Case Study - Fiddling With Portfolio

joesxm3

Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Joined
Apr 13, 2007
Messages
1,324
Early in 2021 I decided to rearrange my portfolio and started making some changes that eventually included getting out of bond funds, adding more individual tech-growth stocks, getting out of Asian ETFs etc.

Since things have gone down quite a bit, I have had some angst wondering what things would have been like had I just continued to follow my "set it and forget it" plan.

I keep track of things in a spreadsheet that I make a copy of every weekend and update the investments and their current values. So I dug out the spreadsheet from the end of March 2021 which was close to the time I started making the changes. I updated the value of each holding with today's prices.

The results are somewhat interesting.

The two individual stocks I held at that time were JNJ and CVX. Both are up quite a bit from March 2021.

The Matthews Asian Funds are down quite a bit. All of my other funds are also down, except for a small TRP Mid East fund and VNQ REIT funds.

The ETFs I had in the metals sector including gold miner ETFs were still up.

My allocation in March 2021 was:
cash 42%
equity funds and ETFs 24%
bond funds 11.5%
REIT 4%
metal ETFs 16%
other (what ever it takes to add up to 100% since these are rough numbers)

Today I do not hold bond funds and my equity allocation is about 35%.

When I factor in my spending over the past year I end up with, compared to the amount the portfolio was worth at the end of March 2021.

Had I just kept exactly what I had in March 2021 I would be down (4.17%).

After fiddling with things I am down about (7.5%).


I did not try to calculate down from the high point.

I guess this is a data point in favor of sticking with your allocation, although the smaller loss percentage might be affected by the 10% increase in equity allocation before the drop happened.

I take some solace that it seems I have not messed things up as bad as I may have thought.

It will also be interesting to do this comparison after the market picks back up to see if my increased equity allocation and increased risk will rebound better than the conservative allocation.
 
Early in 2021 I decided to rearrange my portfolio and started making some changes that eventually included getting out of bond funds, adding more individual tech-growth stocks, getting out of Asian ETFs etc...

Getting out of bond funds is a reasonable thing to do, given that the Fed was starting a rate hike cycle.

I have no comment about getting out of Asian ETFs. I have only a small position in VWO (emerging market), and do not watch it too closely.

Getting into high-tech growth stocks this late in the bull market is not good, particularly as the Fed is tightening. The tech sector was so frothy, I made sure that all my holdings had a low P/E ratio. Even so, they got hammered along with the big names.

I have not made significant changes to my AA. The energy, metal mining, generally natural resource stocks have been climbing and change the sector weighing in my portfolio, and I just let them be.
 
Last edited:
I would have to check how much the Asian funds dropped before I got out, but for the period in my OP they are down quite a bit.

Matthews Pacific Tiger MAPTX (37.88%)
Mathews Dividend Companies MAPIX (35.45%)
Matthews China MCHFX (47.68%)

I had quite a nice run of gains with them from the early 2000's when I bought them.

My two Fidelity bond funds were down about 9.6% during this time period.
BSV was down 5.71% and VCSH down 6.34%.

I think it would be interesting to dig out my spreadsheet from right before the covid money pump turned on and see how that measures up using the same methodology.
 
Heh, heh, I can barely run my own life (or portfolio) but I sense some market timing here. I've finally gotten to the point that I only want to rebalance from time to time - not seriously change my AA. Very much a personal decision, so YMMV.
 
OK I confess I messed with my allocation over that period as well, increasing equities to 86% at one point, currently 78% equities, 10% cash. From March 1st 2021 to today, we are down -3.55%. I thought it would have been far worse, but we had a big run up to November or so, so the big drop in 2022 was just a washout. I started doing covered calls to protect some equity exposure this year, but I was so heavily invested in large cap growth and tech, I got beat up worst than the S&P, currently down about the same as the US market at -14.5% YTD. A blended portfolio of 60/40 would be down YTD -11.2%.

If you look at March 1 2021 to date, a 60/40 should be up about 1.6%, US stocks 4.5% up. So, I guess I messed up as well in my allocations.
 
Last edited:
Lesson 1: you never want to sell JNJ.

Lesson 2: good to own o&g when the economy is awakening from a shock (as in 2009) or a pandemic.

Lesson 3: that's a lot of cash.
 
One's portfolio over time is like a bar of soap - the more you handle it, the smaller it gets.
 
Back
Top Bottom