COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?

[Aerides]

Well I think the point that's between the lines here is even if Gov's lift orders in some places, some businesses may make different decisions - especially if they can't afford to staff back up for low expectations, or in lower-populated areas.

Where I live there are enough "fools to rush in" that most restaurants, malls, movies, etc., can expect to be full, but that might not be the case everywhere.

I know I'll be limiting my outings for some time, but many won't.

 

[Klubbie]

Thank you. Is your wife still working? I've heard that many health providers have been furloughed. There's an ER down the street from where DD works. They sent the staff to another local hospital where they felt most of the surge cases would be sent. It caused an immediate outcry among that local community. "What if we need to go to the ER, where do we go now?" I'm not sure if they've actually started setting up beds at the convention centers like they planned. I think they said they expected to hold those field hospitals open for about a year.

My wife is still working. She was deemed critical to her unit to keep functioning (PACU). Not sure how long that will last. My wife has said that since cutting elective surgeries about a month ago their volume is down 90%.

The problem there is two fold. Those surgeries deemed elective can be things like knee replacements. Well, eventually that goes from being classified as elective to needed. And my wife has often commented how the surgeries done at her hospital bring in a ton of money for healthcare providers. With 90% of cases cut, and surgeries being a money maker, math tells me that can only last so long.

To your comment about the convention centers....my wife is under the impression the convention center here in Columbus is a full fledged field hospital and plans to remain one for at least a year. I believe she has seen pictures of it. As of right now it has zero patients. That may well change and it is better to be safe than sorry, but of some of these volumes don't hit I wonder what the response will be.

 

[brewer12345]

It appears you are expecting logic from mobs of people. A fools errand.

"Its a fool that looks for logic in the chambers of the human heart."

Sounds like we are assured of an epic second wave. I am not joining in and am prepared to repel boarders when the inevitable happens.

 

[aaronc879]

What is it that all of these people think they will suddenly be able to do if the order is lifted?

Go to work mainly. Also go to Barber, Bars, and camping which are all shut down by the order. A lot of people out of work and the UE system is messed up so people aren't getting paid yet. Also schools shut down the rest of the year and so are play grounds and State parks so parents are going crazy having the kids in the house all day.

 

[Keim]

"Its a fool that looks for logic in the chambers of the human heart."

Sounds like we are assured of an epic second wave. I am not joining in and am prepared to repel boarders when the inevitable happens.

I am becoming convinced the pattern of the 1918 pandemic will be repeated. Second wave was much worse. Hopefully nothing near the scale will be repeated.

 

[aaronc879]

"Its a fool that looks for logic in the chambers of the human heart."

Sounds like we are assured of an epic second wave. I am not joining in and am prepared to repel boarders when the inevitable happens.

We're coming off a very long Winter that started in October so people just want to be able to go outside but they are very limited with this Order. Can't do much but walk around your own neighborhood which got old a few weeks ago and now will continue for at least 6 more weeks. Not a huge deal to me but a whole lot of people are seriously pissed off. So pissed that i'm concerned violence could cause more problems than the virus

 

[Chuckanut]

Yes. I have a Chinese friend who lives in the US. She thinks the Chinese approach has been far more effective as the country was only shut down for 7 weeks and things are pretty much back to normal there now. Her feeling is the US culture is the biggest impediment to overcoming this virus quickly.

I am reminded of a good friend and coworker who moved from NYC to LA years ago. He was always telling me (a native Angeleno) how NYC and NY state did this, that and the other things better than LA and California. Finally, one day I was fed up and I politely asked him "Joe, have you noticed that you chose to move from NY to LA, and I have never considered moving from LA to NY". He got the message.

Authoritarian governments have certain advantages in a crisis, especially in the short run. In America that dang Bill of Rights always gets in the way of the quick fix.

 

[brewer12345]

We're coming off a very long Winter that started in October so people just want to be able to go outside but they are very limited with this Order. Can't do much but walk around your own neighborhood which got old a few weeks ago and now will continue for at least 6 more weeks. Not a huge deal to me but a whole lot of people are seriously pissed off. So pissed that i'm concerned violence could cause more problems than the virus

Oddly, our orders are not so draconian and I hear far fewer complaints. There are so many people on the greenbelt trail behind the house on nice days that we avoid it.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

We've gone the opposite direction. Now making it a point to get take out at a good restaurant once a week. Its our way of supporting the restaurants in our small town. They've taken a huge hit, and it won't change until September at the earliest here-regardless of the national economy opening sooner.

I have gotten some gift certificates to locally owned places that I like. I do understand I'm running a risk if they end up going under.

 

[Helen]

We're coming off a very long Winter that started in October so people just want to be able to go outside but they are very limited with this Order. Can't do much but walk around your own neighborhood which got old a few weeks ago and now will continue for at least 6 more weeks. Not a huge deal to me but a whole lot of people are seriously pissed off. So pissed that i'm concerned violence could cause more problems than the virus

Yes, and I've come to realize my legs can carry me farther than my bladder will tolerate. No more popping into McDonalds to use their restroom

 

[Tiger8693]

I have relatives in North and South Carolina. There are hospitals laying nurses and other workers off because of the "non-essential" medical orders.

