Coronavirus - Travel impacts II

[ivinsfan]

It's a move of desperation by an industry that's been less than respectful of their customers for decades; they aren't selling their staunch zero refund product in the face of this uncertainty, so they soften it slightly.



In their typical customer hostile mode, I expect they won't cancel flights early, even if they know they won't be flying. They'll wait for most people to cancel and forfeit their purchase, then cancel at the last moment, and then offer only a future credit to those who made their way to the gate. I hope I'm wrong, but if past behavior is any indication...

I suspect a bigger issue if this continues to escalate will be the avaibility of flight crews. Then they will need to cancel proactively. How many countries do you think the crews that serviced Italy have been to in the last 4 weeks?

 

[Sunset]

Witht the apparent lack of a "good" diagnosis method, we could be "missing" a lot of actual cases, so that mortality rate could be a lot lower? There are a lot of what-if's now. I guess I am just the glass half full personality and not thinking 3-5% of the world population is going to be culled out. Hopefully I am right!

I'm sure we are missing a lot of cases, but even the 3.4% kill rate of confirmed cases shows that the overall rate is much much lower.
Mild cases are not reported.
This number comes from China, and their hospitals are swamped so they only take in serious cases, and probably don't have enough ventilators & equipment so extra people die.

So in my (+) outlook view, the overall mortality rate will be much lower, I'm guessing .6% -> .8% of the people who catch it.

 

[TromboneAl]

Or C.. just go about your business as usual figuring if I get it I get it and I'm not making my lifestyle about dodging potential viruses.

Yes, I think this will happen as cabin fever sets in, but only if it turns out that getting it gives you future immunity.

 

[TromboneAl]

Is there no reasonable way to test whether getting sick from COVID-19 makes you immune to future infections? Of course, we can't purposely expose someone who's had it, but is there some kind of test you can do? Check for antibodies?

 

[W2R]

Is there no reasonable way to test whether getting sick from COVID-19 makes you immune to future infections? Of course, we can't purposely expose someone who's had it, but is there some kind of test you can do? Check for antibodies?

I read on the internet (and we know the internet is ALWAYS right, right? ) that you do not gain immunity to future infections and can catch it twice.

Who knows if that is true; just reporting what I read.

 

[ivinsfan]

Is there no reasonable way to test whether getting sick from COVID-19 makes you immune to future infections? Of course, we can't purposely expose someone who's had it, but is there some kind of test you can do? Check for antibodies?

Well if one wanted to guess, I would guess it could like most flu strains. there is kind of a Mama strain and then variations of that strain. So you might have some immunity but might still catch a lighter version. Much like they try to calculate the predominant flu strain every year. Of course this is a WAG.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Is there no reasonable way to test whether getting sick from COVID-19 makes you immune to future infections? Of course, we can't purposely expose someone who's had it, but is there some kind of test you can do? Check for antibodies?

There may be antibodies present, but that doesn't mean that you are immune. I am not certain, but it could be due to genetic drift, much like we see with the different strains of the flu. We supposedly give ourselves immunity to influenza when we get vaccinated, but that doesn't give us 100% immunity. (It's much higher for most childhood vaccinations, but the seasonal flu vaccinations have had an effective rate of 10-60% in recent years, depending on the year.)

 

[braumeister]

I read on the internet (and we know the internet is ALWAYS right, right? ) that you do not gain immunity to future infections and can catch it twice.

Certainly true, but nuanced.

After all, that's why we get a flu shot every year -- the virus is constantly mutating and they craft each year's shot for whichever strains they feel are most likely to be a problem for that year (largely guesswork, but still...).

So no matter how many flu shots we've had in our lives, or how many times we've come down with the flu, we're still always at risk of catching it again.

Same thing for this virus, which is too new for the experts to know that much about yet. But just as flu shots give us at least some immunity for future exposure, catching the COVID-19 ought to give us at least some protection.

 

[Sunset]

Is there no reasonable way to test whether getting sick from COVID-19 makes you immune to future infections? Of course, we can't purposely expose someone who's had it, but is there some kind of test you can do? Check for antibodies?

I wish we knew that.

If it acted like Measles, giving you immunity that would be good.

However, if it acts like the common cold, (constant tiny mutations branching off new strains) then there will never be natural immunity. This is more likely as it is in the same family of those other Corona viruses.

 

[audreyh1]

An American Airlines flight to Milan was cancelled as the cabin crew refused to fly. But apparently AA was going to deadhead them back from Milan. At no pay on the deadhead. AA also cancelled all (?) flights to Milan to about April 25. Other flights to Italy not affected


https://onemileatatime.com/american-airlines-suspends-milan-flights/

I may be cancelling my London Paris trip April

So DaveBarnes flew to Milan just a couple of days ago, right? Gosh, I hope he doesn’t get stuck there.

