COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?

[PatrickA5]

It was very enjoyable.
It was not very crowded, so distancing was no issue. Our servers had masks, but some servers and the bartender did not.

Can you asked to sit in the "masked" section?

 

[Fermion]

Our county with a population of 50,000 people has had 7 cases and 0 deaths.

So I guess that would be 0/100,000 deaths

 

[Midpack]

Our county population 1,093,901, within 1654 cases and 50 deaths of SARS-CoV-2. So 4.57 deaths per 100K. Compared to the US at 20.18 deaths per 100K. It’s clearer to me a one size fits all response isn’t appropriate...

We need to move to methodically reopen for everyone who isn’t high risk with PPE and distancing, and take steps to protect the vulnerable as we go. The vulnerable will have to make some personal choices.

Good article America Shouldn’t Have to Play by New York Rules

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown.html?searchResultPosition=1

For certain places, which haven't seen their peaks yet, or where there is a greater risk of an outbreak, it may be necessary to move more slowly. Their local governments should accommodate that need, perhaps with some additional local assistance from the federal government. But the idea that everyone nationwide must continue to adhere to the same restrictions and require the same government aid indefinitely is absurd and, again, will itself contribute to mortality.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

BTW, you tell me where I’m wrong, honest that’s great. I’m learning as I go like most, and I’ve been wrong in hindsight quite a few times. What do you recommend?

EDIT: And I’m not trying to provoke anyone. I’m trying to learn, I’ve made mistakes in hindsight and I’ve been reminded of aspects I hadn’t thought of. Take my thoughts with a grain of salt...

Midpack - Although I've already replied to your post, I just stumbled upon this earlier today. I think it shows some of the (growing) frustration with the current response and action plans: https://medium.com/@dneeleman/11-questions-every-american-should-be-asking-dr-891386a55d71

11 questions every American should be asking Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx and Governors making public policy before our economy suffers irreparable harm. We need answers now!

(Written by David Neeleman, Founder Jetblue Airways, Azul Brazilian Airlines, Co-Founder Westjet Airlines, shareholder TAP Air Portugal)

ETA: p.s. I appreciate not only those who agree with me, but also those who disagree. One of the best things about ER dot org is the things we can learn from each other! Note, what follows is not intended for Midpack, but rather us at large. What I rail about, and have even expressed in conversations with mods, is the belittling of others because they think differently. Perhaps that is because of my background - the first in my family to graduate from college, to break out of a traditional blue-collar life. I've seen plenty in industry and yes even here that think that they are better than the masses, and I rail against the mantra that it is up to them to somehow protect the unwashed and act as a managerial/administrative state. /Soapbox.

 

[Midpack]

Midpack - Although I've already replied to your post, I just stumbled upon this earlier today. I think it shows some of the (growing) frustration with the current response and action plans: https://medium.com/@dneeleman/11-questions-every-american-should-be-asking-dr-891386a55d71


(Written by David Neeleman, Founder Jetblue Airways, Azul Brazilian Airlines, Co-Founder Westjet Airlines, shareholder TAP Air Portugal)

ETA: p.s. I appreciate not only those who agree with me, but also those who disagree. One of the best things about ER dot org is the things we can learn from each other!

I may read it, but I’ve never heard of the source, Medium, and their banner doesn’t encourage me to read

“Anyone can publish on Medium per our Policies, but we don’t fact-check every story. For more info about the coronavirus, see cdc.gov.”

 

[donheff]

Our city with 650K has 231 deaths or 35.5 per 100K

 

[CardsFan]

Our county population is 402,000, with 593 cases and 37 deaths. Of note, over 1/2 of the deaths were in just one nursing home. There have been deaths in other nursing homes, so NH deaths may account for 2/3 to 3/4 of all deaths in the county.

Given all the discussions about co-morbidities, I am beginning to think the biggest one is residing in a NH.

 

[Corporateburnout]

Our county has 552 deaths or 73 per 100k but our town of 17k has 79 cases with 1 death.

 

[Corporateburnout]

Given all the discussions about co-morbidities, I am beginning to think the biggest one is residing in a NH.

+1

58% of deaths in our state are in nursing homes.

