Coronavirus - Health and preparedness aspects - II

[Sunny]

When are you going to curtail your activities? I’m asking as I’m having a hard time thinking it’d be premature where we live in the middle of the country to do so now...I was going to wait until a few more Seattles happened.

Yet this article https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/health/coronavirus-older-people-social-distancing/index.html points to experts saying those over 60 and people with underlying conditions should start social distancing now.

And sure enough, the CDC website says to stay at home as much as possible now for those groups: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...gh-risk-complications.html#who-is-higher-risk

Trying to wrap my head around doing that now, but I guess most of what we do out is elective...restaurants 5 or so times a week, gym 3x a week, and my wife’s fun job at a candy store.

So what metric will you use to determine when you stay home most of the time?

 

[daylatedollarshort]

SXSW in Austin has been cancelled.

Locally, we're being advised 50+ should not attend parades, concerts and sporting events. I'm okay with skipping parades and sporting events. but the concerts - that one hurts. We used to do that pretty often.

The theater groups here are starting to send out notices that they have sanitizers and are performing extra cleanings but so far the show must go on. Many of the audiences for the regional playhouses tend to be an older crowd so I wonder what the health advisories will do to attendance at live theater performances.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

So what metric will you use to determine when you stay home most of the time?

I've been making a list of what can we still do to get out of the house - parks, gardens, hike trails, the beach, and picnics. We've still been going shopping but limited runs and in the off hours. Otherwise we will probably follow the latest advice from the CDC for now -

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/health/coronavirus-older-people-social-distancing/index.html

"The CDC guidance comes as two top infectious disease experts with ties to the federal government have advised people over 60 and those with underlying health problems to strongly consider avoiding activities that involve large crowds.

Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University professor and longtime adviser to the CDC, said these two groups should consider avoiding activities such as traveling by airplane, going to movie theaters, attending family events, shopping at crowded malls, and going to religious services."

 

[W2R]

When are you going to curtail your activities? I’m asking as I’m having a hard time thinking it’d be premature where we live in the middle of the country to do so now...I was going to wait until a few more Seattles happened.

Yet this article https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/health/coronavirus-older-people-social-distancing/index.html points to experts saying those over 60 and people with underlying conditions should start social distancing now.

And sure enough, the CDC website says to stay at home as much as possible now for those groups: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...gh-risk-complications.html#who-is-higher-risk

Trying to wrap my head around doing that now, but I guess most of what we do out is elective...restaurants 5 or so times a week, gym 3x a week, and my wife’s fun job at a candy store.

So what metric will you use to determine when you stay home most of the time?

That's a very hard question to answer! Both my sweetie and I are in those categories. What we do out of the house is nearly identical to what you do.

There are no confirmed coronavirus cases in our state. But, some appeared in Houston, which is about 300 miles away. Eek.

Here are my thoughts about it right at this moment: Honestly I'd be perfectly happy staying at home and not going out to lunch or the gym, because a brand new video game is being released in a couple of weeks, that I can hardly wait to play. That would keep me happy and busy at home for a long time. Honestly, I am thinking of waiting for a week or so and then talking it over with Frank. He has a lot of common sense and maybe I am too much of a scaredy-cat. If I was alone I'd start staying home more immediately, but I think this kind of decision needs to be discussed and agreed on by both of us.

 

[Sunny]

That's a very hard question to answer! Both my sweetie and I are in those categories. What we do out of the house is nearly identical to what you do.

...., because a brand new video game is being released in a couple of weeks, that I can hardly wait to play. .......

... I think this kind of decision needs to be discussed and agreed on by both of us.

Completely agree it is something to talk over with those you live with and get on the same page. We are feeling like “are you kidding me? So soon?” Yet the language is pretty strong too.

But do tell....what new video game is coming out that you are waiting for? We so need a new one too!

 

[W2R]

Completely agree it is something to talk over with those you live with and get on the same page. We are feeling like “are you kidding me? So soon?” Yet the language is pretty strong too.

But do tell....what new video game is coming out that you are waiting for? We so need a new one too!

Oh, it's kind of a kiddie game, Animal Crossing New Horizons. I utterly adore Animal Crossing games for some reason. They are so gentle, peaceful, and happy. But if you want more of a battle, Doom Eternal is being released by Nintendo on the same day (March 20th). I used to play that kind of game but as I grow older, I like the gentler games more.

 

[NW-Reader]

So, I've been reading various articles in areas with outbreaks. This one caught my attention:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1236017803162873856

Hello from Seattle! UW just got authorization to begin using their test on Tuesday. So they are ramping up. https://www.geekwire.com/2020/uw-me...00-tests-coronavirus-far-can-handle-1000-day/

In the past day there have been positive tests from two locations less than a mile from our home. We have plenty of food (and tp!) and I still went to my volunteer shift at the cat shelter today, although we only had one adopter come in. But we are diligently washing hands, and not planning on going anywhere with crowds, or people older than we are. I'm more worried about possibly infecting a vulnerable person if I get the virus and don't know it, because there seems to be transmission before symptoms appear. I usually visit my 82 year old mother about two hours away every week or so, but I'm holding off for a bit.

