This thread reminds me of the threads and posts in October of 2007 and the flak I encountered when a member posted that he was already 100% in stocks and wished he had more money to invest after the “correction” of the first few days of October — the stock market had fallen in the summer about 10% and then rose back to the level it had been and began to fall off in October and I merely posted that is how markets top, when everyone who wants to buy has their stock quota. By 2009 most of the confidence had been eroded by the large losses, however the bond component really kept portfolios from disaster. There is an extreme confidence in stocks issued throughout this thread that is interesting to me from a investment indicator view. The anguish of 2009 has been utterly vanquished, though our hero’s at the Federal Reserve still bear the weight of 4.5 Trillion in debt purchased (equal to 60% of all US government debt issued at our optimistic outlook of October 2007) they used to pull us upon their shoulders from the mortgage mania investing malaise, and no dispersal of the burden of that debt appears to be forthcoming.
I am not predicting anything nor changing my investing portfolio any more than I had since last fall, however since 1981 we have lived in one of the truly great investing periods of all times, there have been major declines to be sure but the stock losses were met with new all time highs in every case in a very intermediate investing term with steadily falling interest rates and declining inflation along the way to always cushion a portfolio that was invested in stocks/bonds. If you do not have retirement money it is pretty much indicative as having been unable to save as virtually any investment style with even a very moderate risk profile has seen positive returns to inflation.
With good fortune for us all this will continue for another 37 years, for if there is another downturn, I don’t know if the FED will have a free hand to reach down and purchase 8 trillion of bonds to save us as they did in 2009. If Atlas shrugs it will be a new world and it will no longer be the FED’s problem.