 

[Dtail]

Midpack - Although I've already replied to your post, I just stumbled upon this earlier today. I think it shows some of the (growing) frustration with the current response and action plans: https://medium.com/@dneeleman/11-questions-every-american-should-be-asking-dr-891386a55d71


(Written by David Neeleman, Founder Jetblue Airways, Azul Brazilian Airlines, Co-Founder Westjet Airlines, shareholder TAP Air Portugal)

ETA: p.s. I appreciate not only those who agree with me, but also those who disagree. One of the best things about ER dot org is the things we can learn from each other! Note, what follows is not intended for Midpack, but rather us at large. What I rail about, and have even expressed in conversations with mods, is the belittling of others because they think differently. Perhaps that is because of my background - the first in my family to graduate from college, to break out of a traditional blue-collar life. I've seen plenty in industry and yes even here that think that they are better than the masses, and I rail against the mantra that it is up to them to somehow protect the unwashed and act as a managerial/administrative state. /Soapbox.

I read the article and it has a lot of good thought provoking questions.
One tough area is in a work situation where there are compromised and non compromised folks.
Supposedly the purpose of wearing a mask is not to infect others, but the asymptomatic folks would likely not wear a mask due to lack of even knowing they have the virus.
So what happens to the compromised folks?

 

[Chuckanut]

Good article America Shouldn’t Have to Play by New York Rules

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown.html?searchResultPosition=1

Egads! Now I will have to add you to my list of Dangerous Radicals Who Infest This Site. More work for me. Thankfully I am stuck at home.

Hopefully, NYC will recover quickly.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I may read it, but I’ve never heard of the source, Medium, and their banner doesn’t encourage me to read

“Anyone can publish on Medium per our Policies, but we don’t fact-check every story. For more info about the coronavirus, see cdc.gov.”

Afraid of catching something?

From Time: https://time.com/37586/what-is-medium-medium-is-pretty-cool-thats-what/

Medium, a San Francisco startup founded in 2012, is notable for several things. Two of them are its founders: Ev Williams and Biz Stone, whose past endeavors include Twitter.

Another major fact about Medium is that it it’s a little tough to figure out. Stated in the most general possible fashion, it’s a web-based service that lets anyone publish articles online;
...
Me, I’ve been an occasional consumer of content posted on Medium, and I haven’t gotten any further than thinking of it as a place where worthwhile articles are sometimes available. That doesn’t narrow it down, either. But over the weekend, I contributed an article of my own to the site. If nothing else, it helped me understand Medium better. And understanding it better left me more impressed by it.
...
Medium — which I wanted to try anyhow — felt like a good spot for a one-off story that was long, fairly serious and not about tech. So I sat down and composed my story in the service’s built-in, browser-based word processor, which is beautifully done.

So, net net we have an article from the founder of Jet Blue...which you can either read, not read. So you are the horse, the story is the water. But, I don't think your eyes will be burned by reading his thoughts.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I read the article and it has a lot of good thought provoking questions.
One tough area is in a work situation where there are compromised and non compromised folks.
Supposedly the purpose of wearing a mask is not to infect others, but the asymptomatic folks would likely not wear a mask due to lack of even knowing they have the virus.
So what happens to the compromised folks?

Well, just thinking out loud: Instead of having an unemployment system that encourages everyone to stay home, we have a system (temporarily) that is more focused on those who are compromised. That is, we don't need the typical 25 year old to sit at home, but we might need to pay the 62 year old with serious diabetes to sit at home. Again, it is a question of focusing resources.

ETA: One of the things I picked up on - the need to have *better* masks (e.g. N95) for the compromised. I'm not sure I agree with the author on this (i.e. the non compromised would be able to identify the compromised because they (the compromised) would be wearing N95 masks). But the general idea of his post is that we need to be thinking differently than the current approach.

 

[MichaelB]

Nothing wrong with Medium, it just requires a bit more diligence by the reader. The opinion piece by David Neeleman is also fine IMO. They are reasonable questions.

 

[Midpack]

I read the article and it has a lot of good thought provoking questions.
One tough area is in a work situation where there are compromised and non compromised folks.
Supposedly the purpose of wearing a mask is not to infect others, but the asymptomatic folks would likely not wear a mask due to lack of even knowing they have the virus.
So what happens to the compromised folks?

Employers can force masks as of Mar 21, 2020. Employers have required and enforced PPE for more than 30 years I know of, and the EEOC has now provided specific guidance re: pandemics. There are limits on personal freedom where others are impacted, always have been...