This scientist at Fred Hutch has an excellent blog, they are doing some cutting edge science tracing the spread. https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-crypti...x1AWu5lQboMR7gM9_SJmaZTEpjvghyieIUhbMKW_WFcyI Scroll to the end for some very sensible precautions anyone can take.

We are retired introverts with a house full of books and we can still go for our daily walks, just not around crowds. My brother, however, is a librarian at the Central Branch of the library, so I worry a bit about him.

Stay safe, everyone!

 

[tulak]

^^^^ That is a great article!

I found this interesting:

We now believe that the Seattle area seeding event was ~Jan 15 and we're now ~7 weeks later. I expect Seattle now to look like Wuhan around ~1 Jan, when they were reporting the first clusters of patients with unexplained viral pneumonia. We are currently estimating ~600 infections in Seattle, this matches my phylodynamic estimate of the number of infections in Wuhan on Jan 1. Three weeks later, Wuhan had thousands of infections and was put on large-scale lock-down. However, these large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions to create social distancing had a huge impact on the resulting epidemic. China averted many millions of infections through these intervention measures and cases there have declined substantially.

I was thinking about this earlier today. China’s number seems to have stabilized around 80k. Do we know if this is accurate, indicating that China has been successful in containing the spread, or is the number wrong?

 

[Pellice]

When are you going to curtail your activities? I’m asking as I’m having a hard time thinking it’d be premature where we live in the middle of the country to do so now...I was going to wait until a few more Seattles happened.

Yet this article https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/health/coronavirus-older-people-social-distancing/index.html points to experts saying those over 60 and people with underlying conditions should start social distancing now.

And sure enough, the CDC website says to stay at home as much as possible now for those groups: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...gh-risk-complications.html#who-is-higher-risk

Trying to wrap my head around doing that now, but I guess most of what we do out is elective...restaurants 5 or so times a week, gym 3x a week, and my wife’s fun job at a candy store.

So what metric will you use to determine when you stay home most of the time?

This is the telling question, right? I'm guessing it would happen in phases. This is dicey, but that should be ok. Right now, my arbitrary metric would rely on what my very local officials, who ARE sending out informational alerts, have to say.

My elderly neighbor, over 80 and with longstanding respiratory problems, will decide by noon today whether she and I go to an event tonight. I've advised her not to, and advised her to speak with her doctor. But ... she loves to be out in social situations. Right now, I think she won't go.

 

[FIREd]

I tutor high school kids. Two days ago, I was contacted by a parent letting me know that one of her work colleagues tested positive to Covid-19 and 5 more of her colleagues are under mandatory quarantine. She decided to self-isolate for 14 days and asked me to switch to remote tutoring via email and FaceTime. It works rather well and I made the switch for all the kids I tutor. It eliminates a big source of exposure for me.

 

[MichaelB]

An interesting graphic by Hong Kong Medical School that contrasts different calculations of mortality rate.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

When are you going to curtail your activities? I’m asking as I’m having a hard time thinking it’d be premature where we live in the middle of the country to do so now...I was going to wait until a few more Seattles happened.

Yet this article https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/health/coronavirus-older-people-social-distancing/index.html points to experts saying those over 60 and people with underlying conditions should start social distancing now.

And sure enough, the CDC website says to stay at home as much as possible now for those groups: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...gh-risk-complications.html#who-is-higher-risk

Trying to wrap my head around doing that now, but I guess most of what we do out is elective...restaurants 5 or so times a week, gym 3x a week, and my wife’s fun job at a candy store.

So what metric will you use to determine when you stay home most of the time?

Probably we will wait until instructed/advised to do so. No one in our household is in a high risk group, though, if they were, our calculations would be different. But our state, county, and employers all are very good about public health, so we trust their judgement. Besides, personally I don't usually get closer than 2-3 feet to anyone at work, and we just had more sanitizer dispensers added near the doors, even though we already had some (and I have some on my desk).

We don't usually eat at restaurants, we usually get takeout, but that might need to stop as there is still exposure from handling the items; even if the food is hot enough, the outside of the containers and bags are a concern. But our "gym" is in our basement, at least. Plus, I've got 6 months to a year's worth of alcohol in the basement....although if we're quarantined, that might only last a month!

 

[Tiger8693]

I was thinking about this earlier today. China’s number seems to have stabilized around 80k. Do we know if this is accurate, indicating that China has been successful in containing the spread, or is the number wrong?

That is a good question. As someone a few posts up stated that someone "estimated" that 1/3 of the world would/could get this, translating to 180 million cases in the us.... That would mean ~400 million cases in China (Pop 1.3B). If that's the case, and if they are seeing a slow down in cases so you "could assume" the other 320 million cases are just mild or not reported. What would the mortality rate be then? somewhere around 2500 out of 400 million cases so, say minuscule?

There's a lot of different ways to posit what "might" happen....

 

[donheff]

That is a good question. As someone a few posts up stated that someone "estimated" that 1/3 of the world would/could get this, translating to 180 million cases in the us.... That would mean ~400 million cases in China (Pop 1.3B). If that's the case, and if they are seeing a slow down in cases so you "could assume" the other 320 million cases are just mild or not reported. What would the mortality rate be then? somewhere around 2500 out of 400 million cases so, say minuscule?

