Early Warning on the Economy?

[Jimonlimon]

It might be that going to Salem once in October is enough for life.

 

[Healthy Lifestyle]

I get sticker shock when I see highly inflated prices on the latest sportswear/workout clothing styles in stores like Dicks Sporting Goods, etc.
I can afford these prices but have not made any recent purchases.

 

[NewEnglander]

In my limited experience, lodging increases have outpaced dining. Most nicer hotels have far higher prices in their high seasons than 2019. Like...double. And decent 3* places charging much more than ever before. Recently had to pay $300 for a Residence Inn, in a non tourist area, and definitely not high season for it!

There is a lot of room for hotel prices to fall down to earth.

We found the same. In Sept we found that hotels had increased prices considerably especially on weekends. Even a crappy Microtel in Amsterdam NY that usually costs about $125 per night was charging over $300 for Friday and Saturday nights! We found any area within about 1.5 hours of NYC doubles to triples their Friday and Saturday night fares. So we've been arranging trips for Sundays through Thursday whenever we can. When we did stay over weekends we noticed that the hotels we stayed in were less crowded on the weekends than they were mid week. It seems others don't like the 2-3x increases either.

 

[Toocold]

We've definitely changed our eating habits. We used to go to one of our favorite restaurants to eat salad every week, and they kept raising the prices. Now we'll likely go once next summer. Instead, we just eat Sam's club salad.

Last weekend, we decided to celebrate at our favorite Hibachi place, where we are willing to spend more money. It went up 50% and the food / show was not as good. Crossing yet another one off my list.

There are still some good deals, like a retro theater at $5 per ticket with $5 popcorn. We also decided to eat at McDonald yesterday. We got 2 Big Macs, Large Fries, Cone, and 2 waters for $5, because there was a get free Big Macs with a purchase of $1. We just had to order twice.

 

[marko]

In my limited experience, lodging increases have outpaced dining. Most nicer hotels have far higher prices in their high seasons than 2019. Like...double. And decent 3* places charging much more than ever before. Recently had to pay $300 for a Residence Inn, in a non tourist area, and definitely not high season for it!

There is a lot of room for hotel prices to fall down to earth.

The few local restaurants I frequent are not doing the tip add or 3% service fee shenanigans, and seem to be doing fine, but I don't go often enough, or at prime time, or notice!

True, but my reference was about an Airbnb owner who is still fully booked but found people staying shorter periods of time and what used to require a one year ahead reservation is now available with just a few weeks notice.

 

[karen1972]

Food and housing is surely taking a toll on American wallet. Especially for those that rent. I'm just starting to see a bit of give in the rental market, like 1 month free at a few select places that have too many openings, but still no price break on rent. until rent drops a bit I don't see how people can continue to spend at those levels for wants, not needs.

AirbnB of course has its own issues, way too many complaints about the cleaning fees and cleaning requirements. However with airline prices, rental cars, and hotels, you have to short it somewhere.


In our own area, people are not going out as much but its more due to quality/staffing issues. In general there is a pretty big consensus that the food quality has gone way down, prices have gone up and service has gone down, making it really hard to justify going out.

 

[GravitySucks]

Restaurants here seem to be full on weekends and as busy as ever weekdays.

We, however, don’t eat out near as often. I always cooked but Covid put the nail in the coffin for me going to a steak house as I found I can do better for much less.

Still like to go out for special meal. Fish fry (not doing that at home). Sushi, Italian, Chinese etc.

 

[dixonge]

Restaurant prices have skyrocketed.
<snip>
You can’t keep hiking prices and expect nobody to notice.

We were on vacation last week at HHI, and restaurant prices were noticeably higher everywhere. Seemed like restaurants hiked drink and appetizer prices first, now entrees and desserts are up too.<snip>
https://www.restaurantbusinessonline.com/financing/restaurant-menu-price-inflation-highest-40-years

Good news - National Restaurant Association shows that price inflation *rate* is pretty much back down to normal after a spike last year:

https://restaurant.org/research-and...sts-notebook/economic-indicators/menu-prices/

One psychological note: I have noticed that myself (and *especially* DW) tend to compare prices based on some long-gone price that will probably never be seen again. We are somewhat aware that inflation exists, but we often act like it doesn't, or shouldn't. We grate at current prices, but our comparison point is often 10-20 years ago. We *know* that inflation is there, but we seem to forget it when making financial decisions. Example: fast food meal. In my mind, this should be no more than $5-7, so you can imagine how I feel about paying $20 for just a vegan burger in Cabo! The Big Mac price doubled from 2004-2022. I can *know* that and still feel like it's too expensive.

Part of this is that we eat fast food very rarely, so the sticker shock hits us in larger increments. But I just find my unrealistic expectations interesting. I think it would make financial decisions easier if I could just view current prices more realistically.

