Corona Virus, Covid and the future

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Alan, how is it that the UK can get so many vaccinated? In some areas of the US
we can't get people to come in and get vaccines even by offering million dollar lotteries. What is the UK's secret?

IMHO, the lotteries are a joke. They are a way for the politicians to appear to be doing something about the vaccine hesitant, when they really don't have a clue what to do. The guy who won $250,000 last week in my state did not even know about the lottery and that he was automatically in it. Surprise! Here's a quarter million dollars (less taxes of course).

Sadly, I must agree with the Guv in West Virginia - many will come around when somebody they know suffers greatly and/or dies.
 
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IMHO, the lotteries are a joke. They are a way for the politicians to appear to be doing something about the vaccine hesitant, when they really don't have a clue what to do. The guy who won $250,000 last week in my state did not even know about the lottery and that he was automatically in it. Surprise! Here's a quarter million dollars (less taxes of course).

Sadly, I must agree with the Guv in West Virginia - many will come around when somebody they know suffers greatly and/or dies.

Agree with the last comment, plus the culture issue plays heavily into the picture. Just look at the states by state and intra state stats.
 
Yes, either we believe in the vaccine and its efficacy, or we don't.
I believe in the vaccine. The question is what is that efficacy? The Israel data is showing 64% prevention. That's not fantastic. Pfizer is seeing waning immunity after 6 months. I was vaccinated in December so that's a concern.


I'm an urgent care physician. I'm seeing a lot of my colleagues reporting positive COVID cases in fully vaccinated patients. I've seen a few myself. Early on we were hearing 95+% efficacy, but it was really too soon to know. Now that we've been vaccinating for 7 months or so, we're starting to see more realistic data emerge.
 
I probably shouldn't bring this up, but I'm truly curious why some folks are so resistant to vaccination. I just spoke with a good friend of many years who lives in Europe. He has free access to vaccination and hasn't "made up his mind" yet. I put in a "plug" for vaccination (it didn't hurt, arm wasn't sore, didn't grow horns, didn't set off metal detectors, etc. etc.)

I can sort of understand folks "waiting" for a few weeks - even a few months to see if "first adopters" began having "issues." But, with a few very rare exceptions, that hasn't happened. While it's clear that NO vaccine absolutely guarantees that one will not get the disease, all the current vaccines seem relatively effective - especially in preventing death and hospitalization.

I've read some "fringe" stuff about vaccinations, but I'd like to think most folks are more intelligent than to buy every conspiracy theory on the net. So, what IS it with Covid vaccination? Hey, it's free, it's practically painless, it's "safe", it works. What's not to like? YMMV
 
It’s quite disappointing to see that US cases have risen 35% over the past two weeks.

And hospitalizations have remained unchanged rather than dropping.

The good news is that deaths have dropped 40% over the same two week period. Deaths have been slower to come down compared to cases and hospitalizations, but the past month they have dropped off substantially.

I've noticed that the deaths tend to lag hospitalizations by about 4 to 6 weeks, so I expect we'll see an increase around the end of this month. Hopefully not 35% though.

I was really happy to see this the other day https://www.kpbs.org/news/2021/jul/07/unvaccinated-san-diegans-covid-cases-deaths/
Data released Wednesday from the county Health and Human Services Agency shows that since Jan. 1, COVID-19 has nearly exclusively occurred among residents who are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. They represent 99.8% of deaths, 99.88% of hospitalizations and 99.1% of cases.
...
Since Jan. 1, a total of 1,219 COVID-19 deaths have been reported in the region but only three were county residents who had been fully vaccinated. Of the 5,159 hospitalizations that have occurred during the same period, only 10 were in people who were fully immunized. Of 106,000 COVID-19 cases reported since the beginning of this year, only about 1,000 were among county residents who were fully vaccinated.

This is a county of 3.3M people and we're currently at 79% of people over age 12 having at least one dose.
 
I'd like to think that as well, but real-world observations suggest otherwise.

That’s what I’ve learned this past year, unfortunately. To my shock and horror.

Sometimes it just seems like grabbing any excuse to hesitate or delay.
 
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I've noticed that the deaths tend to lag hospitalizations by about 4 to 6 weeks, so I expect we'll see an increase around the end of this month. Hopefully not 35% though.
I think this time it will be different. The unvaccinated are overall younger, plus children not yet eligible. The oldest folks are generally highly vaccinated, although there are areas where this is not true.(Congrats to my county for having 82% of 65+ fully vaccinated!)

