Corona Virus, Covid and the future

[audreyh1]

I’m mainly keeping an eye on where the big delta-fueled outbreaks are. Not around here yet, thank goodness. At least as far as I know.

We are wearing a mask in the grocery store because most people still are, even though it’s no longer required. Solidarity mainly. I think many people are more comfortable indoors public with other people masked.

In terms of local cases, my county still can’t get below 5 average daily cases per 100,000. In fact last 2 weeks it jumped back up to almost 9. We seem to be waffling here.

We are a highly vaccinated, large population county. Vaccination rates are well above the state average and continuing to build, but still cases seem not to want to drop anymore.

I see in my state cases have risen 24% in the past two weeks. Ugh!

ETA: I see that this week the Texas has the top 7 counties in the nation in terms of cases per 100,000! Several counties along the LA border - the north half - are having serious outbreaks. I wonder if it's Delta related.

 

[timo2]

]I also will wear a mask in a place where 1) the employees are masked 2) If the place is creepy crowded with low air circulation. That BBC article Alan linked to helped confirm my "I don't want to get sick with anything' POV.

 

[REWahoo]

I see in my state cases have risen 24% in the past two weeks. Ugh!

ETA: I see that this week the Texas has the top 7 counties in the nation in terms of cases per 100,000! Several counties along the LA border - the north half - are having serious outbreaks. I wonder if it's Delta related.

Not sure what variant but I expect those East TX infection numbers to grow significantly.

I have a number of relatives living in that area of the state. They are strongly opposed to vaccination for reasons I will not get into here. They have a lot of company as the county they live in has only 15% of the population fully vaccinated. Most of the other counties in that area are less that 25%, far lower than the ~47% for the overall state.

Doesn't look good.

 

[W2R]

True Confessions!

We are wearing a mask in the grocery store because most people still are, even though it’s no longer required. Solidarity mainly. I think many people are more comfortable indoors public with other people masked.

]I also will wear a mask in a place where 1) the employees are masked 2) If the place is creepy crowded with low air circulation. That BBC article Alan linked to helped confirm my "I don't want to get sick with anything' POV.

Confession time - -

Louisiana's mask mandate was lifted on April 28th. Almost nobody wears masks here any more. Even on the rare occasion when a business has a "masks required" sign at the door, the employees have theirs down under their nose or chin so apparently it's just corporate CYA.

So anyway, I utterly despise masks, probably more than anyone else on the face of this green earth for heavy psychological reasons I won't go into. So, I figure I'm the perfect choice to take a hit for the team now that the mandate is lifted. I stopped wearing them on April 28th except at my one medical appointment, whenever I am around somebody wearing a mask, or any time it seems possible that somebody else might care (no need to terrorize anybody!!! ).

I still don't go out much except eating lunch out every day with Frank. During these two months I've been to the grocery store twice, my doctor once, and Walgreen's once, to the bank once, and I think that's about all. I know, wild life, huh?

And oh no, OMG, for the first time since the pandemic I got sick this week! I have a runny nose and nothing else. "Call the doctor, call the nurse, call the lady with the alligator purse." Here's an even bigger laugh - - I got it from Frank, not from going maskless in public. So I would have caught it anyway. Oh well. No matter how I got it, I am glad I finally caught something (minor). And I am glad it was minor. I want some exposure to the lesser germs-du-jour to strengthen my immunity a little. I suppose it might be undiagnosed allergies, hopefully not. But in the interest of not giving a runny nose to half of Louisiana, I haven't gone any place all week since I first detected that I was sick.

I'm about over the sniffles by now, thank goodness, and by tomorrow they'll be history.

 

[Ronstar]

I can’t remember the last time that I wore a mask. Everywhere I go now has the no mask required if vaccinated rule. I don’t expect that I’ll be wearing one until my next plane flight or doctor appointment.

We are going to dinner with unvaccinated people twice in the next 10 days. I doubt they will be wearing masks either.

 

[braumeister]

I can’t remember the last time that I wore a mask. Everywhere I go now has the no mask required if vaccinated rule. I don’t expect that I’ll be wearing one until my next plane flight or doctor appointment.

It's not fun. On our trip back from Alaska two weeks ago we had some flight delays, so over 20 consecutive hours wearing masks (planes and airports). That got old in a hurry. They watch you closely, so it was drop the mask to take a bite of food or sip of a drink, then immediately put the mask back up again.

In my county, almost nobody wears a mask anymore, so it was a huge relief to get home.

 

[Ronstar]

It's not fun. On our trip back from Alaska two weeks ago we had some flight delays, so over 20 consecutive hours wearing masks (planes and airports). That got old in a hurry. They watch you closely, so it was drop the mask to take a bite of food or sip of a drink, then immediately put the mask back up again.

In my county, almost nobody wear a mask anymore, so it was a huge relief to get home.

Thanks for the reminder. We leave for Alaska in 3 weeks, so we'll be prepared for mega masking.