Last night I ate at a local Chinese restaurant that has been in the Fort Worth area for 20-30 years. I had a veggie/rice dish and ate until full and still had extra to take home. After tip, the bill was less than $20 and I was pleasantly surprised!

 

[JoeWras]

One psychological note: I have noticed that myself (and *especially* DW) tend to compare prices based on some long-gone price that will probably never be seen again. We are somewhat aware that inflation exists, but we often act like it doesn't, or shouldn't. We grate at current prices, but our comparison point is often 10-20 years ago. We *know* that inflation is there, but we seem to forget it when making financial decisions. Example: fast food meal. In my mind, this should be no more than $5-7, so you can imagine how I feel about paying $20 for just a vegan burger in Cabo! The Big Mac price doubled from 2004-2022. I can *know* that and still feel like it's too expensive.

There's a new TV commercial out. Can't remember what it is for, but the punch line is a guy is in the fast food line and the clerk says, "That will be $20." And he says, "Oh, I'm only paying for my own meal."

Great joke, had me laughing pretty hard.

 

[JoeWras]

I'm still stuck on "change back from my dollar".

 

[Andre1969]

About the furthest back that sticks in my mind was my college days, in the late 80s/early 90s. You could usually get a Big Mac value meal, or similar meal (sandwich, regular fries, and soda) for $2.99 plus tax. So here in Maryland, $3.14 at the time.

Every once in awhile, I'll see someone post an old McDonald's menu from around 1972 on Facebook or wherever, and lament about the prices. First thing I tend to do is suggest putting those prices into an inflation calculator. And then I mention the $700 Zenith and $5000 Impala my grandparents bought that year. In today's dollars, that's like $5154 for the tv and $36816 for the Impala.

At a quick glance, the Impala doesn't look bad, considering the price of modern cars. And when you consider there is no car these days even remotely in the class of a '72 Impala. About the closest equivalent today would be a full-sized crew cab pickup with one of those locking covers on the bed.

But, it really doesn't cost much more money to make a larger car...that's just raw materials. The things that add up are all the R&D, and safety/performance/emissions/comfort/convenience features, etc. When you take all that into account, I think new cars are relatively cheap, from an historical perspective. I think part of the problem is that for the longest time, in the 2000s and 2010s, it seemed like car prices stayed relatively cheap, and didn't even keep up with inflation. So compared to, say, 4-5 years ago, cars might feel expensive, but compared to just about any other timeframe, I'd say they're a relative bargain.

Used car prices are a different story, though. I got a wakeup call to that a few years back when a friend of mine bought a used 2011 Kia Sportage with about 80,000 miles on it, for $11,000. Granted, it was in good shape, but from my perspective, a 10 year old car is usually something you give to your kids, or a family member who needs a car. Or, something you pick up for a few thousand bucks, at best. But $11K?!

 

[CaptTom]

The psychological angle about our perceptions of inflation is an interesting one.

On the one hand, I remember prices I paid as a kid. Like the "change back from your dollar" ads. or 10-cent candy bars. I find it sort of humorous how much more things are today, but I'm not offended by it.

On the other hand is the one- or two-year window. Before COVID, prices were pretty stable for a long time. I got used to paying, for example, 99 cents for a package of store-brand hot dog or hamburger rolls. Then they shot up to between $2 and $3. This feels like an affront. I could list a hundred other things which have doubled or tripled in price in the past few years. At one point I was angry enough to go home and bake my own hamburger rolls.

Eventually, there's resignation. It usually hits when I notice a sale price, or even a regular price which has fallen back a little from its peak. I grabbed the first pack of hamburger rolls I saw for $1.50. Yeah, it's still a 50% increase, but it felt like a bargain.

 

[pb4uski]

DW and I stopped in for a drink and a couple apps in St. Armand's Circle last night. I had a Bud Light and she had a glass of wine which were each happy hour priced at $4, very reasonable. But our apps, middle neck clams in a white wine and butter broth and a spinach, cheese avocado dip were $16 each! Over $50 with tax and tip for two drinks and two apps.

IIRC, a couple years ago apps were more like $8-12.

It all adds up, real quick. That said, we're on the home stretch now and don't mind the cost other than it is psychologically annoying.

 

[Andre1969]

One thing I'm surprised about, with regards to groceries, is how milk prices still seem fairly low. Now, I buy from Aldi, which is the bottom of the barrel when it comes to prices, but I think a gallon of 2% is around $2.71. I'll also buy their chocolate, which has been around $1.52 lately for a half-gallon.

Now, maybe my memory's fuzzy, but I can remember milk being like $2.50-3.00/gal back in the late 1980's/early 90's, which is about when I would have started buying it myself, rather than my parents. Sometimes I'll be in a regular grocery store, and even there, it's usually around $3.99/gal for the store brand.