 

[PatrickA5]

Our "safer at home" orders have been extended until May 15th, but it only applies to people 65 and over or with underlying conditions. They haven't come up with a plan on what's re-opening in May 1st yet.

We've had protests - if you want to call it that. About 30 cars drove around in circles at the state capitol honking their horns. Only problem with that was there's nobody actually in the building. Kind of funny.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Oddly, our orders are not so draconian and I hear far fewer complaints. There are so many people on the greenbelt trail behind the house on nice days that we avoid it.

Brewer, there is a lot of dumb going on. I live in a fairly rural county (in NYS). I happen to have my class A RV at a campground in the same county, perhaps a 15 minute drive from my house. Got a call that the county is not allowing them to open until further notice. Now I do understand the potential issue - shared bathrooms, pool, playground equipment, etc. But their order also prevents me from even visiting my RV to perform work or to get it ready for the season - even though with the class A i have my own sewer hookup, water supply and pretty much never use the shared facilities. I can't even go get it to MOVE it to my 40+ acre property.

The larger issue is that there is never nuance - maybe because people exploit it or maybe simply because those in charge like the power trip.

So we get rules like "you must wear a mask" which makes sense if you are on a subway or in a store or even on a crowded sidewalk, but makes no sense if I'm out walking on a country road with no one around other than the horses on a horse farm or the bear(s) in the woods (that like to come mess with my bird feeders if I fail to bring them in at night).

 

[W2R]

What is it that all of these people think they will suddenly be able to do if the order is lifted?

That's an interesting point. I think most people don't actually DO very much in their day to day lives. But I think that it is our nature to rebel against being restrained and being unable to go places and do things if we decide we want to. At least in my case, I notice that I am starting to feel surprisingly resentful and "put upon" by this lockdown.

In reality, most of the things I would do are relatively minor, I suppose, but I still want to do them. Here are some of the things I would be doing if the lockdown were lifted, that I can't do now:

1. Go out to eat at a restaurant.
2. Go to the gym.
3. Go to the grocery store or other store with my face uncovered as is customary for American women.
4. Get my hair cut.
5. Say hi and "pass the time of day" with strangers that I encounter while out and about. Engage in the minor interactions and mutual minor kindnesses that go with that, and that restore one's faith in humanity. Make a friend or do a good deed. Feel like I'm not the last person left alive on earth.

Oh, and Frank could go back to his part time fun job, which he loves and which gives him not only social interaction, and fun money, but also a feeling of doing something worthwhile with his time.

 

[Midpack]

I am becoming convinced the pattern of the 1918 pandemic will be repeated. Second wave was much worse. Hopefully nothing near the scale will be repeated.

I hope we’re smarter than that, but I wouldn’t bet either way. Even though we believe we not at high risk, we plan to hang back as each sector/tier of businesses open. As much as we enjoy restaurants, I’d be surprised if we go back within a month of them reopening for sit down service. Will depend on what precautions they implement and what more learn about Covid-19. Tough times, lots of individual decisions we’ll all have to face in the months/year ahead.

 

[MichaelB]

Here’s an interesting take on exit strategy from J.P.Morgan. I wonder if they intend to apply it internally. https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-9ovokf4/6P7NFgmiolotx-biD-kR1g/GPS-3334428-0

If restrictions were eased on all individuals aged below 60, and without any relevant co-morbidities, and if those above 60, and those with relevant co-morbidities, continued with the limits on free movement that are currently in place, then the public authorities can limit pressure on healthcare systems and deaths while allowing significant parts of the economy and social system to quickly return to something closer to normality. Importantly, age- and morbidity-related restrictions would allow a rapid return of economic activity and a rapid buildup of herd immunity among the young. This may ultimately protect the old, and those with morbidities, more quickly than the arrival of a vaccine. This strikes us as a pretty good second-best policy in the absence of an ability to test widely. It is not perfect, but it may be the least bad outcome.

 

[brewer12345]

Brewer, there is a lot of dumb going on. I live in a fairly rural county (in NYS). I happen to have my class A RV at a campground in the same county, perhaps a 15 minute drive from my house. Got a call that the county is not allowing them to open until further notice. Now I do understand the potential issue - shared bathrooms, pool, playground equipment, etc. But their order also prevents me from even visiting my RV to perform work or to get it ready for the season - even though with the class A i have my own sewer hookup, water supply and pretty much never use the shared facilities. I can't even go get it to MOVE it to my 40+ acre property.

The larger issue is that there is never nuance - maybe because people exploit it or maybe simply because those in charge like the power trip.

So we get rules like "you must wear a mask" which makes sense if you are on a subway or in a store or even on a crowded sidewalk, but makes no sense if I'm out walking on a country road with no one around other than the horses on a horse farm or the bear(s) in the woods (that like to come mess with my bird feeders if I fail to bring them in at night).