 

[timo2]

It's not fun. On our trip back from Alaska two weeks ago we had some flight delays, so over 20 consecutive hours wearing masks (planes and airports). That got old in a hurry. They watch you closely, so it was drop the mask to take a bite of food or sip of a drink, then immediately put the mask back up again.

In my county, almost nobody wear a mask anymore, so it was a huge relief to get home.

I've seen masks that are now being marketed specifically for travel. The claims are usually more comfortable and/or better filters for the wearer's protection.

 

[W2R]

I can’t remember the last time that I wore a mask. Everywhere I go now has the no mask required if vaccinated rule. I don’t expect that I’ll be wearing one until my next plane flight or doctor appointment.

We are going to dinner with unvaccinated people twice in the next 10 days. I doubt they will be wearing masks either.

Only 38% of Louisianians have been vaccinated, and almost none of us are wearing masks any more whether vaccinated or not. I'm not.

I actually DID see one person wearing a mask today, the chef at the restaurant where we had lunch. I asked F if we shouldn't put a mask on (because we don't like to upset others), and he said no, that probably the chef had a cold and didn't want to sneeze on our food. None of the wait staff was masked, and they were 3 feet away from the chef as opposed to our ~50 feet away. So I didn't get out a mask.

 

[Teacher Terry]

Here if you aren’t vaccinated you are supposed to wear a mask. I don’t see many people wearing them. However, businesses are making non-vaccinated employees wear them.

 

[Alan]

The infection rate in our area is 270/100,000, the city next to us is over 400/100,000. 7 day average for the UK is almost 25k infections/day, the highest since January.

However, the vast majority of cases are among the young, 12 - 24 and the vaccination rate among adults is 85% with at least 1 dose and over 60% with 2 doses so the rate of hospitalization is still very low. Consequently the PM will say today that the next stage of unlocking, including no limits on big events and no mandatory masks in shops and restaurants will likely go ahead on the 19th July, by which time all adults will have have the opportunity to be vaccinated at least with the first dose.

 

[audreyh1]

Wow, those are high infection rates!!!

Makes US look tiny. US overall has an average new daily cases infection rate of around 13,000 for a population almost 5 times larger. Scaled down proportionally it would be 2,670.

I remember about a month ago Spain was opening up areas when infection rates dropped below 50 per 100,000 average new cases per day. At the time I was surprised because many US states were below 5, and most states were already open.

With Delta those with only one dose really have to be careful.

 

[Alan]

Wow, those are high infection rates!!!

Makes US look tiny. US overall has an average new daily cases infection rate of around 13,000 for a population almost 5 times larger. Scaled down proportionally it would be 2,670.

I remember about a month ago Spain was opening up areas when infection rates dropped below 50 per 100,000 average new cases per day. At the time I was surprised because many US states were below 5, and most states were already open.

With Delta those with only one dose really have to be careful.

The reason the hospital admissions are continuing to be so low is that the vast majority of over 40's are fully vaccinated and those folks showing up mostly have few or no symptoms or are getting a mild case of Covid from which they recover at home.

School age children and students at colleges are taking 2 tests a week so along with all the other tests is resulting in about 900,000 tests per day so a lot of infections in the young are being picked up that were being missed before the schools opened up a couple of months ago.

 

[braumeister]

The reason the hospital admissions are continuing to be so low is that the vast majority of over 40's are fully vaccinated and those folks showing up mostly have few or no symptoms or are getting a mild case of Covid from which they recover at home.

School age children and students at colleges are taking 2 tests a week so along with all the other tests is resulting in about 900,000 tests per day so a lot of infections in the young are being picked up that were being missed before the schools opened up a couple of months ago.

Thanks for that explanation. Clears up my confusion on this.

 

[audreyh1]

The reason the hospital admissions are continuing to be so low is that the vast majority of over 40's are fully vaccinated and those folks showing up mostly have few or no symptoms or are getting a mild case of Covid from which they recover at home.

School age children and students at colleges are taking 2 tests a week so along with all the other tests is resulting in about 900,000 tests per day so a lot of infections in the young are being picked up that were being missed before the schools opened up a couple of months ago.

Deaths are continuing to drop here too, even though infection rates stalled and have started to climb again.

You probably are picking up way more infections that we are. The US testing rate hasn’t dropped as fast as the infections, so we are testing as least as much as we ever have, but obviously not nearly as much as some countries.

 

[Alan]

The at-home test kits are free and extremely easy to pick up from any pharmacy or online. They come in boxes of 7, just small enough to go through the letterbox.

Having had 2 weeks in Devon and Cornwall spending lots of time indoors in cafes, museums and on buses I have tested myself a couple of times since returning.

The scientists and health professionals here are now saying that the vaccines have definitely weakened the link between infections and serious illness to a level manageable by the healthcare system.

 

[Another Reader]

Even mild cases have at least a 10 percent chance of turning into Long Covid. Children with mild cases can get Long Covid, the worst result being MIS-C. The evidence suggests that Long Covid results from persistent virus in some form. Currently. there are no treatments for persistent virus, although over here, there is now a push for rapid development of antiviral drugs.

