Bull Market

runnerr

Recycles dryer sheets
Joined
Apr 11, 2005
Messages
118
How much longer can the market keep going? And how is it going to make its decent?
 
In the words of the famous mohel Rabbi Avraham Rappaport, "It won't be long now."
 
I used the GSI index as a monitor. How many times in the last month has Greenspan split an infinitive?
 
I like the part where you get to smugly say: I don't know and don't care, because you have your defense in place and ready to go. Besides - in the long run the trend is up, you believe in RTM and you have read all the right books and studies - right?

Still the old saw is: The Market climbs a wall of worry. When your cab driver/barber/insert favorite person starts giving stock tips then it's time to sell.

Still have some memory of the good old days 1966-1982 AND a 10% interest in a non working gold mine in CO, some gold/silver/platinum coins - sold most of the real estate/Oregon timberland - ate the freeze dryed food.

In the words of J P Morgan when asked about the market - It will fluctuate.

heh heh heh :) Pssst - balanced index baby!
 
How much longer can the market keep going? And how is it going to make its decent?


boy if anyone can answere this question they are probley richer than bill gates.

reminds me of an interview i heard with peter lynch

peter where do you see rates headed

answere: dont know dont really care

well peter your one of the greatest money manager of all time, where do you see stocks headed .

answere; dont know , dont really care

look if i could correctly predict the markets direction 3x in a row correctly id be a multi billionair instead of just rich!
 
I dunno. But a market problem will likely be triggered by problems in the junk market, since stupid LBOs are what is driving a lot of the market now.
 
How much longer can the market keep going? And how is it going to make its decent?

It sure has been fun, hasn't it!

My guess is that it will continue to keep going until sometime during the year after the next Presidential election, at which point it will fall back and regroup.

I try not to time the market. However, if it tanks and is still looking terrible in 2009-2010, then I might have to wait a while longer before retiring. I hope not.
 
I used the GSI index as a monitor

I use CSI as a monitor....if they create another tv series...it is bearish....Same could be said for Law and Order...
 
This has been a nice ride. I did some re-allocating this week and am comfortable with a continuation or a drop. I've got cash on the side to buy bargains .. if we get some. But, P/Es are not unreasonable, we may get a rate cut later this year, presidential race is looming -- so this bull may have legs. In other words, I dunno -- but, I like to think I'm ready either way.

I know the market has been doing good because I have been checking my balences often -- when it drops I find something else to do ;)
 
Unless your about to retire, don't worry too much about the market dropping. If you are, I'd be locking that money in safer investments.
 
Like more famous (and modest!) folk, I too bravely say "I don't know what the market's going to do!"

I would advocate:

Are you in your limits of your asset allocation? A market run-up can make your 60% stocks become 80%; you are asking for trouble perhaps.

Now might be an excellent time to take some money off the table.

-- Pedorrero, who is going to sell some of his stocks, but because he needs to pay an attorney*, not because he thinks a slump is coming.

* To sue a Trust, to distribute loot to him, including the opportunity to sell a lot more stocks! Details elsewhere in my recent past >:D
 
I was reading through the Dodge & Cox Balanced annual report. I like the allocation flexability.
 
This has been a nice ride. I did some re-allocating this week and am comfortable with a continuation or a drop. I've got cash on the side to buy bargains ..

I'm doing the same -- have been selling a bit into the market strength as a way to take some money off the table. Sold some emerging markets because the China run really has me worried. If/when we get a pull-back, I have my list of buys and cash waiting to be deployed. It doesn't hurt that I'm getting nearly 5% on that cash in my money market acct while I wait...
 
Wow! How things have changed.

All the way back in March people were crying over the market crash! Here it is in early June with the 2B portfolio up a little over 10% since then (at the bottom of the February "crash" I was just about even for the year).

This has been a good run but we've had some good, but not major, corrections. I've seen runs that have gone on for a couple of years. Since I've left the fraternity of market timers, I'll just have to rebalance in August. If things hold up I'll be real happy because I'll take my current nominal 20% cash and run it up to 40% in anticipation of FIRE-ing. :D

Hang in there. Everytime I have intentionally market-timed, I've gotten the "green weenie."
 
I like the part where you get to smugly say: I don't know and don't care, because you have your defense in place and ready to go.
Surely we can all fit through the exit at the same [-]sell stop price[/-] time, can't we?

Gosh, I miss NY. ;)
The day I got back from Manhattan we received a bat mitzvah invitation in the mail.

I could've picked up a dozen appropriate cards at many shops within six blocks of our hotel. On Oahu, however, we just gave up and went with a local-style pidgin card...
 
CSI: Omaha. Then I know that they have really run out of ideas. Or Warren Buffett was sponsoring it.
 
I dunno. But a market problem will likely be triggered by problems in the junk market, since stupid LBOs are what is driving a lot of the market now.


im willing to bet it will be triggered by something not even on the radar screen. like another country or political event causing it. now the world catches cold and we sneeze
 
:D

Gosh, I miss NY. ;)

What? Even though post 9/11 we're all New Yorkers, badmouthing N.Y. is de rigour - aka the Pace picante sauce ad. At least that's what I learned at my Father's knee - who was married in City Hall(1939) and was a Brooklyn Dodger fan to the very end(in spite of the move). My old best pal Bonnie Lou in Denver(by way of Plattsburg and New York City) said you should never be nice to a New Yorker unless you don't like them.

So even if you do - never admit it.

heh heh heh - they said similar things about New Orleans - they even had an anti bad mouth campaign a number of years ago before Katrina. Love those old stock market cliches - even if I'm not always sure what they mean.
 

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