 

[ivinsfan]

So DaveBarnes flew to Milan just a couple of days ago, right? Gosh, I hope he doesn’t get stuck there.

It's possible but he could go to another country and fly back from there. But now the question turns into does he get quarantined upon his return. So far it's no quarantine but you knows the future

 

[sengsational]

Is there no reasonable way to test whether getting sick from COVID-19 makes you immune to future infections? Of course, we can't purposely expose someone who's had it, but is there some kind of test you can do? Check for antibodies?

Al, Take a look at this post, which has an image of the variants of the 2019 CoV. It looks more like "the common cold" type of problem, where there are too many variants to just get the disease once.

https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...aredness-aspects-ii-102346-4.html#post2378136

 

[Youngblood]

I'm watching closely to see how this rolls out. I have a trip to Vegas in 9 days. I really want to go because I'm meeting my brother there. It's frustrating, because for the past 3 years I have planned a trip to see him, but I have had medical issues that prevented me from going on each of those trips. I guess I'm not too concerned with catching something, but rather being caught in quarantine far from home.


This time I did not get the insurance on my flights (American). I guess I can only hope AA will accommodate if the spread gets really bad. If not, then I'll be out some dough. Right now I think I'm 50/50 on going or not.

 

[Teacher Terry]

I purposely didn’t book Airbnb for Europe because they keep some of your money if you cancel and sometimes all of it. So glad I did that. We had one booked in placerville when the electricity was shut off and the host wouldn’t refund our money. I called Airbnb and had to escalate it to a supervisor. It was late October which meant no electricity for my cpap machine, no heat and I played the senior card. We go there to have fun and everything was shut down with no electricity.

 

[simple girl]

This brings a question with a different answer for everyone. Figure at some point you will eventually be exposed to it. Do you A.. just stay close to the comforts of home and your own doctors? B stay home until hopefully they find a vaccine which if it's like the flu vaccine might be 50% effective. Or C.. just go about your business as usual figuring if I get it I get it and I'm not making my lifestyle about dodging potential viruses.

I suspect everyone has their own reasons for picking one of the three. For us during heavy flu season we don't go on airplanes or around big crowds.

We do spend time with our small grandchildren if they are well. If they are unwell we reschedule. So we pick and choose what's important to us.

For me, it's A. I like your plan of not traveling during heavy flu season. I hope the coronavirus turns out to just be bad in the wintertime like the flu. It seems they aren't sure yet.

I got the flu this year (despite getting the flu shot), and it kicked my butt bad. Thank goodness I got in fast enough to start Tamiflu. I am 52 and have no other health conditions. I am SO glad I was able to be in the comfort of my own home while recovering.

This experience has made me feel more vulnerable to the flu and now the coronavirus. It definitely makes me less inclined to want to travel during the winter months. Thank goodness we live in Florida! lol

 

[TromboneAl]

Al, Take a look at this post, which has an image of the variants of the 2019 CoV. It looks more like "the common cold" type of problem, where there are too many variants to just get the disease once.

https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...aredness-aspects-ii-102346-4.html#post2378136

Uninformed speculation ahead ...

Yeah, that's discouraging. If it is like the common cold, then there's not much chance of creating a vaccine.

My understanding of the rhinovirus is that there are about 200 varieties, and if you've had one, you are immune to that particular virus. I use that to explain why sometimes I get a cold and Lena doesn't or vice versa. Probably an oversimplification.

My take on the COVID-19 reinfections are that they are probably just relapses or mistakes.

 

[gwraigty]

I read on the internet (and we know the internet is ALWAYS right, right? ) that you do not gain immunity to future infections and can catch it twice.

Who knows if that is true; just reporting what I read.

I've read that also, but this article debunks the idea that you can catch the same strain twice:

Did a Woman Get Coronavirus Twice? Scientists Are Skeptical

What could be worse than getting the pneumonia-like illness now known as Covid-19? Getting it twice.

That’s what Japanese government officials say may have happened to a female tour bus guide in Osaka. The woman was first diagnosed with Covid-19 in late January, according to a statement released by Osaka’s prefectural government Wednesday. She was discharged shortly after, once her symptoms had improved. A subsequent test came back negative for the virus. Three weeks later she returned with a sore throat and chest pain and tested again. For a second time, she tested positive for Covid-19.

...

But others think the more likely scenario is that the virus can just linger in some people’s bodies longer than expected. “I suspect this is in fact a continuation of the original infection,” says Susan Kline, an infectious disease physician and epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota.

...

One is that the test wasn’t sensitive enough to pick up traces of the virus. The RT-PCR tests currently in use for diagnosing Covid-19 require a fair amount of genetic material to work well. If the coronavirus is actively making more copies of itself, there will be lots of RNA for the test to detect. But if the viral load goes down, the test can give false negatives. That can happen because the patient’s immune system is mounting a strong response. Or it could be that a treatment is slowing down the coronavirus’s self-replication spree. Another possibility is that the sample was just bad—the swab didn’t pick up much virus in the first place.

