviction.
Neither of then does what guys like hussman do. Have compelling theories about why what they think will happen is almost certain and make investment decisions around it. That's what most of us (including me) naturally tend to do. When I look at my results compared to just simple indexing... I kinda suck at it
Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app