COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?

[harllee]

From the beginning of time to the 1950's, polio was a horrible disease that could paralyze you (1/200), give you menengitis (1/25), or flu like symptoms that went away (1/4), or be asymptomatic (75/100). Life wasn't shut down before the '60's when widespread vaccinations occurred after being discovered by Salk in 1953. It took several tries to finally eliminate polio in the US until 1979, Europe in 2002, SE Asia in 2014 and is still being fought in Africa. Polio is much worse than Covid-19.

Polio did shut down some areas of the U.S. for periods of time. My mother tells me that when she was young (in the 1930s) schools and factories in her town shut down because of polio for months at a time. She was told she could not leave her yard and if she did her parents would be out in jail.

The 1918 flu also shut down many areas and the cities that shut down had much fewer deaths from the flu.

 

[Midpack]

From the beginning of time to the 1950's, polio was a horrible disease that could paralyze you (1/200), give you menengitis (1/25), or flu like symptoms that went away (1/4), or be asymptomatic (75/100). Life wasn't shut down before the '60's when widespread vaccinations occurred after being discovered by Salk in 1953. It took several tries to finally eliminate polio in the US until 1979, Europe in 2002, SE Asia in 2014 and is still being fought in Africa. Polio is much worse than Covid-19.

Probably doesn't have any bearing but both target specific, if dramatically different, age groups: COVID-19 seems especially lethal for the elderly, polio for the young.

 

[USGrant1962]

Polio did shut down some areas of the U.S. for periods of time. My mother tells me that when she was young (in the 1930s) schools and factories in her town shut down because of polio for months at a time. She was told she could not leave her yard and if she did her parents would be out in jail.

The 1918 flu also shut down many areas and the cities that shut down had much fewer deaths from the flu.

Yup, when there were outbreaks that specific area was shut down, not the whole country.

 

[Tekward]

Easing COVID Restrictions - We Can Hope

I appreciate that it is not "one size fits all."

"According to the UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Washington could cross that threshold the week of May 18. Estimates for other states range from as early as May 4 to as late as the end of June, based on the local status of the epidemic."

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...an-start-safely-reopening-the-week-of-may-18/

 

[Klubbie]

I am appreciative of the history lesson on polio and other outbreaks such as the 1918 Spanish Flu. I have wondered how we managed to get through those situations without shutting down the world, but it does not seem that was the case.

One of the things I have been wondering the last day or two is "does it even matter" if we "open" the economy back up. The hardest hit sectors are going to be in entertainment. Restaurants, movies, events at large venues. Those things are not going to be opened back up, or if they are will be severely neutered and their experiences changed so that they are no longer enjoyable. Case in point - I have zero desire to go to a restaurant with some type of Plexiglas divider at my table while wearing a mask sitting across from my wife doing the same. I suspect I am not alone in that feeling. That just sounds like a terrible experience that I want no part of. I suspect those types of experiences are going to be the norm for a long while for much of the severely damaged sections of the economy that are currently closed.

So if we "open things back up" again, what does it even mean? Does it even matter? If the experiences are just.....not worth having I don't see it mattering much when combined with the overall level of fear that exists.

I am not really looking for answers, but asking more rhetorically.

 

[Clone]

I was excited a couple days ago to learn that my brother could use some help hanging and finishing about 40 sheets of drywall. We still had the drywall jack, texture spray gun, and all the tools loaded up from when we redid part of the place in snowbird country. But as we got deeper into it, we mutually decided that it was in violation of some of the shelter-at-home suggestions. And SIL was mildly against it. So even though we could have helped on the project, and maintained distancing, we decided to wait a week or ten days and see where things are at. It was a bit strange how I was worked up and looking forward to taking on that project!

So, when things do 'officially' open up a bit, we will probably go take on that project. Nothing really changes as far as the distancing and such, but (as the politicians say) the optics are better. I suspect that part of the lifting of restrictions will result in certain demographics going back to work and/or socializing, while (hopefully) the more vulnerable are able to continue to shelter and distance without being socially traumatized. I suspect that we may see a cultural shift that allows folks to wear a mask out in public without getting the stink-eye.

 

[Midpack]

I am appreciative of the history lesson on polio and other outbreaks such as the 1918 Spanish Flu. I have wondered how we managed to get through those situations without shutting down the world, but it does not seem that was the case.

One of the things I have been wondering the last day or two is "does it even matter" if we "open" the economy back up. The hardest hit sectors are going to be in entertainment. Restaurants, movies, events at large venues. Those things are not going to be opened back up, or if they are will be severely neutered and their experiences changed so that they are no longer enjoyable. Case in point - I have zero desire to go to a restaurant with some type of Plexiglas divider at my table while wearing a mask sitting across from my wife doing the same. I suspect I am not alone in that feeling. That just sounds like a terrible experience that I want no part of. I suspect those types of experiences are going to be the norm for a long while for much of the severely damaged sections of the economy that are currently closed.