As we know, Covid is a rapidly mutating virus. Persistence means viral reservoirs, which are cauldrons of mutating virus. Successful mutations will be immune and vaccine escapees. We have already seen an early example of the result, what was originally called the British variant. We have whole countries failing to contain their outbreaks or vaccinate and have only made weak attempts to isolate their residents from us. Approximately 20 percent of people in the US are immune compromised and a significant number of those people will not make antibodies from the vaccine. And then there are the Long Covid patients, many of whom are reservoirs of mutating virus. Estimates in the US are three to five million people with some level of disease burden.

My guess is the reopening will not be successful. This is not the flu and likely it's not something we will just have to learn to live with.

 

[sengsational]

The at-home test kits are free and extremely easy to pick up from any pharmacy or online. They come in boxes of 7, just small enough to go through the letterbox.

That's a smart move. I'm surprised that's been done because it seems there has been so much resistance to testing that didn't involve 'the authorities'. But even in the US we have no Rx, no lab (true at-home rapid) tests. Still gouging on price now, but the FDA is loosing their footing on preventing other tests from coming to market, so competition might help.

 

[tmm99]

The infection rate in our area is 270/100,000, the city next to us is over 400/100,000.

That's not per day... is it?

 

[Alan]

That's not per day... is it?

That is per week, I should have been clearer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Coronavirus across the UK

Tap or click to see how many cases per 100,000 in the latest week

As you can see from the map, some areas, in red, have over 400 cases a week per 100,000.

 

[audreyh1]

The at-home test kits are free and extremely easy to pick up from any pharmacy or online. They come in boxes of 7, just small enough to go through the letterbox.

Having had 2 weeks in Devon and Cornwall spending lots of time indoors in cafes, museums and on buses I have tested myself a couple of times since returning.

The scientists and health professionals here are now saying that the vaccines have definitely weakened the link between infections and serious illness to a level manageable by the healthcare system.

I wish at home tests were free here!

Great news about the healthcare system no longer challenged.

 

[audreyh1]

That is per week, I should have been clearer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274




As you can see from the map, some areas, in red, have over 400 cases a week per 100,000.

Oh, huge difference! The US numbers are average new cases per day using a 7 day average.

Your countrywide 25,000 new cases was a daily number base on 7 day average.

 

[Alan]

Great news about the healthcare system no longer challenged.

Now they have a huge backlog of surgeries to catch up on.

 

[tmm99]

That is per week, I should have been clearer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274




As you can see from the map, some areas, in red, have over 400 cases a week per 100,000.

Thank you, Alan. Even with that, still a very high number IMO (though it's great that the death rate is very low.) Our region has the highest infection rate per capita in the whole province of Ontario, Canada, and people are freaking out, but our numbers are much, much lower than that.

Not many people have received their second shots here due to supply issues in earlier stages, but they're speeding up the process as the supply has increased. In fact, I received my 2nd shot yesterday, 11.5 weeks from my first shot (both Pfizer.) My initial scheduled interval was 16 weeks, but as the supply increased, we could get our 2nd shot sooner, so I rescheduled mine. I feel relieved... They're mixing Pfizer and Moderna as needed (supply-related). I'm sure they reviewed the mix-and-match UK studies and decided to do this.

 

[Chuckanut]

My state has now "opened up" and we still have a large number of people who for whatever reason are not vaccinated and probably won't get vaccinated until someone close to them suffers and/or dies. (Thank you Governor Justice for telling the harsh truth.) Therefore, I expect a bump up in Covid cases starting later this month. Though I live in an area with 70%+ vaccination of adults over 18, about 60% of the people I see in stores, the library, etc. are still wearing masks. I assume these mask wearers are NOT those who don't want the vaccine, since they also did not want to wear a mask. So, I expect the bump up in Covid cases.

Dr. Gottlieb made a few more interesting comments regarding corona virus this weekend on what was his 68th (??) appearance on Face the Nation since this mess started. Most interesting was his reminder that we will be facing the flu virus and the corona virus together from now on. This is a potentially more deadly combo. While obvious, I had not thought of it. We will be getting tag-teamed by two viruses from now on.

He went on to opine that we should no longer continue to accept the flu death toll each year, and work to harder to keep regular flu and corona virus at bay. Things like booster shots for both viruses, mask wearing, sending people home from work who are sick, and better ventilation will be needed on an ongoing basis. Since doing these things fights both the flu and corona virus - we get a twofer.

Finally, while the data is not fully in, he thinks higher risk people may need a booster shot for the corona virus this year or next. People with immune issues, people over 65, etc. It will be a few months before they can confirm this. Overall, immunity from getting exposed to the virus is not proving to be as strong as immunity from the vaccines. Again, that will be answered more definitively in the next few months.

So, if you are vaccinated, go out and enjoy a more normal life with a few extra precautions, avoid exposure to sick people, plan on a possible Covid booster shot at some point, get a seasonal flu shot, and don't toss those left over masks. That's how I understand it.