DOW heading 20K !

frayne said:
Who would have thunk and does anyone have the thread started earlier in the year predicting where the DOW might end 2016 ?

The way things are going I may have to rebalance before the end of 2016.
Click to expand...

I found this one. I'm don't think there was one for the DOW specifically for 2016. Nothing more comes up searching on titles with 2016, prediction, or DOW
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/poll-s-and-p-500-2016-a-80149.html
Let's see if utrecht wins that one!

You also started this thread, on a sober note, at the beginning of this year - http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/rocky-start-of-2016-a-80385.html.

And early in the year there was a thread about DOW 6000 predicted for this year by Harry Dent. http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/dow-6000-a-80655.html

Well, there was a poll about predicting the DOW on 6/27/16! Oh, that was because of the Brexit vote. http://www.early-retirement.org/for...-dow-land-end-of-trading-6-27-16-a-82473.html
 
Last edited:
I love days like this, I cheer on all my stocks. GO TEAM GO! It's fun to watch. I know it can turn down tomorrow but I enjoy the stock market and I'm still in accumulation stage.
Click to expand...

I also love to root for the $ team. I am rather beyond accumulation and will RE in just under 4 months. This run up is a great pad to the NW. I plan to take some off the table soon. This is NOT a prediction, but it would be great if following the 2 year consolidation the market has just had and the subsequent breakout, it behaves the way it did after the 1994 consolidation.
 
DrRoy said:
I also love to root for the $ team. I am rather beyond accumulation and will RE in just under 4 months. This run up is a great pad to the NW. I plan to take some off the table soon. This is NOT a prediction, but it would be great if following the 2 year consolidation the market has just had and the subsequent breakout, it behaves the way it did after the 1994 consolidation.
Click to expand...

I wish. It just feels more like 1999 to me, especially with yesterday's huge jump. This is feeling like a short squeeze and way too many people rushing in to buy as things go higher.

It's probably that CAPE10 approaching 28 that's making me nervous. We are already at a post 2002 peak, beating the May through Oct 2007 numbers and early 2004 numbers. Although it was above that level most of the later 90s.

CAPE10 of 27.72 puts us right at Dec 1996. Do you think we'll have another 4 year run to CAPE10 above 40? Or will another 2008 happen first? http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ You can click on table by month to get details.
 
Last edited:
It is fun to watch. Feels like bubble territory but bubbles can grow for years before they pop. Why oh why can't the collective genius hereabouts predict the time of the downturn. :(
 
It's always more fun to feel richer at the end of the day. Realistically, though, I hope we are all prepared for when (not if) it goes down.
 
I just remember how I felt in early 2000 and then in late 2000. I'm askeered!
 
datuck said:
I just remember how I felt in early 2000 and then in late 2000. I'm askeered!
Click to expand...

if you are truly askeered, then re-examine your AA. Remember, it's not about "if", it's about "when".
 
audreyh1 said:
I wish. It just feels more like 1999 to me, especially with yesterday's huge jump. This is feeling like a short squeeze and way too many people rushing in to buy as things go higher.

It's probably that CAPE10 approaching 28 that's making me nervous. We are already at a post 2002 peak, beating the May through Oct 2007 numbers and early 2004 numbers. Although it was above that level most of the later 90s.

CAPE10 of 27.72 puts us right at Dec 1996. Do you think we'll have another 4 year run to CAPE10 above 40? Or will another 2008 happen first? Shiller PE Ratio You can click on table by month to get details.
Click to expand...


I think there are a lot of 'ifs' being priced in right now.... but if a good number of the come to pass then profits of all companies that make money will go up... and companies with a lot of cash overseas will be bringing them back and will probably distribute a good chunk....


That is the one thing that I do not like about CAPE10.... it is a look back of 10 years and does not take into account what might be happening going forward....
 
Let it run !!
Far be it from me to stand in the way of exuberance. My entry point is so low that it could ride out a pullback anywhere along the line here. I'm a firm believer in the Santa Claus Rally, the January Effect, and the Super Bowl Indicator and will be intently watching each of them play out !

Keep a Mental Stop Loss in mind, and watch out for a Stampede at the Exit.
 
Last edited:
The contrarian in me is screaming " Look out. Get your 2017 spending cash out NOW!".

But, the ongoing [-]war on savers[/-] low interest rate policy, tells me that this may continue though with some corrections here and there.
 
