Coronavirus - Financial, Health and Other impacts II

[audreyh1]

Oh..Okay. Here I was thinking to look out mainly for those where are symptomatic.

I guess that's why without the tests, we are flying blind.

Yes, unfortunately we also had several symptomatic cases two weeks ago where a patient ended up at a hospital with classic COVID-19 symptoms, verified it wasn't influenza, but they couldn't get the patient tested for COVID-19. Various roadblocks - patient hadn't traveled out of country, or patient had not been in China (one had been in Japan), or patient wasn't "sick enough". And CDC denied doctors requests to test them. Some of them were tested much later and shown to be positive.

 

[audreyh1]

Even if someone tests negative today they could likely test positive tomorrow.....I presume.

Yes, this happened with passengers on the Diamond Princess and reportedly in China.

 

[USGrant1962]

I have a Masters in Engineering, so I am also a master at making numbers show what I want them to.

Statistics can be manipulated (as you have) by exclusion of inputs to show whatever you want.

Ah yes, How to Lie with Statistics. The only thing I really grokked from college stats class:

https://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Stat...=books&sprefix=how+to+lie+with,aps,133&sr=1-2

 

[Closet_Gamer]

Below is the drop in sales in Washington state according to one credit card processing company. Note the drop in liquor store sales.

View attachment 34115

I love the resilience of the bowling community!

Everyone else is running for cover and the bowling people are hanging in there.

"I wipe the ball with a cloth every time and the lane next to me is like 3 feet away...let's roll!"

That's fantastic.

 

[Chuckanut]

The Law of Unintended Consequences strikes again!

Schools in my area are closed for weeks. The reason is simple. While youngsters don't seem to be badly affected by the CV19, they might pass it on to their highly vulnerable grandparents. So, with the schools closed, mom and dad are now desperately in need of childcare. They have to pay the rent, buy food, etc. no matter what. Finding somebody to watch the kids when the entire school district is closed for weeks is near impossible. So, who do they call to watch the kids no longer in school. You got it! The grand parents.

 

[Nemo2]

You got it! The grand parents.

"I luvs me some unintended consequences!"

 

[Fermion]

Does this total shutdown of everything seem a bit crazy?

Our country's immune system is in a cytokine storm.

This is damaging the lives of healthy people who do not have a lot of spare room in their budget like we do on here. We fret because we cannot go skiing on schedule or have to cancel a cruise or flight to Europe but there are a lot of people who are getting really financially hurt by all of these closures.

 

[REWahoo]

Does this total shutdown of everything seem a bit crazy?

Maybe not so crazy when viewed from the "flatten the curve" perspective.

 

[MichaelB]

It’s not a “total shutdown of everything”. Business is still open. This seems to be affecting activities that are discretionary and non-essential.

Does this total shutdown of everything seem a bit crazy?

Our country's immune system is in a cytokine storm.

This is damaging the lives of healthy people who do not have a lot of spare room in their budget like we do on here. We fret because we cannot go skiing on schedule or have to cancel a cruise or flight to Europe but there are a lot of people who are getting really financially hurt by all of these closures.

 

[Fermion]

Schools, restaurants, libraries, offices, movie theaters, travel, non grocery stores, some city and state offices.

It is a shocking amount. In early Feb when I thought it would get bad and was wary, I was just thinking about corporate earnings taking a ding in late March or April. I was not thinking about this level of shutdown.

They are saying the peak might be in June. Does that mean we would need to stay in shutdown mode until then or July?

 

[Sunset]

Does this total shutdown of everything seem a bit crazy?

...

Currently the infection rate for serious enough cases to get counted is 9.3 per million in the USA.
This rate means approximately 30 Million people will be seriously affected.
If we don't slow the spread, and the 30 Million get it within 2 years, that would overwhelm our healthcare system with 15 Million people per year.

We would be like Italy, and be unable to treat many people, leading to high death rates.

It will be interesting to watch the UK, where they are going the opposite way and wanting everyone to get infected and get it over with. No cancellation of events. Of course their PM did tell everyone "You will lose loved ones".

 

[Fermion]

It really seems like we could retrofit existing structures into hospitals in each major city. We have a vast amount of hotels in this country which could be turned into emergency wards. I look at some hotels and they have 400 to 500 rooms. The beds are already there, bathroom facilities in each room so you can have isolation.

 

[REWahoo]

It really seems like we could retrofit existing structures into hospitals in each major city. We have a vast amount of hotels in this country which could be turned into emergency wards. I look at some hotels and they have 400 to 500 rooms. The beds are already there, bathroom facilities in each room so you can have isolation.

While that may be true, where do you find the medical personnel to staff all those improvised hospitals?

 

[MichaelB]

Schools, restaurants, libraries, offices, movie theaters, travel, non grocery stores, some city and state offices.

It is a shocking amount. In early Feb when I thought it would get bad and was wary, I was just thinking about corporate earnings taking a ding in late March or April. I was not thinking about this level of shutdown.

They are saying the peak might be in June. Does that mean we would need to stay in shutdown mode until then or July?

This may happen, but so far, movie theaters, restaurants and most offices are open. Banks are open. Salaried employees are being paid. Lots of people are still traveling.

I think self employed people, hourly workers and gig economy are suffering.

 

[Gremlin]

It’s about the staff and equipment

It really seems like we could retrofit existing structures into hospitals in each major city. We have a vast amount of hotels in this country which could be turned into emergency wards. I look at some hotels and they have 400 to 500 rooms. The beds are already there, bathroom facilities in each room so you can have isolation.

