Old Microbiologist
Recycles dryer sheets
European choices
There are a bunch of issues starting with the European Commission thinking they are a federal system. This is not in fact the legal case and it is not the United States of Europe despite their beliefs otherwise.
We live in Hungary which is part of the EU but is always more or less a fly in the ointment. Hungary has a separate gas supply coming via Turkstream through Serbia and they negotiated excellent prices using a long-term contract with Gazprom. Hungary pays for both gas and oil using Rubles so no actual problems. All the remaining EU countries abolished long-term contracts and also implemented a spot market price that pushed prices to insane levels. The suicidal sanctions implemented to punish Russia (which backfired badly) are an example of the extremely short-sighted and poor thought process by the unelected leadership of the EU. BTW, the EU is not in any way a democracy.
The latest genius idea is that countries getting gas, such as Hungary, must provide 20% of their supply to the remaining EU countries that banned gas and oil or refuse to pay in Rubles. BTW, it was Ukraine that shut off the Yamal pipeline supplying Europe along with Poland who is getting reverse flow gas from Germany who doesn't have it to give. No other countries can supply the EU and the US despite promises, is unable to provide sufficient LNG for Europe.
The turbines sent to Canada for repair still are lost in transit and there are 4 more turbines needing repair so NorthStream 1 is running at 20% capacity. Germany could fix this but their leadership is so incompetent it boggles the mind. There is still a perfectly good pipeline demanded by Germany and not by Russia, that can run at a moment's notice. However, it is the US demanding that the European countries stop using Russian gas and the EU political class eagerly follows the US orders.
The upshot is Russia doesn't care and is fine with divorcing itself from Europe entirely. They have finally realized that all of the EU is Russiaphobic and that this will never change. Hence a turn to the East. Inside Russia, things are fine more or less. They are making more money than ever because of the spot market prices implemented stupidly by the EU.
That brings in the oil problem. The oil mix delivered by Russia is a particular blend that is extremely stable in consistency. Refineries are tuned to precise oil consistency and cannot easily or cheaply switch to another source hence why the US is importing Russia at a rate never seen before despite rhetoric to the opposite. This is to replace the oil we stupidly embargoed from Venezuela which is pretty close to Russian oil. BTW the last refinery built in the US was in 1971. It costs billions and a minimum of 6 months to change over to a new source of oil.
In the meantime, India and China are buying Russian oil at a nice discount and selling it to Europe for a massive profit. The only people losing are the European citizens who cannot replace the EU commissioners as they are not elected in the first place. I foresee a disaster in the polls after this winter kills a lot of Europeans because of stupid EU Commission decisions. The EU Parliamentarians are all appointed by their respective governments so the backlash will end up back on the leaders of each EU member country. Many will be replaced soon if they don't reverse the sanctions. It is already happening though so I am not particularly worried. Political animals are pretty good at surviving. Really, it is a matter of selling this back to the subjects so as to not look weak.
Here in Hungary our gasoline and diesel are capped at 380 HUF (roughly 1.20 Euros) and people with foreign license plates must pay European prices not Hungarian prices. The EU is enraged over this. This was implemented to help Hungarian citizens. Hungary is also 100% self-sufficient for electricity production and is cutting off from the EU grid. Hungary is also a minor oil and gas producing country and roughly 30% of domestic use comes from Hungarian source. They have cut the oil pipeline going to Austria as an example. But, Hungary is also implementing an emergency tax on both gas and electricity. Our electricity is doubling to roughly 20 cents a kW but the gas is going up 700%. I have simply turned off our gas entirely, switched to electric heating using our A/C systems that can run as heat pumps and will use our fireplace more. I have enough wood for 3 winters. For the past 3 years the temperature barely dropped below freezing for 2 days or so.
Because of the gay rights issues (which the Hungarian people are adamantly against) Hungary is being punished by the EU Commission and hasn't received any money from the EU now for 2 years. Frankly, I don't see any logical reason for Hungary to stay in the EU if things don't change. The EU wants to kick them out anyway so maybe things will improve.