12. During a pandemic, may an employer require its employees to wear personal protective equipment (e.g., face masks, gloves, or gowns) designed to reduce the transmission of pandemic infection?

Yes. An employer may require employees to wear personal protective equipment during a pandemic. However, where an employee with a disability needs a related reasonable accommodation under the ADA (e.g., non-latex gloves, or gowns designed for individuals who use wheelchairs), the employer should provide these, absent undue hardship.

https://www.eeoc.gov/laws/guidance/pandemic-preparedness-workplace-and-americans-disabilities-act

 

[gwraigty]

I read the article and it has a lot of good thought provoking questions.
One tough area is in a work situation where there are compromised and non compromised folks.
Supposedly the purpose of wearing a mask is not to infect others, but the asymptomatic folks would likely not wear a mask due to lack of even knowing they have the virus.
So what happens to the compromised folks?

In Ohio, masks are now mandated for all employees. Unless they work in an industry where it's illegal or unsafe to wear a mask. Or unless they have a health condition that they're not required to disclose to their employer that would make them ill if they wore a mask. Employers are supposed to accommodate compromised folks to a reasonable extent, such as letting them work from home if they can, or possibly calling them back to work last and letting them stay on unemployment longer.

Please don't yell at me. I don't make the rules.

 

[Aerides]

Well, just thinking out loud: Instead of having an unemployment system that encourages everyone to stay home, we have a system (temporarily) that is more focused on those who are compromised. That is, we don't need the typical 25 year old to sit at home, but we might need to pay the 62 year old with serious diabetes to sit at home. Again, it is a question of focusing resources.

Yes I said something similar a while back - some sort of expanded SSI/Medicare for those at high risk. It's also complicated though, if your 62 yo diabetic has a 55 year old healthy spouse - then it's trickier, because you have varying risk even in households.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Our county population 1,093,901, within 1654 cases and 50 deaths of SARS-CoV-2. So 4.57 deaths per 100K. Compared to the US at 20.18 deaths per 100K. It’s clearer to me a one size fits all response isn’t appropriate...

We need to move to methodically reopen for everyone who isn’t high risk with PPE and distancing, and take steps to protect the vulnerable as we go. The vulnerable will have to make some personal choices.

Good article America Shouldn’t Have to Play by New York Rules

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown.html?searchResultPosition=1

This is pretty much what I've been trying to say to you (and others). Another quote from the article:

No wonder so much of America has dwindling sympathy with the idea of prolonging lockdown conditions much further. The curves are flattening; hospital systems haven’t come close to being overwhelmed; Americans have adapted to new etiquettes of social distancing. Many of the worst Covid outbreaks outside New York (such as at Chicago’s Cook County Jail or the Smithfield Foods processing plant in Sioux Falls, S.D.) have specific causes that can be addressed without population-wide lockdowns.

Yet Americans are being told they must still play by New York rules — with all the hardships they entail — despite having neither New York’s living conditions nor New York’s health outcomes. This is bad medicine, misguided public policy, and horrible politics.

 

[GTFan]

So when we look at the country, and the danger associated with the virus - a systematic non-emotional approach would be one that doesn't treat all possible transmission vectors as equals, but concentrates on those that are the most problematic. So where are the cases coming from, and what are the transmission vectors based on actual experiences? Yes, someone has a chance of transmission while at a crowded beach, perhaps even after walking in sand that someone 60 minutes coughed on...but what is the probability of that event in comparison of where the vast majority of cases are coming from: crowded mass transit, close quarters requiring close touch w/health impaired (e.g. nursing home), and other similar possible vectors.

Agreed and this is the problem with our Gov Kemp's approach at reopening the entire state - his commandments override all local authorities for whatever reason, so none of them can implement further restrictions as needed.

Completely flies in the face of the party's stated interest in putting power into local hands as much as possible, but certainly not the first or last act of hypocrisy.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Yes I said something similar a while back - some sort of expanded SSI/Medicare for those at high risk. It's also complicated though, if your 62 yo diabetic has a 55 year old healthy spouse - then it's trickier, because you have varying risk even in households.

Agreed. No perfect solution here. From a personal perspective, I was worried that my sons school would reopen (NY just announced that they would remain online only for the remainder of the year). Why? Because I have hyper-tension and am in that 60+ category. But my fear might not be best in terms of society. I am still working from home with my full salary, but many others are not. (I am also somewhat biased on this because I think even if he DID go back to physical school - they aren't doing regents and just about ALL they would be doing at this point in the year is regent test prep. Also he is a senior so...)