I do think it’s possible to have large outbreak with a dampened overall death rate increase.

We shall see, won’t we.
 
I suspect that a relatively large fraction of the unvaccinated already had COVID-19. I searched and none of the surveys seem to even ask that, preferring to survey political affiliation, race, gender, urban/rural, etc. among the unvaccinated. More clicks that way I guess. See https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-cov...-vaccine-monitor-profile-of-the-unvaccinated/

Anyway, not data but I have three relatives that are procrastinating because they've already been infected with confirmed COVID-19.
 
I suspect that a relatively large fraction of the unvaccinated already had COVID-19. I searched and none of the surveys seem to even ask that, preferring to survey political affiliation, race, gender, urban/rural, etc. among the unvaccinated. More clicks that way I guess. See https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-cov...-vaccine-monitor-profile-of-the-unvaccinated/

Anyway, not data but I have three relatives that are procrastinating because they've already been infected with confirmed COVID-19.

But why is that? Everything I have read says that you get more immunity with the vaccine than being infected. The vaccine is free, readily available, the side effects are minimal so why would someone who has been infected not want the vaccine too?
 
I believe that the US Surgeon General summed up the issue/risk of vaccination/no vaccination very well. Especially as it pertains to the D variant.

It is up to people to arrive at their own decision. Hopefully with relevant, accurate information.
 
Antibodies in the latest survey of the population in the UK are also extremely high which also gives expectations that the current very high infections should not result in overwhelming hospitalizations. This is from vaccinations and having had Covid.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...yantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/7july2021

In England, it is estimated that around 9 in 10 adults, or 89.8% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 88.2% to 91.3%) would have tested positive for antibodies against coronavirus (COVID-19) - SARS-CoV-2 - on a blood test in the week beginning 14 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

In Wales, it is estimated that 9 in 10 adults, or 91.8% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 90.1% to 93.3%) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in the week beginning 14 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

In Northern Ireland, it is estimated that close to 9 in 10 adults, or 87.2% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 84.2% to 90.2%) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in the week beginning 14 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

In Scotland, it is estimated that over 8 in 10 adults, or 84.7% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 82.4% to 86.9%) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in the week beginning 14 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

Across all four countries of the UK, there is a clear pattern between vaccination and testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies but the detection of antibodies alone is not a precise measure of the immunity protection given by vaccination.
 
A friend of mine sent me this link today...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210629144312.htm

Using real-time deformability cytometry, researchers at the Max-Planck-Zentrum für Physik und Medizin in Erlangen were able to show for the first time: Covid-19 significantly changes the size and stiffness of red and white blood cells -- sometimes over months. These results may help to explain why some affected people continue to complain of symptoms long after an infection (long Covid).

More reasons to get vaccinated, than not.
 
More people masking

Recent to trip to Walmart. Noticed a sharp increase in people wearing masks. 8 of first 10 people I saw were masked. I'd guess overall was 70 percent.

Not sure if others seeing the same.
 
I suspect that a relatively large fraction of the unvaccinated already had COVID-19.

Yes, I imagine that too, but then the "herd-immunity" and actual number of those who had it can't be terribly high, or we wouldn't have corresponding hot spots in the low-vaxx areas.

I certainly see a large overlap between those who ignored the severity/guidelines/masks, etc., and now also don't want to get the vaccine. But I think perhaps the "eh, I probably already had it so I don't need to get a jab" crowd is overly confident in some regions, and being proven wrong.
 
My late cousin's 55+ community just sent out an email to alert us that 2 residents, husband and wife, have come down with COVID. They have both been fully vaccinated. Contact tracing is underway. Both are active in the community, have eaten in the cafe, used the pool, etc.


We're going to hear more and more of these stories, especially if the 64% figure out of Israel is accurate. Lots of vaccinated people are going to get COVID.


Yes, I'm wearing a mask in public indoor places. I had stopped briefly but I'm back to it.
 
the "herd-immunity" and actual number of those who had it can't be terribly high, or we wouldn't have corresponding hot spots in the low-vaxx areas.
Exactly. The data is crystal clear about where the outbreaks are occurring and correlation with vaccination rates in those areas.
 
Yes, I'm wearing a mask in public indoor places. I had stopped briefly but I'm back to it.

