This is super helpful information, thanks for sharing. A good reality check. Certainly jives with the experience of the older members of my family in recent years.
One big caveat is that IIRC costs for LTC (outside the home) have been rising much faster than general inflation. Found one source claiming it's about 3x as much (
https://insurancenewsnet.com/innarticle/LTC-Costs-Continue-Outpacing-Inflation-a-508990) . So when Marrota says "Assuming a 3% return over inflation..." he's being optimistic IMO. If average overall inflation is 2%,
LTC inflation could be more like 6%, so one's investment return would need to be in the range of 9-10% annually to have the 300K LTC nest egg keep pace. It's do-able, but not without a fair amount of volatility risk (unless fixed income yields get to that point). You'd hate for your nest egg to be down in a bear market when you need the money. An alternative would be to have a larger LTC nest egg and invest more conservatively. Then there's the question in my mind of whether many LTC facilities will even continue to exist in 30 years, given demographic and labor trends. There are no easy answers.