There are a bunch of issues starting with the European Commission thinking they are a federal system. This is not in fact the legal case and it is not the United States of Europe despite their beliefs otherwise.
We live in Hungary which is part of the EU but is always more or less a fly in the ointment. Hungary has a separate gas supply coming via Turkstream through Serbia and they negotiated excellent prices using a long-term contract with Gazprom. Hungary pays for both gas and oil using Rubles so no actual problems. All the remaining EU countries abolished long-term contracts and also implemented a spot market price that pushed prices to insane levels. The suicidal sanctions implemented to punish Russia (which backfired badly) are an example of the extremely short-sighted and poor thought process by the unelected leadership of the EU. BTW, the EU is not in any way a democracy.
The latest genius idea is that countries getting gas, such as Hungary, must provide 20% of their supply to the remaining EU countries that banned gas and oil or refuse to pay in Rubles. BTW, it was Ukraine that shut off the Yamal pipeline supplying Europe along with Poland who is getting reverse flow gas from Germany who doesn't have it to give. No other countries can supply the EU and the US despite promises, is unable to provide sufficient LNG for Europe.
The turbines sent to Canada for repair still are lost in transit and there are 4 more turbines needing repair so NorthStream 1 is running at 20% capacity. Germany could fix this but their leadership is so incompetent it boggles the mind. There is still a perfectly good pipeline demanded by Germany and not by Russia, that can run at a moment's notice. However, it is the US demanding that the European countries stop using Russian gas and the EU political class eagerly follows the US orders.
The upshot is Russia doesn't care and is fine with divorcing itself from Europe entirely. They have finally realized that all of the EU is Russiaphobic and that this will never change. Hence a turn to the East. Inside Russia, things are fine more or less. They are making more money than ever because of the spot market prices implemented stupidly by the EU.
That brings in the oil problem. The oil mix delivered by Russia is a particular blend that is extremely stable in consistency. Refineries are tuned to precise oil consistency and cannot easily or cheaply switch to another source hence why the US is importing Russia at a rate never seen before despite rhetoric to the opposite. This is to replace the oil we stupidly embargoed from Venezuela which is pretty close to Russian oil. BTW the last refinery built in the US was in 1971. It costs billions and a minimum of 6 months to change over to a new source of oil.
In the meantime, India and China are buying Russian oil at a nice discount and selling it to Europe for a massive profit. The only people losing are the European citizens who cannot replace the EU commissioners as they are not elected in the first place. I foresee a disaster in the polls after this winter kills a lot of Europeans because of stupid EU Commission decisions. The EU Parliamentarians are all appointed by their respective governments so the backlash will end up back on the leaders of each EU member country. Many will be replaced soon if they don't reverse the sanctions. It is already happening though so I am not particularly worried. Political animals are pretty good at surviving. Really, it is a matter of selling this back to the subjects so as to not look weak.
Here in Hungary our gasoline and diesel are capped at 380 HUF (roughly 1.20 Euros) and people with foreign license plates must pay European prices not Hungarian prices. The EU is enraged over this. This was implemented to help Hungarian citizens. Hungary is also 100% self-sufficient for electricity production and is cutting off from the EU grid. Hungary is also a minor oil and gas producing country and roughly 30% of domestic use comes from Hungarian source. They have cut the oil pipeline going to Austria as an example. But, Hungary is also implementing an emergency tax on both gas and electricity. Our electricity is doubling to roughly 20 cents a kW but the gas is going up 700%. I have simply turned off our gas entirely, switched to electric heating using our A/C systems that can run as heat pumps and will use our fireplace more. I have enough wood for 3 winters. For the past 3 years the temperature barely dropped below freezing for 2 days or so.
Because of the gay rights issues (which the Hungarian people are adamantly against) Hungary is being punished by the EU Commission and hasn't received any money from the EU now for 2 years. Frankly, I don't see any logical reason for Hungary to stay in the EU if things don't change. The EU wants to kick them out anyway so maybe things will improve.
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