COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?

[W2R]

Not sure if you're being serious, but I agree with the gist of what you're saying. Given that a vaccine is at least a year away, we need to reconcile to the fact the majority are eventually going to get this (and recover).

I am starting to feel this way, too. Staying home all the time is growing old, really fast. Even though I am in a high risk category, I just do not want to spend the rest of my life like this. At some point it might be worth the risk just to get out and DO things and live our lives like we did before the pandemic.

OK, I am not at that point yet where I am willing to risk it, but I might be before too long.

 

[Midpack]

After weeks of staying at home - I took a 30 mile drive into the big city on Saturday, said it was buy lunch, but I didn't even get lunch while I was out. I just had to get away and see some different scenery away from house, neighborhood and local grocery. Cabin fever I guess. If I lived alone, I'd have gone bonkers a while ago, DW and I are keeping each other active.

I don't think any of us really know how this will play out, Gates guess is as good as any. I assume the economy will restart in stages, and there will have to be extra precautions for those with underlying health issues (often elderly) - but I assume that will have to be voluntary. Many here say Americans won't adhere to a mandatory stay at home for higher risk people - I don't know.

I know we'll be wary at first our in public, maybe even some habits will change permanently who knows yet. We love movies, theaters, concerts and restaurants - but those pastimes may be gone for years for us.

I think most people, self included, are drastically underestimating the economic damage this has already done - and that will only get worse the longer this goes on. The government just can't keep sending our trillions with no consequences, despite what some here believe. Some businesses are up dramatically, others will be destroyed never to return.

 

[Chuckanut]

And I don't think most of us realize the extent of the economic damage this is going to inflict.

+1

IMHO, by June, if we keep the current level of lock-down, the economic damage will begin to really hurt. The pressure to restart the economy will be huge.

Currently, there is concern that minority groups suffer more from this disease due to poorer economic conditions. Assuming that is true, how do we fight this disease by driving more people into the poorer socio-economic groups? Poverty has never been known to cure a disease.

The medical establishment and politicians are certainly well intentioned and are probably right about the lock-down at this time. But, most are also well insulated from the damage this is causing to ordinary people. At some point the cure may become worse than the disease.

First, do no harm.

 

[Rianne]

The opportunity for new business, small business is the silver lining. I think of the creative, innovative ways new business can be set up to protect customers from germ exchange. Few of us know what goes on in the kitchen of a restaurant or behind closed doors of a food factory. Sanitation practices and using those practices to advertise looks promising. Panera is doing a good job with their e-mails already. They explain the precautions their workers are taking to protect customers.

Innovation for people gathering. I picture germ killing screens between people. You can see, hear face to face contact, but screen protects from germ flow. Medical innovation to home test viral/bacterial infections. Eliminating Dr appts.

My DC, nurse at Johns Hopkins, text me last night. She said a Skype or Zoom connection with a Dr gives the Dr much information. They can tell a lot from your facial coloring, your body language (eye movement, speech). Your own description of how your feeling, they can ask many questions and get answers that may be difficult in an office setting. I always forget 1/2 of what I wanted to say at an office visit. In the comfort of your home, communicating with a Dr may be more comfortable and open about your condition.
Just a few thoughts about the positive changes that might take place.

 

[sengsational]

IgG Certified Only Establishment

Prediction: We will have businesses (dentists come to mind) that will say that the entire staff is IgG positive (have had the disease).



I can see it now... A new resume bullet: IgG positive for SARS-CoV-2

 

[Dtail]

After weeks of staying at home - I took a 30 mile drive into the big city on Saturday, said it was buy lunch, but I didn't even get lunch while I was out. I just had to get away and see some different scenery away from house, neighborhood and local grocery. Cabin fever I guess. If I lived alone, I'd have gone bonkers a while ago, DW and I are keeping each other active.

I don't think any of us really know how this will play out, Gates guess is as good as any. I assume the economy will restart in stages, and there will have to be extra precautions for those with underlying health issues (often elderly) - but I assume that will have to be voluntary. Many here say Americans won't adhere to a mandatory stay at home for higher risk people - I don't know.