Anyway, $3.99 today is a rough equivalent to $1.69 back in 1990. Although now that I just ran that number, it's making me second guess myself. For some reason, that $1.69 gave me a bit of deja vu. So I'm wondering if it was really $1.69 back then, and I was thinking $2.69?

I googled around, and did find a site that mentioned milk was an average of $2.48/gal in 1995, but that's the furthest back it goes. https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/milk-prices-adjusted-for-inflation/

 

[JoeWras]

But our apps, middle neck clams in a white wine and butter broth and a spinach, cheese avocado dip were $16 each! Over $50 with tax and tip for two drinks and two apps.

IIRC, a couple years ago apps were more like $8-12.

We generally don't do apps. I do see the menu and noticed the big increases. Another very bad trend are menus not listing prices for soda. Then you get a $3.50 bill.

Soda, alcohol, apps and desert are the biggest money makers. Most require very little prep. Many deserts are bought premade and precut. Serving beverages does not require a culinary degree. Apps are underwhelming in many restaurants with an overwhelming price.

 

[pb4uski]

We generally don't either, but in this case we were thirsty and slightly hungry and over 20 minutes from home so we used to apps for a "light" dinner.

We rarely do apps if we are also ordering an entree, other than perhaps one app for the table to share.

A friend was telling us that she ordered a vodka drink of some sort and then asked for ice because she likes a lot of ice and when she got the bill there was a separate item of $2.50 for extra ice! I said that if that happened to me that I would never go their again and she said that was her intent.

 

[Fermion]

Milk is heavily subsidized but still it should go up with inflation.

For us, the big thing when eating out now is comparing it to cooking the same thing at home. If I have to wait in a line at a drive though to get a $7 quarter pounder with cheese, I start thinking about how it wouldn't take much longer to buy a pound of Angus 90% lean ground beef at $6.29 and make four hamburgers.

By the same calculation though, if I want Bibimbap, it is a pain in the ### to collect and cook all the different ingredients and fire up the stone bowls (we do have those) vs paying $11 to $13.

 

[Chuckanut]

Good news - National Restaurant Association shows that price inflation *rate* is pretty much back down to normal after a spike last year:

https://restaurant.org/research-and...sts-notebook/economic-indicators/menu-prices/

One psychological note: I have noticed that myself (and *especially* DW) tend to compare prices based on some long-gone price that will probably never be seen again. We are somewhat aware that inflation exists, but we often act like it doesn't, or shouldn't. We grate at current prices, but our comparison point is often 10-20 years ago. We *know* that inflation is there, but we seem to forget it when making financial decisions. Example: fast food meal. In my mind, this should be no more than $5-7, so you can imagine how I feel about paying $20 for just a vegan burger in Cabo! The Big Mac price doubled from 2004-2022. I can *know* that and still feel like it's too expensive.

Part of this is that we eat fast food very rarely, so the sticker shock hits us in larger increments. But I just find my unrealistic expectations interesting. I think it would make financial decisions easier if I could just view current prices more realistically.

Last night I ate at a local Chinese restaurant that has been in the Fort Worth area for 20-30 years. I had a veggie/rice dish and ate until full and still had extra to take home. After tip, the bill was less than $20 and I was pleasantly surprised!

IMO, it’s not just the size of the price increases but the fact that they occurred over a rather short (one year) length of time. When an 8 once block of cream cheese goes from $1.29 to $2.89 in a year or so, that makes an impression.

 

[Chuckanut]

It used to be that I could go to a local restaurant, order a beer or glass of wine at HH prices (4-6$ max) and then graze on an assortment of small appetizers left out. Usually the appetizers were left over goodies from the previous night’s dinner or today’s lunch, but they were still tasty.

Today, appetizers are priced such that over half are in double digits. We used to order off the senior menu, but that also has been raised to quite high levels. I realize I live in a high COL area, but the servers and other restaurant staff already make $15+ an hour plus tips. At some point regardless of how much they deserve a living wage, the comparison with cooking at home becomes to big to stomach. Pun intended.

 

[JoeWras]

A friend was telling us that she ordered a vodka drink of some sort and then asked for ice because she likes a lot of ice and when she got the bill there was a separate item of $2.50 for extra ice! I said that if that happened to me that I would never go their again and she said that was her intent.

That's just nuts!

I already have a few restaurants on my no-fly-zone list due to the credit card surcharge.

 

[Sunset]

OP here. Correct. I cited tourism dining and lodging. People who by definition do not have the option to eat each meal at home but do have the option for how long they stay. They seem to be cutting back on both and maybe the lodging component alone would've more clearly illustrated the question than the more subtle restaurant input.