There's a lot of different ways to posit what "might" happen....

It does seem to be rather indolent. The question is whether the epidemic is just gathering steam or is going to be a nothing burger.

 

[Tiger8693]

It does seem to be rather indolent.

Had to look that one up. It's possible, but just like all the posts of pandemic and extreme mortality rates, just a guess at this point. Like I said a few days ago, I prefer thinking it's "indolent". And before someone says it, that doesn't mean "head in the sand".

 

[GenXguy]

That is a good question. As someone a few posts up stated that someone "estimated" that 1/3 of the world would/could get this, translating to 180 million cases in the us.... That would mean ~400 million cases in China (Pop 1.3B). If that's the case, and if they are seeing a slow down in cases so you "could assume" the other 320 million cases are just mild or not reported. What would the mortality rate be then? somewhere around 2500 out of 400 million cases so, say minuscule?

There's a lot of different ways to posit what "might" happen....

How did you come up with the 180 million and 320 million figures? I wasn't able to reproduce a result anywhere near that with some quick calculations.

 

[Tiger8693]

How did you come up with the 180 million and 320 million figures? I wasn't able to reproduce a result anywhere near that with some quick calculations.

Sorry, my numbers are wrong based on the post (#722) by Trombone Al. In it, a Harvard Epidemiologist stated that 55% of the worlds population could be infected, not my 33%, so while the 180 million US number is right, the China infected number, based on 1.3B population, would have been closet to 700 million. Since all accounts are that things are on the decline in China, a large part of that would have already been infected, and just not tested/reported, so the ~2500 deaths would be - even a more miniscule mortality %.

 

[brewer12345]

^^^^ That is a great article!

I found this interesting:



I was thinking about this earlier today. China’s number seems to have stabilized around 80k. Do we know if this is accurate, indicating that China has been successful in containing the spread, or is the number wrong?

China has been cooking the books forever on all sorts of stats. I don't think the publicly released data is credible.

 

[JoeWras]

China has been cooking the books forever

Well, as we discussed earlier, raising your books to a high temperature has been shown to kill COVID-19. So, can't blame them for cooking.

 

[TromboneAl]

I was thinking about this earlier today. China’s number seems to have stabilized around 80k. Do we know if this is accurate, indicating that China has been successful in containing the spread, or is the number wrong?

I've seen articles that say that independent observers have confirmed that the numbers really are stabilizing there. OTOH, Richard Engel is skeptical:

He notes: [China] locked up 50 million people under quarantine and had drones flying around ordering you home and tackling people and carrying them away ...

My guess: a little of both.

 

[TromboneAl]

That's a very hard question to answer! [When to stay home.]

There are no confirmed coronavirus cases in our state. But, some appeared in Houston, which is about 300 miles away. Eek.

I've been thinking about this, too. There's only one person in Humboldt County that has it, and the local news says he's getting better.

It's frustrating that the actual CDC warning says "What to do if you are at higher risk: Stay at home as much as possible." and "Who is at Higher Risk?
Older adults and people who have severe chronic medical conditions like heart, lung or kidney disease seem to be at higher risk for more serious COVID-19 illness." But they don't define "older adults"! Unnecessarily vague.

There's one other aspect to the "there are no confirmed cases in our state" and "there's only one case in our county" that I'll leave up to the reader to figure out.

Today we're going to Starbucks, Costco, and the library. Maybe the last time for each?

I wonder if the warning will make some cocoon too soon and get cabin fever just when there are more cases on the street.

 

[Fermion]

Oh, it's kind of a kiddie game, Animal Crossing New Horizons. I utterly adore Animal Crossing games for some reason. They are so gentle, peaceful, and happy. But if you want more of a battle, Doom Eternal is being released by Nintendo on the same day (March 20th). I used to play that kind of game but as I grow older, I like the gentler games more.

I was raiding in our World of Warcraft guild last night and all the females in the guild were talking about Animal Crossing and how they couldn't wait for it.

 

[tulak]

I would think that it would be hard for China to coverup deaths, which makes me inclined to believe that it is slowing down there. Maybe the infected rate is higher, but they might not care if the impact is controlled? After all, showing that more people are getting infected would cause more panic, so why do that?

That’s a good sign for all of us, assuming we can similarly contain the virus.

 

[Fermion]

I think we need to realize China goes a bit overboard on things like this. Everyone wears a mask, they put up barriers to apartment buildings.

It isn't a wonder that the virus isn't spreading, they are isolating themselves individually.

Won't work in the USA...we even have our government saying don't wear masks....EVERYONE in China is wearing a mask.

 

[brewer12345]

I would think that it would be hard for China to coverup deaths, which makes me inclined to believe that it is slowing down there. Maybe the infected rate is higher, but they might not care if the impact is controlled? After all, showing that more people are getting infected would cause more panic, so why do that?

That’s a good sign for all of us, assuming we can similarly contain the virus.

It is very easy for a totalitarian police state to cover up deaths. The pollution indicators did not drop around Wuhan even during the depths of the quarantine. Crematoriums pump out a lot.