I know we'll be wary at first our in public, maybe even some habits will change permanently who knows yet. We love movies, theaters, concerts and restaurants - but those pastimes may be gone for years for us.

I think most people, self included, are drastically underestimating the economic damage this has already done - and that will only get worse the longer this goes on. The government just can't keep sending our trillions with no consequences, despite what some here believe. Some businesses are up dramatically, others will be destroyed never to return.

At least 2x weekly, we go for a drive to nowhere along the FLA country roads. It is a nice respite from staying home.

 

[LARS]

My DC, nurse at Johns Hopkins, text me last night. She said a Skype or Zoom connection with a Dr gives the Dr much information. They can tell a lot from your facial coloring, your body language (eye movement, speech). Your own description of how your feeling, they can ask many questions and get answers that may be difficult in an office setting. I always forget 1/2 of what I wanted to say at an office visit. In the comfort of your home, communicating with a Dr may be more comfortable and open about your condition.
Just a few thoughts about the positive changes that might take place.

The only good news in all this mess is that the fact that we're dealing/experiencing it with the tremendous boon of the Internet.

From information to banking to food delivery to your example of virtual medicine it has made this Pandemic a little less scary; and, certainly more manageable for the individual.

 

[gauss]

How about a real source for this (and not a subreddit where anybody can post anything they want with no backing of fact). From most accounts (including the governor of the state and mayor of NYC), they have NOT had to ration ventilators.

Of course, it doesn't help that the city auctioned off ventilators because they were "too expensive" to maintain source: https://www.propublica.org/article/how-new-york-city-emergency-ventilator-stockpile-ended-up-on-the-auction-block

+1

I also thought that the previous post was not consistent with [-]Mario[/-] Andrew Cuomo's recent press conference the other day where at the end he said that the hospital administrators are no longer asking for help and there is now vacancy.

 

[Helen]

Not sure if you're being serious, but I agree with the gist of what you're saying. Given that a vaccine is at least a year away, we need to reconcile to the fact the majority are eventually going to get this (and recover).
The quarantine has flattened the curve enough for hospitals to handle the (relatively) small % needing care.
While returning to work and opening businesses, continue to practice "smart distancing" (my own term). If you get sick, stay home until symptom free.
If an at risk category, continue to protect yourself.

Another benefit of the quarantine has been the development of promising therapeutic drugs to treat the most seriously afflicted.

I plan on giving this a little more time. Right now the medical community hasn't had enough time to really understand this virus and know how to treat it. For example, I keep reading discussions on whether using a ventilator does more harm than good.

OTOH, I'm not really sure what 'giving this a little more time' means for me since I am retired. We are staying down in southern California with plenty of safe things to do (private pool, tennis courts that no one else seems to use, pool table, bicycles) until the end of May. I am hoping to be able to go hiking and backpacking this summer, I think I can do that safely if they open the national forests to the public..

I will not be going to doctor/dentist appointments this year unless it is an emergency. I won't go to restaurants, movies and will grocery shop off hours.

This is a really good time to be FI and retired. I feel for people who aren't.

 

[Sunset]

So do you think you will self isolate for 1+ years? Hard to imagine that on my end, but who knows?
The over 100k figure sounds too high, unless there is a mutant 2nd wave. NY/NJ account for over half the deaths and they are starting to slow down.

I imagine nearly everyone will be really tired of self isolation if not already.

I cannot truly believe I'll self isolate for 1+ yrs, but instead could consider a something close such as:
Rare trips to grocery store, rest of time using grocery pickup.
Vacation to National parks (if open) and campgrounds, to camp as will be easy to maintain 10 ft distance from others, much safer than using a hotel room which would result in more interactions.

All the current estimates of death, pretty much assume zero deaths after July, which is only realistic if we are all still isolated, or the virus is dead and never comes back, and that is not going to happen.

 

[Ready]

I can't imagine going a full year without playing pickleball or going for a swim, my two daily forms of exercise and recreation. I certainly hope it doesn't come down to that.

 

[brewer12345]

+1

I also thought that the previous post was not consistent with Mario Cuomo's recent press conference the other day where at the end he said that the hospital administrators are no longer asking for help and there is now vacancy.

