I still recall the promotion "Change Back From Your Dollar." Don't know if that was McD or BK. One of those two.
Heck, I'll go back further than that, McD's advertisement was: "47 cents for a three-course meal". (Burger, fries, shake.)
I still recall the promotion "Change Back From Your Dollar." Don't know if that was McD or BK. One of those two.
I hope you're right. I tend to be more cynical and view the typical consumer having a " worry about tomorrow, tomorrow and live for today" mindset.
Trip down memory lane.
It is a very cool report. Never seen it before.I love that report, it has so much data. The 3Q ‘23 report can be found here
It’s counterintuitive, but increased debt is a positive sign. People take on more auto and credit card debt when they have a positive view of the future and save more when they fear bad times ahead.
Delinquencies have ticked up a bit but are still below pre-pandemic levels, and credit scores are holding, which means low credit borrowers are not increasing their share of new credit.
When I first started going to McD's back in the early 60's (when I learned to drive) it was $0.50 for all that! HBs were $0.15, fries were $0.10 and a coke was $0.10 - for a large! Heh, heh, change back from your half-dollar if you bought the small coke!
I clearly remember those days during the early 60s
DW (then DGF) and I used to jump in the car at lunch in high school and race over to the McD's. A dollar bought us all the food we could eat on the way back to school. We did the same but not MDs. There was an old "food truck" that had hamburgers, hot dogs, and fries. I think the old cook changed the grease out once a year whether it needed it or not.
It’s counterintuitive, but increased debt is a positive sign. People take on more auto and credit card debt when they have a positive view of the future and save more when they fear bad times ahead.
That could be true for credit card debt, but I'm wondering if auto loan debt is higher, simply because of expensive vehicles and high interest rates? I know I helped out some, with inflating those numbers when I bought my Charger. Even with $10K down, that sucker's $777.17/mo for 72 months! My credit is about as good as it gets, yet my interest rate was still something like 8.04%.
The last time I financed a vehicle, in 2012, the interest rate was only something like 3.49%. And back in late 1999, I got 0.9%. This ain't Kansas anymore, Toto!
I would think this would include only the principle payment on mortgage; interest and taxes are expenses. A lot of mortgages were (re)refinanced during the low interest rate years so the principle payments would be very low for those mortgages. We also know that a lot people (over 50%?) don't even participate in retirement plans. Average balance for retirement plans in 2020 was 30K in 2020 so you can imagine how much people actually contribute annually. I think 5% number makes a perfect sense.Wait, 5% is the average spending on retirement contributions plus mortgage payments? That sounds way too low.
That could be true for credit card debt, but I'm wondering if auto loan debt is higher, simply because of expensive vehicles and high interest rates?
Not sure which chart you are referring to. Looking at mortgages, the share of lower credit rate mortgages is much higher than now, and the credit scores at mortgage originations is higher now across the board. Credit scores for auto loans are also higher now than in ‘06-‘08.It is a very cool report. Never seen it before.
I get your counterintuitive point. But I also want to focus on late '06 and '07 on that graph. Was the turn in the slope the canary in the coal mine that looked toward the upcoming crisis that was fully evident in late '08?
So similarly, is the change in slope this year predictive of something coming down the road?
Maybe, maybe not. I don't know.
Not sure which chart you are referring to.