My point was wondering if tourism--largely a discretionary expense-- might be a valid early indicator of a slowing economy. The town in question still has no shortage of tourists and always had higher than average prices, but the underlying overall spending is markedly off from previous years.

In my view, it's not so much about restaurant prices but more about people (subconsciously perhaps?) being more aware of how much they're spending. Maybe they're hearing the rumble of thunder?

A good thing IMO.

Recently I got an email from Viking, offering some cruises at 1/2 price.
Now these are pretty genuine 1/2 price, I could literally book with them next year and pay double.

I have never gotten an email from them about soon to sail cruises that are so cheap !
It made me think, that perhaps travel is cooling off, and they miscalculated the demand.

I was excited so I looked up airfare via Google to fly across the country and was surprised at how cheap it would be to fly in a couple of weeks, just few hundred each.

Maybe I was lucky in looking ? or maybe extremely discretionary spending has taken a dive.

 

[Andre1969]

Milk is heavily subsidized but still it should go up with inflation.

For us, the big thing when eating out now is comparing it to cooking the same thing at home. If I have to wait in a line at a drive though to get a $7 quarter pounder with cheese, I start thinking about how it wouldn't take much longer to buy a pound of Angus 90% lean ground beef at $6.29 and make four hamburgers.

By the same calculation though, if I want Bibimbap, it is a pain in the ### to collect and cook all the different ingredients and fire up the stone bowls (we do have those) vs paying $11 to $13.

The other night, my housemate fried up a few burgers on the Foreman grill. these were the pre-packaged ones that you get frozen, so they're not exactly high-end quality. Still, they tasted pretty good, and I'm sure that even with throwing in the buns, pickles, ketchup, mustard, and whatever seasoning he put on the patties, they cost a mere fraction of what a fast food burger would have.

I don't eat out very often, so when I do, I usually get a dose of sticker shock. I remember a few months ago, stopping off at a Burger King and got two sandwiches off of their 2 for $7 special. I was thinking it was a good deal, but that stuff actually tasted cheap, and I was still hungry afterward.

Another time, soon after, I stopped at a Wendys, and got two of their sandwiches, just by themselves...no drink or fries. It managed to come out to something like $16-17! But, I'll admit those sandwiches were delicious. They actually tasted, dare I say, high quality? I can't remember what I got, but I do remember one filled me up, and I saved the other for later. I think one of them was a Dave's Triple or whatever they call it.

Still, if I think too deeply on it, it kinda blows me away...$16-17, for two Wendy's sandwiches?!

 

[Car-Guy]

Well we had to drive into Houston yesterday and was surprised at how cheap gas was. $2.79 and $2.89 all over the place. Even saw one station for $2.65. We stopped for lunch at one of those "combo" gas stations/McDonald's. Filled up the truck for $2.79 a gallon and got two regular burgers "no fries" and two small drinks for $18.xx.

I went inside at McDonald's to place my order. Must have been 8 or 10 people working in there but only one lady taking orders with a line of about 7 or 8 folks waiting. And it was clear she didn't want to be there. Oh, and no problem getting gas, it was self serve.

 

[Andre1969]

Back in college, I worked for awhile as a waiter for Denny's, from 1989-1990. At the time, I remember there was nothing on the menu that broke the $10.00 barrier. The closest was a steak dinner, at $9.99. It came with two sides, choice of soup or salad, and garlic bread or dinner roll.

I just checked their online menu to see what an equivalent is today. They have a 13-ounce T-bone steak dinner, served with two sides and a dinner roll, for $18.49. That $9.99 back in 1990 would be $23.53 today. But, you lose the soup/salad. However, a side salad these days is $4.49, so throw that in, and it gets you to $22.98.

The salad they show in the picture looks a lot smaller than the ones we used to serve, though. It looks more like the one we served with the senior citizens' meals, then a regular dinner salad. Also, I can't remember the steak size back in 1989-90, but I'd guess it was comparable?

 

[Closet_Gamer]

There are price changes working their way through the system on things that lots of people buy/use. It has to catch up at some point.

The streaming wars, for example, are ending and all of those companies are cranking prices. Combined with password sharing a lot of homes will either have to drop services or move money from somewhere else to cover it.

I think the UberEats/DoorDash phenomenon has to shrink now that those companies can no longer use free money to grow.

Some things are generational and my nieces/nephews do view having people bring them things as a sort of constitutional right, but the economics are just nonsensical. How do you justify paying a fee of several dollars to bring you two big macs?

Something like Instacart where you can save 30-45 minutes of shopping time can make sense, particularly for busy people raising kids. But 5 mins to run to the local McDs or sandwich shop? Especially when it can be ready for you when you arrive because you ordered on an app. Doesn't make a lot of sense.