So if we "open things back up" again, what does it even mean? Does it even matter? If the experiences are just.....not worth having I don't see it mattering much when combined with the overall level of fear that exists.

I am not really looking for answers, but asking more rhetorically.

Some people will go back to restaurants, bars, non essential shopping, parties, haircuts, dentists, concerts, movies, attend sports, etc. as soon as allowed (if not before), regardless of how those experiences are changed. Some may never be comfortable, hopefully the most vulnerable, and that’s their choice. Most will probably fall along the continuum between both extremes. Reopening (in stages) will “mean” different things to different people, as with most of life’s experiences. There’s no one right answer, all are right for each individual.

 

[Ready]

The unique thing about this pandemic is the ability to track the infection and death rate across the entire country in live time and then post it on cable news networks in the format of a scoreboard that you can watch 24 hours a day if you choose to.

I think a lot of people who begin to eat out in restaurants again and mix in with the general public will be watching the board to see the numbers. If reopening the economy causes a huge spike, it may mean another long lockdown. Time will tell. I hope not.

 

[BeachOrCity]

Two things are clear:
1. The stay at home will be ending within weeks in many locations where there are not enough: Tests, Tracing, PPE, and Ventilators.
2. This restart is highly likely going to be a complete cluster in terms of new infections which will play out over many months.

I am very fearful for the USA in a way that I was not after .com, 9/11, and the GFC.

 

[RAE]

Two things are clear:
1. The stay at home will be ending within weeks in many locations where there are not enough: Tests, Tracing, PPE, and Ventilators.
2. This restart is highly likely going to be a complete cluster in terms of new infections which will play out over many months..

Yeah, the state governors are under a lot of pressure to get the economy back on track, and that pressure will only grow stronger in the coming weeks. But it's a good bet that relaxing restrictions too early will result in a second wave of infections in a couple months or so. It's a tough call for the governors, and I would not want to be in their shoes right now. Either way they go, they'll be criticized. And either way they go, people will end up being hurt, and some will likely die prematurely.

 

[brewer12345]

Yeah, the state governors are under a lot of pressure to get the economy back on track, and that pressure will only grow stronger in the coming weeks. But it's a good bet that relaxing restrictions too early will result in a second wave of infections in a couple months or so. It's a tough call for the governors, and I would not want to be in their shoes right now. Either way they go, they'll be criticized. And either way they go, people will end up being hurt, and some will likely die prematurely.

I guess I wonder why it would take two months for the second wave to become obvious. Average new infected person become symptomatic in a week or less, right? If we are paying attention and if we are testing (latter is suspect, but still), why wouldn't we figure it out in a month?

 

[MRG]

I guess I wonder why it would take two months for the second wave to become obvious. Average new infected person become symptomatic in a week or less, right? If we are paying attention and if we are testing (latter is suspect, but still), why wouldn't we figure it out in a month?

Denial.

 

[Ready]

My concern would be if we do see a rapid increase in new cases after things reopen, how likely is it that our Governors will respond quickly to shut things down again amidst this new wave of protests to reopen the economy?

 

[Tiger8693]

It is going to create some big issues in a month or two when businesses reopen and their employees refuse to take the pay cut to return to work. Happy times for employment lawyers.

DW is currently signed up for unemployment, but has yet tight anything as her reduced hours put her over the limit offerings. If you make $1 more than the maximum benefit for your state, you do not get any of the $600 federal adder.

For those that do get it, once you have work "available", ie, your work opens back up, your benefits, along with the $600 adder, will be stopped. You have to certify every week, and companies notify if they allow you to come back.

 

[aiken]

Two things are clear:
1. The stay at home will be ending within weeks in many locations where there are not enough: Tests, Tracing, PPE, and Ventilators.
2. This restart is highly likely going to be a complete cluster in terms of new infections which will play out over many months.

I am very fearful for the USA in a way that I was not after .com, 9/11, and the GFC.

The other thing that is clear...if we continue this lockdown mentality we'll soon be in a Great Depression which will have disastrous consequences for public health.

 

[Midpack]

My concern would be if we do see a rapid increase in new cases after things reopen, how likely is it that our Governors will respond quickly to shut things down again amidst this new wave of protests to reopen the economy?

There were bound to be protesters, but how many are they compared to the population? If states reopen, and a second wave spikes the curve and overwhelms health care resources, I suspect there will then be protestors demanding governors SHUT THINGS DOWN - if they don’t start as soon as reopening is announced! IOW I don’t think protesters have any influence until it’s a much larger crowd.

 

[Aerides]

I guess I wonder why it would take two months for the second wave to become obvious. Average new infected person become symptomatic in a week or less, right? If we are paying attention and if we are testing (latter is suspect, but still), why wouldn't we figure it out in a month?

I don't think it'll take that long.