Was that press conference conducted via Ouija Board?

 

[Dtail]

I can't imagine going a full year without playing pickleball or going for a swim, my two daily forms of exercise and recreation. I certainly hope it doesn't come down to that.

Same exercise for me and same thoughts.

 

[USGrant1962]

Was that press conference conducted via Ouija Board?

Ha, good catch.

 

[gauss]

Was that press conference conducted via Ouija Board?

Thanks - While I was watching today's press conference just now, I had a sneaky feeling that I botched the first name on a prior post here. You folks made it real easy for me to track it down.

 

[Ready]

I assume the economy will restart in stages, and there will have to be extra precautions for those with underlying health issues (often elderly) - but I assume that will have to be voluntary. Many here say Americans won't adhere to a mandatory stay at home for higher risk people - I don't know.

Without a doubt when things start to reopen those who consider themselves in the lower risk category and not going to be willing to stay at home to protect everyone else. People are going stir crazy and it’s been less than a month for most of us.

On my last day of playing pickleball at my club, when every other gym had closed down and a stay at home mandate had been issued, an 80 year old woman showed up at the club to play pickleball with us. I asked her why she was coming out given the risks. She said she just couldn’t bare to stay at home by herself with nothing to do.

That was at the very beginning of the shutdown. I would guess at least 40% of the country is going to want to resume many normal activities the day the restrictions are eased.

People are generally complying for the moment. But we can only keep people locked up in their homes for so long before they just flat out revolt.

 

[Midpack]

People are generally complying for the moment. But we can only keep people locked up in their homes for so long before they just flat out revolt.

+1. Our individual thresholds may vary, but I agree, sooner or later people are just going to resume some/many aspects of their lives (large gatherings and confined spaces with strangers will presumably be last activities to resume).

While out for a couple errands I stopped for a latte this morning, realized I didn't have my N95, but I bought coffee anyway...

 

[Independent]

People are generally complying for the moment. But we can only keep people locked up in their homes for so long before they just flat out revolt.

+1
Different people will revolt at different times. I saw a discussion about teens on another board. Some people just like to socialize more than others. They don't have to go to concerts or restaurants, but get together for dinner or cards with close friends.

Governors need to look at medical care usage. When the number hospitalized looks like it is going to stabilize around half the surge capacity, it's time to loosen up a little. When it looks a couple weeks away from hitting that capacity, got to squeeze it back down.

There are plenty of small steps -- outside construction/maintenance, auto sales, general retail, 50% capacity in counter service restaurant dining rooms, tennis courts, ...

I posted a story about survivors getting their lives back on another thread. https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...conomy-false-choice-103226-4.html#post2409871 There will be more stories like that. Some people, especially young people, are going to say they can go out or get together because getting the virus is not the end of the world. They'd rather have it and get it over with.

New York is a special case. They have enough survivors that they will start moving around. They will not be willing to accept the shut down. Restarting will involve them.

 

[gwraigty]

People are generally complying for the moment. But we can only keep people locked up in their homes for so long before they just flat out revolt.

Ohio's press conference is going on right now. You can hear shouting from protesters outside again. A reporter mentioned that they're actually banging on the windows. It's getting ugly for sure.

 

[Midpack]

How Our Cities Can Reopen After Coronavirus

We don't know yet, but here's a 10 point plan from a reasonably good source. If this all comes to pass, the changes will be VERY expensive IMO, which will shrink the scale of all of them. So expensive, some simply won't happen.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-...ities-can-reopen-after-the-covid-19-pandemic/

No pandemic or plague or natural disaster has killed off “the city,” or humanity’s need to live and work in urban clusters. Not the Black Plagues of the 14th century, or London’s cholera epidemic in the 1850s, or even 1918’s Spanish Flu, which killed tens of millions of people worldwide. That’s because cities’ concentration of people and economic activity—which serves as the motor force for innovation and economic growth—is just too strong.