I believe this is entirely possible. Did you ever get sick, seem to get over it, then feel sick all over again within a few days? I know I have.

 

[ivinsfan]

For me, it's A. I like your plan of not traveling during heavy flu season. I hope the coronavirus turns out to just be bad in the wintertime like the flu. It seems they aren't sure yet.

I got the flu this year (despite getting the flu shot), and it kicked my butt bad. Thank goodness I got in fast enough to start Tamiflu. I am 52 and have no other health conditions. I am SO glad I was able to be in the comfort of my own home while recovering.

This experience has made me feel more vulnerable to the flu and now the coronavirus. It definitely makes me less inclined to want to travel during the winter months. Thank goodness we live in Florida! lol

Well our caution is probably a little residue of my DH health scare during flu season two years ago. We stayed healthy and he was able to have his surgery on time. However due to some unique complications he almost didn't get out of the OR alive. His surgeon very highly regarded and with 40 years experience literally saved his life. We realize if he had needed that surgery due to an emergency away from home he could have very likely died. I completely understand people who from past health issues are nervous about being away from known reliable care. We always did a lot of snowbirding in the winter and I think it will be that way again sometime, but not this year.

 

[EastWest Gal]

Unless you test the 18K deaths from flu, you don't really know they are all the flu, perhaps this year the flu is very mild, and mixed in are actually some deaths from covid-19.

Hospitals and ERs routinely test for flu in very ill patients. Every hospital orders thousands of tests each flu season. Those 18,000 deaths from flu? Yep, they were diagnosed by specific influenza viral testing. Also, since there is specific treatment for influenza, testing is usually done prior to treatment. Someone critically ill, or who died in a hospital of suspected flu, or who died prior to hospital care, all of these situations will undergo testing either before or after death.

 

[ivinsfan]

I just my states website of flu activity.

latest posted say 34% of flu tests samples came back positive. Who know what the other 2/3 of sick people actually had wrong with them.

So you could go to the clinic with just a cold be exposed and catch the flu a few days or vice versa.

 

[tmm99]

Some experts suggest that this could be bi-phasic like anthrax, meaning it lies dormant before creating new symptoms, though it says this is unlikely to be common based on current information.

Basically, they don't know anything definitively at this point in time. Only time will tell.

 

[Trooper]

DW and I have considerable travel this year, all booked prior to the outbreak of the virus. Some of it is domestic some international. All involve flights except a July trip to CA for which we will drive.

The mid-May international trip is the one we are wrestling with right now. It's a 14-day cruise in/out of Amsterdam, going to Scotland, Norway, England, Ireland, and France. We're also going to spend 4 days in a rented AirBnB in Amsterdam prior to the cruise, then take a train to Paris and do the same there after the cruise. Should we cancel now, we'd be out about $7K most of which is cruise cancellation cost and air. We'll lose more if we wait until after the 15th of this month. We purchased trip cancellation insurance, but not the CFAR insurance - cuz I didn't think we would need it

We're still planning to go but we're monitoring the progress of things daily.

 

[Dtail]

Here is a question for you folks.
We are about to cancel our Dominican trip. We can cancel the hotel with no issue, but the airline fare is different.

We already paid 1200 for the airfare and have insurance coverage through Alliance.
It states in the Alliance policy that an Epidemic is not covered. I asked how about if a pandemic is issued by the WHO?
The rep stated that if it is not stated that it is a covered event, then it is not covered.
I countered that it doesn't state anywhere in the policy that it is not covered as the default choice, if it is not stated as covered.
If a pandemic is declared, do you think I have a case for a claim?

 

[tmm99]

Japan is experiencing 60% drop in seasonal flu cases compared to last year. It could be due to all the handwashing and other preventative measures they are taking...

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...s-japan-amid-spread-coronavirus/#.Xl1k4-bYrnE

 

[Sunset]

Here is a question for you folks.
We are about to cancel our Dominican trip. We can cancel the hotel with no issue, but the airline fare is different.

We already paid 1200 for the airfare and have insurance coverage through Alliance.
It states in the Alliance policy that an Epidemic is not covered. I asked how about if a pandemic is issued by the WHO?
The rep stated that if it is not stated that it is a covered event, then it is not covered.
I countered that it doesn't state anywhere in the policy that it is not covered as the default choice, if it is not stated as covered.
If a pandemic is declared, do you think I have a case for a claim?

No.
They only pay for what is stated is covered, nothing else.

Have you asked the Airline,

1. perhaps they will refund you,
2. or give you credit to use within a year,
3. or if you had some other plan of travel, you could change the flight destination ?

It's worth asking them.