If we go back to "old normal", and maintain only current testing, I think it's gonna be kinda like setting the clock back to early March. We now know there were plenty of "early" cases circulating among us.

We also know there are unknown cases out there, folks who think they don't have it. And plenty of people ready to rush back to their old ways of doing things, and those two groups will meet pretty quickly.

 

[GravitySucks]

NY State parks are open, but the playground equipment is roped off.
I took my favorite little disease vector to the state park yesterday, county park planned on Monday. Lots of space, never got within 10 feet of another group.
DD the hairdresser has people asking her to freelance in their or her home. No chance!

Go to work mainly. Also go to Barber, Bars, and camping which are all shut down by the order. A lot of people out of work and the UE system is messed up so people aren't getting paid yet. Also schools shut down the rest of the year and so are play grounds and State parks so parents are going crazy having the kids in the house all day.

 

[Midpack]

I don't think it'll take that long.

If we go back to "old normal", and maintain only current testing, I think it's gonna be kinda like setting the clock back to early March. We now know there were plenty of "early" cases circulating among us.

We also know there are unknown cases out there, folks who think they don't have it. And plenty of people ready to rush back to their old ways of doing things, and those two groups will meet pretty quickly.

+1. Even the countries who were successful early on are seeing second waves BUT they’re testing, tracing and reacting and not letting new cases grow uncontrolled. You’d think we’d learn from those who have been more successful...but that’s not clear yet. On the bright side, I saw more specific questions and answers about testing and tracing on the morning shows. Dr Birx noted in the range of 500,000 to 750,000 per day may be needed for the US. Probably not current but I thought I read the US was at about 150,000 per day. And some of the successful countries have nearly mandatory contact tracing, where I hear the Google-Apple app is voluntary and a month away?

 

[gwraigty]

My concern would be if we do see a rapid increase in new cases after things reopen, how likely is it that our Governors will respond quickly to shut things down again amidst this new wave of protests to reopen the economy?

That is a concern mentioned in the following article:

Lack of coronavirus testing makes return to normal life challenging in Ohio

Steve Millard, president and chief executive officer of the Greater Akron Chamber, said businesses want to reopen, but they’re also cautious about moving too fast.

“Our businesses will need to be able to plan ... figuring how fast they can scale up,” Millard said. “There must be a framework of expectations.”

Some businesses may remain closed longer than they need to and wait for supply chains to get geared up again.

Many business owners have found a way to reopen once, Millard said. But they cannot survive repeatedly opening and closing if Ohio sees waves of coronavirus reappear.

 

[aaronc879]

NY State parks are open, but the playground equipment is roped off.
I took my favorite little disease vector to the state park yesterday, county park planned on Monday. Lots of space, never got within 10 feet of another group.
DD the hairdresser has people asking her to freelance in their or her home. No chance!

The reason our State Parks were shut down is because they were first open but with no staff. They didn't want staff to get sick so they got rid of the annual fee since there was no staff. However, no fee resulted in mass gatherings. There was no staff to empty garbage so there was garbage everywhere and a lot of people weren't picking up after their dogs. Too many people for social distancing to be possible. IMO they had no choice but to close the parks. Bad people ruin good things for good people.

 

[audreyh1]

There were bound to be protesters, but how many are they compared to the population? If states reopen, and a second wave spikes the curve and overwhelms health care resources, I suspect there will then be protestors demanding governors SHUT THINGS DOWN - if they don’t start as soon as reopening is announced! IOW I don’t think protesters have any influence until it’s a much larger crowd.

My impression is that the protesting groups are very very small. Yes, they are vocal, and get press attention.

 

[Tiger8693]

My impression is that the protesting groups are very very small. Yes, they are vocal, and get press attention.

It's early yet...

 

[audreyh1]

It's early yet...

It’s not like some opening up isn’t going to be happening very soon.....

 

[Turbo29]

From the beginning of time to the 1950's, polio was a horrible disease that could paralyze you (1/200), give you menengitis (1/25), or flu like symptoms that went away (1/4), or be asymptomatic (75/100). Life wasn't shut down before the '60's when widespread vaccinations occurred after being discovered by Salk in 1953. It took several tries to finally eliminate polio in the US until 1979, Europe in 2002, SE Asia in 2014 and is still being fought in Africa. Polio is much worse than Covid-19.

A show recently on PBS about this. Free to watch online.


"In the summer of 1950 fear gripped the residents of Wytheville, Virginia. Movie theaters shut down, baseball games were cancelled and panicky parents kept their children indoors — anything to keep them safe from an invisible invader. Outsiders sped through town with their windows rolled up and bandanas covering their faces. The ones who couldn’t escape the perpetrator were left paralyzed, and some died in the wake of the devastating and contagious virus. Polio had struck in Wytheville. The town was in the midst of a full-blown epidemic. That year alone, more than 33,000 Americans fell victim — half of them under the age of ten."


https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/polio/