Texas Proud said:
I think there are a lot of 'ifs' being priced in right now.... but if a good number of the come to pass then profits of all companies that make money will go up... and companies with a lot of cash overseas will be bringing them back and will probably distribute a good chunk....


That is the one thing that I do not like about CAPE10.... it is a look back of 10 years and does not take into account what might be happening going forward....
Click to expand...
It takes very little 10 year interest rise from here to make mortgage loans become a lot more expensive, and suddenly houses are not as affordable and the housing market slows down and this will affect the economy in a broad way. Rates going up does eventually hurt stocks, that is just the way it is.

And companies making more is great, but with their costs of business going up maybe they won't be in quite the sweet spot. Corporate profits have already been at historic highs with labor prices down and low interest rates for a long time. But inflation ticks up, interest rates go up a bit more, very low unemployment already and they've already reduced their manpower tremendously, so it costs them relatively more to bring in a few more workers, money is not so cheap to finance those share buybacks. It's not that great an outlook IMO. I think profits will start to be squeezed.

The markets ignore a lot of possibilities/consequences often.
 
audreyh1 said:
It takes very little 10 year interest rise from here to make mortgage loans become a lot more expensive, and suddenly houses are not as affordable and the housing market slows down and this will affect the economy in a broad way. Rates going up does eventually hurt stocks, that is just the way it is.......
Click to expand...

Anecdotal and a tiny sample size, but we have loans out on two places - a new construction upper end home and a midrange flip. Both of them had not sold with the alacrity expected, though the midrange place is now due to close 1/4/2017. Feels like we hit a real estate slowdown in advance of a potential interest rise.

We had a buy order in for VOO at 15% off its prior year high - looks like that will expire unfilled.
 
Chuckanut said:
The contrarian in me is screaming " Look out. Get your 2017 spending cash out NOW!".

But, the ongoing [-]war on savers[/-] low interest rate policy, tells me that this may continue though with some corrections here and there.
Click to expand...

I think that interest rate policy is a changing. Inflation has normalized back to Fed targets, GDP is up, the Fed has made it clear that their rate will rise next week, the markets will probably anticipate more tightening next year which will cause other rates to rise.
 
calmloki said:
Anecdotal and a tiny sample size, but we have loans out on two places - a new construction upper end home and a midrange flip. Both of them had not sold with the alacrity expected, though the midrange place is now due to close 1/4/2017. Feels like we hit a real estate slowdown in advance of a potential interest rise.

We had a buy order in for VOO at 15% off its prior year high - looks like that will expire unfilled.
Click to expand...

Mortgage rates are up sharply in the last 60 days. Big banks are all over 4 percent on 30 year fixed mortgages, with most circling near 4.25 percent. The chilling effect is already being felt in the housing market.
 
I have not a lot 140,000 sitting on the sidelines waiting for mid February . Gut feeling says we will see a correction then .
 
I just hope for a chance to pull my annual withdrawal out in early Jan with some rebalancing, that even after this month's distributions are paid probably means trimming some equities at these prices.

The annual withdrawal will already be covered with distributions paid to cash. Estimated distributions looks like should do it.

Knock on wood!!!
 
Usually make my distributions monthly. I wonder if this year I should pull it all out in January since we are at an all time high. Buy low...sell high....right?:flowers::D
 
One has to wonder, IMO, how much longer large cap US stocks can keep leading the entire market. Almost time to do some redistribution, and yet again it's time to trim large cap domestic while purchasing other equity classes.

Frankly this reminds me of the run-up before the bear market of 2000-01. Large cap domestic was destroying all other equity asset classes for a long time during that raging bull.... and after the end of said Ursa Major and the recovery began in 2002, small caps, emerging markets and (for a while) REITs caught fire.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

John Galt III
Long Wait Time to get Appointment with Dermatologist
2 3
Replies
53
Views
2K
latexman
latexman
Jerry1
Taxes & SS - Live and Learn
2
Replies
35
Views
3K
SevenUp
SevenUp
P
Withholding for IRA withdrawals
Replies
3
Views
532
Retiired
Retiired
sengsational
Dumbest Booking Error
2 3
Replies
60
Views
3K
sengsational
sengsational
T
Hello to all from MrTeight…..
Replies
14
Views
1K
MarieIG
M

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom