Dow 35,000

[cyber888]

I know there is a thread here entitled ‘Dow 30,000’. Now we are around Dow 31,000 and it’s still January 2021. What’s your thoughts on Dow 35,000 by year end? Or even beyond 35,000?

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

I think we get to Dow 35000. Beyond that, I am less bullish. It wouldn't surprise me if we had a big correction this year. But it's all guesswork.

 

[Car-Guy]

It may drop (correct) before it hits 35k but I suspect it will happen and probably before year end.

 

[timbervest]

At 3% average annual growth the Dow will be at 35,000 in five years. I think it will happen much earlier.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

Seems less likely because Apple had a 4-for-1 stock split this year.

Note: I don't actually have an opinion on whether Apple will continue to outperform; I am really just making comment on the stupidity of how the DJIA is calculated.

 

[frayne]

I don't see much movement until the current administration gets their feet on the ground and the covid situation under some semblance of control. See my tag line.

 

[steelyman]

I don't see much movement until the current administration gets their feet on the ground and the covid situation under some semblance of control.

That’d be fine with me. We’ve been subjected to whipsaw events and reactions for long enough. Time for a breather.

 

[MichaelB]

Let’s all make an effort to keep politics out of the discussion.

 

[W2R]

I know there is a thread here entitled ‘Dow 30,000’. Now we are around Dow 31,000 and it’s still January 2021. What’s your thoughts on Dow 35,000 by year end? Or even beyond 35,000?

I have no idea! Honestly I NEVER thought the Dow would reach 31,000 this year, and yet here we are. It's obvious to me that my crystal ball desperately needs a tune-up.

When I was a little girl, I remember the Dow breaking into the 400's. I was about six years old, I suppose. I thought the Dow exceeding 400 was pretty exciting, even though I had no clue as to why the grown-ups were so thrilled!

 

[38Chevy454]

All it would take is an approximate 15% gain to reach 31,000. I think that is possible.

 

[audreyh1]

Seems less likely because Apple had a 4-for-1 stock split this year.

Note: I don't actually have an opinion on whether Apple will continue to outperform; I am really just making comment on the stupidity of how the DJIA is calculated.

You mean last year?

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

You mean last year?

Yes. I am still writing 2020 on my checks, too!

 

[DrRoy]

I can live with it.

 

[Bigdawg]

All it would take is an approximate 15% gain to reach 31,000. I think that is possible.

You mean 35,000 right? We are already at 31,000.

 

[street]

Just looked at my numbers for the last 4.5 years in ER. I averaged 13% gains per year in the last 4.5 years. If I had a 13% growth for 2021 that would throw the DJIA over 35000 mark.

Who knows what will happen but I do hope in the next bear market, it doesn't last a couple of years. That would be depressing to say the least.

 

[38Chevy454]

All it would take is an approximate 15% gain to reach 31,000. I think that is possible.

You mean 35,000 right? We are already at 31,000.

Yes, meant 35,000. Won't let me go back and edit now.

 

[MarieIG]

Is a spike possible? IMO, yes.

But I suspect a number of US companies, for example those in the oil industry, are going to have a lot to digest the next few years. Will tech be able to make up for that? I never had a crystal ball, but I do have concerns.

 

[jurgs01]

Since the US Dollar is your denominator, the sky is the limit!

 

[Closet_Gamer]

Sadly, I think 2021 is starting to look like 2020 redux.

The logistical realities of getting the vaccines out is starting to hit home.

The variants are introducing another critical uncertainty. The UK govt just said the new variant most prevalent here might be 30% more lethal. Another variant shows some likelihood that it will evade the vaccine, at least to some extent.

Healthcare systems seem to be really straining under the load which is going to create real pressure to sustain tighter lockdowns.

Because I live abroad, I'm particularly attuned to global travel and the trend there is tightening not relaxing, further compounding problems for what had been a huge portion of the economy.

The above probably portends a slow return to office work. Our megacorp had already called the play that there would be no return to the office through June of 2021. I'm betting its through the EOY now. That simply crushes local businesses in the area and puts strain on the local tax system.

In that context a lot -- too much -- will depend on government largesse to sustain things economically.

If I would a trading type who took action on "buy the rumor, sell the news" it would be time to sell. The news is coming in and its not great.

The values in my accounts make me smile ... but mentally I'm just writing this all down 20% as I think its etheral.

 

[SmallCityDave]

Since the US Dollar is your denominator, the sky is the limit!

That's a good way to look at it.


Great news Dow hit's 35,000 and in other news a gallon of gas is $5 as is a gallon of milk.

 

[jurgs01]

While not perfect, it is a good practice to see whether your stock portfolio is gaining value in terms of gold (or a basket of chosen commodities that tend to signal inflation).

 

[nap470]

When I was a little girl, I remember the Dow breaking into the 400's. I was about six years old, I suppose. I thought the Dow exceeding 400 was pretty exciting, even though I had no clue as to why the grown-ups were so thrilled!

I need the "Back to the Future" DeLorean to drop about $100K in the stock market at DJIA 400!

 

[W2R]

I need the "Back to the Future" DeLorean to drop about $100K in the stock market at DJIA 400!

Well, at that age I was only getting 10 cents/week for my allowance, so $100K was a bit more than I could handle. It would be many decades before I could afford to invest. That DeLorean might have helped.

I bought one ten cent comic book every week with my allowance, instead. And like so many things, my box of comic books somehow disappeared into the mists of time.

I told my teacher at school how excited I was by the Dow breaking 400, and she looked at me like I was from outer space.

 

[street]

^ Lol I like that.

 

[cyber888]

hey guys, what's your asset allocation now - aggressive or conservative ?