We cannot wave a magic wand to create more doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists to staff these emergency hospitals. Nor the equipment such as 02 tanks etc.

 

[Fermion]

While that may be true, where do you find the medical personnel to staff all those improvised hospitals?

It is a good question. I think someone linked a story that the UK was ramping up production of ventilators and instituting training programs so more people would know how to administer them. Do we have time to implement some really basic nursing training? This is starting to feel like war time in the way we possibly could react to the crisis and in war time, normal way of doing things goes out the window. Maybe you don't *have* to go to school for 2 years to be able to operate a ventilator for someone who is sick.

 

[Nemo2]

..where do you find the medical personnel to staff all those improvised hospitals?

And doctors/nurses/support personnel are not automatons - many/most are likely going to undergo the highest level of job related stress they've ever faced.

Tired, stressed, people are prone to errors.

 

[Chuckanut]

We cannot wave a magic wand to create more doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists to staff these emergency hospitals. Nor the equipment such as 02 tanks etc.

By closing schools for weeks, and not providing child care options for doctors, nurses, med techs, etc. who are needed right now, we are effectively waving a magic wand to make the people we will need disappear for a few weeks.

 

[Fermion]

So what is better? Having someone in a tent in a parking lot outside the hospital or dying at home, or having someone being treated in a hotel by quickly trained personnel and overseen by deeper trained personnel?

It also might be a case where the military could step in a bit, I am not sure.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

By closing schools for weeks, and not providing child care options for doctors, nurses, med techs, etc. who are needed right now, we are effectively waving a magic wand to make the people we will need disappear for a few weeks.

Trust me, doctors and nurses are familiar with disaster plans and drills, they won't disappear. Lab techs, med techs, orderlies, and transporters are more of a concern, but it's better to have those problems than to have many or most of those workers sick and unable to come in to work anyway.

 

[Sunset]

It really seems like we could retrofit existing structures into hospitals in each major city. We have a vast amount of hotels in this country which could be turned into emergency wards. I look at some hotels and they have 400 to 500 rooms. The beds are already there, bathroom facilities in each room so you can have isolation.

I think it's a good idea, Washington state bought a hotel to do this.

Beyond the issue of staffing and equipment, one would have to carefully pick the hotel based on many factors including the air circulation system (in case that turns out to be a factor in cruise ship infection rates).

Of course, since USA, didn't even get test kits ready with weeks of notice, something bigger like buying hotels in every major city (even using imminent domain laws) would never get done.

 

[Fermion]

Of course, since USA, didn't even get test kits ready with weeks of notice, something bigger like buying hotels in every major city (even using imminent domain laws) would never get done.

We as a country do seem a bit sluggish now huh?

Gosh, the Manhattan project would take 25 years if it was started today.

 

[GenXguy]

It really seems like we could retrofit existing structures into hospitals in each major city. We have a vast amount of hotels in this country which could be turned into emergency wards. I look at some hotels and they have 400 to 500 rooms. The beds are already there, bathroom facilities in each room so you can have isolation.

You're behind the curve. I know hospitals are already planning those types of alternatives to handle a high number of patients, and that includes those in smaller cities, not just major cities.

There are not enough ventilators, either, and then there's the issue of not enough health care workers, and remember, many of them will end up getting COVID-19 also, despite the precautions taken, because it spreads so easily.

Slowing the spread by closing things down will help prevent things in this country from becoming like Italy, where they are picking and choosing who to put on the ventilators while leaving others gasping for air.

I have seen movies theaters shutdown partially. The governor is hinting at closing restaurants and bars. Classes are canceled at the University, apparently moving to online, casinos closed, churches are closing, nursing home visits not allowed. Hopefully this helps. A little financial distress and an economic hit beats an overwhelming caseload of COVID-19.

 

[MichaelB]

We as a country do seem a bit sluggish now huh?

Gosh, the Manhattan project would take 25 years if it was started today.

In my opinion, our government is quite capable and can execute projects amazingly well. It (we) takes a long time to decide to get involved, and there is the real delay factor. We will see how that affects the current crisis.

 

[Gremlin]

You're behind the curve. I know hospitals are already planning those types of alternatives to handle a high number of patients, and that includes those in smaller cities, not just major cities.

There are not enough ventilators, either, and then there's the issue of not enough health care workers, and remember, many of them will end up getting COVID-19 also, despite the precautions taken, because it spreads so easily.

Slowing the spread by closing things down will help prevent things in this country from becoming like Italy, where they are picking and choosing who to put on the ventilators while leaving others gasping for air.

I have seen movies theaters shutdown partially. The governor is hinting at closing restaurants and bars. Classes are canceled at the University, apparently moving to online, churches are closing. Hopefully this helps. A little financial distress and an economic hit beats an overwhelming caseload of COVID-19.

+1000
Thank you. As a pediatric hospitalist who deals with the onslaught of ill children every Flu and RSV season, I have 20 years of front line experience caring for critically ill patients on ventilators and instituting emergency plans when the system gets overwhelmed (this happened to our hospital in February when our rate of RSV went through the roof and we were running out of pediatric ICU beds in the state of Alaska.) You cannot simply "speed up" the process of training respiratory therapists as suggested above as time/experience is probably your greatest teacher. And yes, the military would step in to help out with staffing, if it were to become necessary.

I understand people's frustrations/concerns including how to care for kids when schools are shut down. I don't have a good answer for that. But I DO know that flattening this curve is essential. It is even more imperative given the statistics out of China, where 15% of health care workers developed serious illness, REGARDLESS of age/health condition.