1. Pandemic-proof airports [and you thought TSA was a PITA]
2. Prepare large-scale civic assets: large-scale infrastructure: stadiums, arenas, convention centers, performing arts centers, etc...city leaders must pandemic-proof these assets as much as possible, too. Economic downturn will hit tourism-driven cities such as Orlando and Las Vegas hardest
3. Modify vital infrastructure: buses, subways, trains...design changes in stations and seating will be needed...pedestrianizing some streets to promote social distancing...some of these changes should be permanent.
4. Ready key anchor institutions: Medical centers, hospitals, and universities, dormitories, dining halls...retrofit with temperature checks and ensure adequate social distancing so they can safely function.
5. Embrace telework
6. Ensure Main Street survives restaurants, bars, specialty shops, hardware stores, and other mom and pop shops that create jobs and lend unique character to our cities are at severe economic risk right now. Some projections suggest that as many as 75% of them may not survive the current crisis.
7. Protect the arts and creative economy art galleries, museums, theaters, and music venues—along with the artists, musicians, and actors who fuel them—is also at dire risk. Once they are allowed to reopen, these places will also need to make interim and long-term changes in the way they operate.
8. Assess leading industries and clusters transportation, travel and hospitality, and the creative arts will be hit the hardest, while e-commerce and distribution or advanced manufacturing for health care and food processing may grow. Cities and economic development organizations must assess the industries and clusters that are most vulnerable in their territory, evaluate the impacts future pandemics will have for their labor markets and communities, and plan to make their economies more resilient and robust.
9. Upgrade jobs for front-line service workers emergency responders, health care aides, office and hospital cleaners, grocery store clerks, warehouse workers, delivery people—are on the front lines of the pandemic. They need better protection, higher pay, and more benefits.
10. Protect less-advantaged communities: The economic fallout of pandemics will hurt most for the least-advantaged neighborhoods and their residents, who lack adequate health coverage and access to medical care, and who are the most vulnerable to job losses.

 

[nhcycling]

Let’s face it, it’s going to be a long time before there’s any recovery, not weeks or months, it’ll be years. We’re going to be socially isolated for another 6 or 12 months. Start reading the reputable and scientific news.

 

[OldShooter]

We don't know yet, but here's a 10 point plan from a reasonably good source. ...

Well, from their LinkedIn profiles it appears that both authors are experts at being expert but have never actually done anything in the real world. What is obvious to you (cost, feasibility, government subversion of markets) is probably irrelevant or did not even occur to them. Lots of good buzz words though.

 

[Ronstar]

People can “plan” all they want, but cities will not effectively reopen until people are comfortable with going out. And the comfort level starts with a covid19 cure and vaccine.

The steps stated in the link may lessen one’s odds in contracting the virus, but not to the point where people will accept those odds IMO.

 

[stepford]

People can “plan” all they want, but cities will not effectively reopen until people are comfortable with going out. And the comfort level starts with a covid19 cure and vaccine.

The steps stated in the link may lessen one’s odds in contracting the virus, but not to the point where people will accept those odds IMO.

With all due respect, I think the comfort level ends rather than begins with a vaccine. If the infection rate died down sufficiently as a result of current mitigation efforts and a rigorous testing and contact tracing regime were in place I think many of us would be willing to resume something like normal life even in the absence of a vaccine.

 

[Midpack]

With all due respect, I think the comfort level ends rather than begins with a vaccine. If the infection rate died down sufficiently as a result of current mitigation efforts and a rigorous testing and contact tracing regime were in place I think many of us would be willing to resume something like normal life even in the absence of a vaccine.

Most of us aren't at risk of a serious case of coronavirus. Until there's a vaccine those at risk are going to have to take precautions. There are ways with broader testing to restart the economy for many at low risk, without overwhelming our health care resources. Whether our federal, state and local governments are working in that direction or not, no idea...

Gates argues that too little testing is being done in America and the testing that is being done is taking too long. This means we don’t have a good grasp on how many people are actually infected or a good roadmap of where the virus has been and where it’s heading next. “This is why the country needs clear priorities for who is tested,” Gates says, pointing out that far more tests need to be made available. “First on the list should be people in essential roles such as healthcare workers and first responders, followed by highly symptomatic people who are most at risk of becoming seriously ill and those who are likely to have been exposed.”