All my somewhat feeble mind knows is that a policy of "We are going to close all the beaches because you clowns aren't listening" and where they arrest a mom because she took her kids to a playground...will NOT work. It will result in public resentment of those wielding power. We are seeing the backlash all across the country, and that tide is rising quickly.

 

[garyt]

Sometimes there are hour waits for a popular ride. What will the line look like with the 6ft distance rule?

That's what I was thinking. I haven't been to an amusement park in years and have no intention of going again but I just remember some lines and with 6 foot spacing would be impossible. Even at 50% capacity.

 

[Midpack]

This is pretty much what I've been trying to say to you (and others). Another quote from the article:

We’re in heated agreement at least broadly... My understanding continues to evolve. I’ve posted dozens of times (if not more), even started threads consistent with “We need to move to methodically reopen for everyone who isn’t high risk with PPE and distancing, and take steps to protect the vulnerable as we go. The vulnerable will have to make some personal choices.”

 

[Midpack]

Nothing wrong with Medium, it just requires a bit more diligence by the reader. The opinion piece by David Neeleman is also fine IMO. They are reasonable questions.

I didn’t say I disagreed with Medium or Neeleman. I’d never heard of Medium and the link prefaced with ‘anyone can post and we may not fact check.’ That’s all I was noting.

I can’t read everything so I rely first on sources with some track record of credibility, and that changes over time. I am definitely open to new unfamiliar sources, but I have to take the time to look into their history, bias, etc. That takes far more time than reading the article, and I have to satisfy myself - not take someone else’s word for it.

Medium aside. Too many people just find sources that support what they already believe and post them - that can be misleading or worse. It’s been in my sig line below for years. We suffer from more of that than ever these days. Not all, but there are many sources linked here that come from orgs with a definite agenda...we shouldn’t look into that?

Time to put the iPad aside for a while and get outside...

 

[gwraigty]

All my somewhat feeble mind knows is that a policy of "We are going to close all the beaches because you clowns aren't listening" and where they arrest a mom because she took her kids to a playground...will NOT work. It will result in public resentment of those wielding power. We are seeing the backlash all across the country, and that tide is rising quickly.

The protests in Ohio are getting uglier. Yesterday a woman bullied a reporter and behaved in a threatening way because the reporter was wearing a mask. Protesters tried to open a window in the Statehouse and state police in riot gear had to be deployed to move them away from the windows. No matter anyone's opinions on the various issues, this escalating behavior from protesters is not OK.

Do I risk being confronted by someone for wearing a mask? Or for not wearing a mask? Does it depend on the store I'm in? Does it depend on how many are wearing masks vs. not wearing masks? I saw 2 women walking together outside this morning. One was on the sidewalk and she was wearing a mask. The other was walking through the middle of the tree lawns and she wasn't wearing a mask. Maybe mask wearing is now required when you're outside walking on the sidewalk, but not when you're walking on grass. Did I miss the press conference on that? What are the rules? I can't keep track anymore because they change daily. Oops, make that hourly. All I know for sure right now is that I should stay away from windows.

 

[MichaelB]

I didn’t say I disagreed with Medium or Neeleman. I’d never heard of Medium and the link prefaced with ‘anyone can post and we may not fact check.’ That’s all I was noting.

I can’t read everything so I rely first on sources with some track record of credibility, and that changes over time. I am definitely open to new unfamiliar sources, but I have to take the time to look into their history, bias, etc. That takes far more time than reading the article, and I have to satisfy myself - not take someone else’s word for it.

Medium aside. Too many people just find sources that support what they already believe and post them - that can be misleading or worse. It’s been in my sig line below for years. We suffer from more of that than ever these days. Not all, but there are many sources linked here that come from orgs with a definite agenda...we shouldn’t look into that?

Time to put the iPad aside for a while and get outside...

No disagreement with this.

IMO the continued search for more expert opinion is fruitless. We have an abundance of opinion but there simply is not enough basic data yet available, no matter how hard we look. There is no right choice, and we do not know when we will have enough knowledge to determine the better course of action. For now, any choice we make will be sub-optimal and the outcome uncertain.