I am completely comfortable ignoring idiotic or non-applicable pronouncements. I did not feel the need to wear a mask while shooting at the bottom of a hidden canyon in the middle of the national forest.

 

[Midpack]

That's an interesting point. I think most people don't actually DO very much in their day to day lives. But I think that it is our nature to rebel against being restrained and being unable to go places and do things if we decide we want to. At least in my case, I notice that I am starting to feel surprisingly resentful and "put upon" by this lockdown.

In reality, here is all I would be doing if the lockdown were lifted, that I can't do now:

1. Go out to eat at a restaurant.
2. Go to the gym.
3. Go to the grocery store or other store with my face uncovered as is customary for American women.
4. Get my hair cut. [Midpack: I didn’t realize how much that would bug me, but it does]
5. Say hi and "pass the time of day" with strangers that I encounter while out and about. Engage in the minor interactions and mutual minor kindnesses that go with that, and that restore one's faith in humanity. Make a friend or do a good deed. Feel like I'm not the last person left alive on earth.

I’d do all those things, and add:
6. Buy clothes/shoes (I need new running shoes NOW). There are lots of retailers that we’ll sorely miss eventually.
7. Go to our dentist, we both missed our regular cleaning/checkup already.
8. Go boating, we can’t here, suspended indefinitely.
9. Play league golf, suspended indefinitely. And only walking is allowed which cuts out lots of seniors.
10. Go to concerts, theater, neighborhood events (6-7/yr). We talk to our neighbors from a distance, but getting together at each other’s homes has stopped cold - that really sucks for us.
11. And we’re trying to meet the stay at home intent by not going shopping specifically for non-essential items. Yes we pick up non-essentials if we’re shopping for truly essential items, but I know lots of people aren’t, e.g. everyone is doing all kinds of landscaping projects around their homes - that can’t be essential?

 

[brewer12345]

That's an interesting point. I think most people don't actually DO very much in their day to day lives. But I think that it is our nature to rebel against being restrained and being unable to go places and do things if we decide we want to. At least in my case, I notice that I am starting to feel surprisingly resentful and "put upon" by this lockdown.

In reality, most of the things I would do are relatively minor, I suppose, but I still want to do them. Here are some of the things I would be doing if the lockdown were lifted, that I can't do now:

1. Go out to eat at a restaurant.
2. Go to the gym.
3. Go to the grocery store or other store with my face uncovered as is customary for American women.
4. Get my hair cut.
5. Say hi and "pass the time of day" with strangers that I encounter while out and about. Engage in the minor interactions and mutual minor kindnesses that go with that, and that restore one's faith in humanity. Make a friend or do a good deed. Feel like I'm not the last person left alive on earth.

Oh, and Frank could go back to his part time fun job, which he loves and which gives him not only social interaction, and fun money, but also a feeling of doing something worthwhile with his time.

If restrictions went away today, I imagine it would be a long time before most of us took the risk of doing these things.

 

[Midpack]

If restrictions went away today, I imagine it would be a long time before most of us took the risk of doing these things.

If by us you mean retirees maybe. But I suspect many/most people under 55 will ease back in sooner than later, but it appears we’re going to find out long before there’s a vaccine. We shouldn’t before we have more testing and some therapies but some leaders don’t seem to be inclined to wait long at all.

 

[W2R]

If restrictions went away today, I imagine it would be a long time before most of us took the risk of doing these things.

Sad, but true.

On the one hand I think I want to do these things, but I would probably put it off until nobody had died from CV-19 in my area for a few days. That isn't going to happen right away.

 

[Keim]

If by us you mean retirees maybe. But I suspect many/most people under 55 will ease back in sooner than later, but it appears we’re going to find out long before there’s a vaccine. We shouldn’t before we have more testing and some therapies but some leaders don’t seem to be inclined to wait long at all.

Speaking as someone under that age, I think you are correct. When restrictions are lifted I'd do all but #2 with little hesitation. (CONFESSION: I didn't do that one before).

But, part of my attitude comes from location. In my rural area there has been little COVID documented.

 

[Bongleur]

Relaxing lockdown vs Early phase doubling time was 2.3-3.3 days

Small localities are wanting to open themselves up. Ignores the fact that people will travel into any opened area to look for recreation & non-essential services. If the infectivity is actually about twice what the current model uses, what will happen?

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020
Research
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Steven Sanche1, Yen Ting Lin1, Chonggang Xu, Ethan Romero-Severson, Nick Hengartner, and Ruian KeComments to Author
Author affiliations: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7.

We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data.

Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9).

We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

 

[brewer12345]

Speaking as someone under that age, I think you are correct. When restrictions are lifted I'd do all but #2 with little hesitation. (CONFESSION: I didn't do that one before).

But, part of my attitude comes from location. In my rural area there has been little COVID documented.

My county has been one of the higher case concentrations in the state, although it is hard to tell because a minimal amount of testing has been done.

 

[brewer12345]

Nothing good except proving our leaders are about as dumb and corrupt as I had thought.