This week at the Downing Street briefing on unlocking on July 19 when mask wearing will no longer be mandatory in England the CMO, Prof Chris Witty, was asked if and when he would be wearing a mask and he stated that there would 3 instances when he would continue wearing a mask.

In public indoor places such as trains and buses.

When premises required it. (Businesses may still require it and it is likely care homes, hospitals and other healthcare settings will require it).

When it will be courteous to do so, so as not offend those around him
 
That's a smart move. I'm surprised that's been done because it seems there has been so much resistance to testing that didn't involve 'the authorities'. But even in the US we have no Rx, no lab (true at-home rapid) tests. Still gouging on price now, but the FDA is loosing their footing on preventing other tests from coming to market, so competition might help.


I was able to order bionaxNOW through emed.com for my son's upcoming trip to/from Europe. These are at-home tests - that you do while tele-health video conference with a technician... which makes it legit for air travel to places that require it (hello transit through Heathrow) and re-entry to the US.

Not cheap... but they are out there.
https://www.emed.com/products/covid-at-home-testkit-six-pack?hsLang=en
 
I had seen a big drop off in masking in public in June... This morning when I went to costco it was about 70% mask wearers. Including most of the employees.
 
Malta has 80% of adults vaccinated but has seen a spike in infections including 3 in hospital, all unvaccinated. From Wednesday they are changing their travel policy to only allowing fully vaccinated people to enter. Currently it is only UK visitors that are required to be fully vaccinated but they are extending the rules to everyone.
 
Malta has 80% of adults vaccinated but has seen a spike in infections including 3 in hospital, all unvaccinated. From Wednesday they are changing their travel policy to only allowing fully vaccinated people to enter. Currently it is only UK visitors that are required to be fully vaccinated but they are extending the rules to everyone.

Pardon what became a very long post...

I live the UK as well. The UK government has been a hot mess at times during this pandemic, but they get an A+ on the vaccination effort and I'm largely in agreement with their move to press ahead with the re-opening. (As an expat, I have selfish reasons to cheer for their decision to eliminate quarantine for vaccinated travelers to "amber" countries.)

If it isn't the right time to try and move forward when almost everyone over 40 is vaccinated, with the overall vaccination rate racing towards 100%, deaths are small and not rising substanitally, when is?

We are NOT going to kill covid out of society. It is here to stay. In fact, successful vaccination efforts will only accelerate variant production because the virus will work to evade the vaccines. Delta will be followed by Epsilon and Gamma. And the Delta variant IS going to rip through the US. No stopping it.

The production of variants that can make a vaccinated person unwell for a while but don't meaningfully contribute to deaths is not a reason to keep society closed in perpetuity. This thing isn't quite the flu (yet) but in a well vaccinated population, its also not ebola and its not polio.

The ultimate bar has to be aggregate effect on health and the healthcare system. You may recall that DW was in critical care with the NHS when it was being ravaged by Covid. I'm very alive to the risks of an overwhelmed healtchare system -- but that is not where we are. To the contrary, what risks overwhelming the NHS now is all of the people who haven't been getting care for anything except Covid.

The other reality is that many Covid restrictions are turning into Covid theater.

Most people have long since blown off the NHS app because the restrictions are silly draconian if you follow them. I once got a notification to isolate because I might have been in a mall with someone who had covid. The isolation notice meant I should pull my daughter out of school for 10 days. Insanity. I was definitely in a mall with someone who had Covid...but it almost certainly was someone else who wasn't using the app. Same thing for masks in airports and on regional trains. Its just driving coffee sales...amazingly everyone is drinking coffee all the time to keep their masks off. But finding a seat on an airport shuttle bus is like playing frogger to get around all of the seats that are taped off to enforce distancing. People wind up standing next to each other. Complete theater.

I was in Scotland two weeks ago where the restrictions are supposedly more severe than England. It was like Marti Gras in New Orleans. Only the Scottish rules told everyone to change bars every two hours and then the 11p mandatory shutdown forced 100% of them onto the streets at the same time.

The only thing I think they're really getting wrong is that they haven't authorized people under 18 to get the vaccination. There is a legitimate long covid risk in that population. The US has gotten on with it below the 18 year olds, UK should do the same.

My $0.02.
 
Ugh, average daily new cases are up 52% over the past two weeks in the US.

Hospitalizations have also increased by 4%.

Deaths continue to drop - down 28%.
 
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