Even Wal-Mart Can't Escape Inflation

[Koolau]

I just noticed that Target stock price is 57% of its high back 1 year ago. Man, that hurts.

TGT's valuation looks less expensive than WMT.

I sold TGT at 152.5 back on 9/2020, due to a call option getting assigned. I never bought it back, and it climbed as high as 269. Now, it's 153, back to where I sold.

Time to watch this thing, and to buy it back or sell some puts.

Oh wait! Didn't I say I should not be buying stocks or selling puts yet? Darn, it's hard not to do bottom fishing.

Heh, heh, let us know when we reach the bottom, will ya?

 

[Chuckanut]

Anyway, time for me to go to Costco before the container of cheese hits the price of a gallon of regular gasoline.

The above won't happen for quite a while. I just paid over $5 a gallon for the first time in my life. So the carton of cheese will stay cheaper for quite some time. I think.

I saw $5 a gallon in CA last year and managed to avoid it by escaping across the boarder into Oregon at the last minute. Even better is a local reporter who mentioned that when my state's new carbon tax goes into effect in 2023 that will add anywhere from 15 to 50 cents to a gallon of gas. Then there is the extra $75 a year on my tabs because I drive a hybrid. Lucky me.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

WMT's all-time high is 160. At 100, it will have lost 37.5%. This is quite within the realm of a recession.

When that happens, WMT will have a lot of company. One will not have enough money with so many bargains to chose from.

THIS.

It is tempting to try to catch the bottom. It is a fools errand, yet I keep trying to do it. A wash out will effect just about all securities, and there will be plenty of bargains to sift through. If WMT becomes a buy, so will TGT and vice versa.

I bought a bit of WMT around $122, but also need to remind myself that I bought my original WMT position much lower. The trend has not been our friend, and sometimes the best thing to do is to WAIT. (Sigh, I wish I was better at listening to my own advice.)

 

[NW-Bound]

Heh, heh, let us know when we reach the bottom, will ya?

I will not be able to spot the exact bottom, but so far it does not feel like it.

There has to be a lot of groaning, teeth gnashing, and headbanging.

So far, just some consternation.

 

[NW-Bound]

Applied Materials (AMAT), one of my semi equipment holdings, reported earning shortfalls due to supply constraints yesterday. Share price gets pummeled today, and is currently at 61% of its high. Aye, aye, aye...

Nothing gets spared.

 

[GenXguy]

Everything at our "Dollar Tree" stores here jumped from $1 to $1.25 overnight not too long ago.

Same here, although not everything. Some things are still $1.

 

[JJpop]

My company's chairman, who is a big time guy worth ~10 digits, and whose firm owns a LOT of companies thinks this inflationary period is going to last over 5 years, and likely 10, especially in Europe but also to a lesser degree in the US. Three primary factors - huge increase in money supply, this oil shock with Russia/Ukraine will end up worse than the oil embargo and take over 5 years to settle, and decoupling of the west from China will all 3 combine to cause very high inflation for a very long period. He thinks inflation is just getting started. He thinks companies that haven't started raising prices a lot are way behind the 8 ball and may never catch up.

He may be right. He may be wrong, just like every other person trying to figure it out.
There are a lot of other bigger time guys and women who would disagree.

I am not being rude, it seems like you believe this guy has some special knowledge because he is rich and in business. He doesn’t.

 

[Chuckanut]

He may be right. He may be wrong, just like every other person trying to figure it out.

There are a lot of other bigger time guys and women who would disagree.



I am not being rude, it seems like you believe this guy has some special knowledge because he is rich and in business. He doesn’t.

“But when you’re rich they think you really know” - Fiddler on the Roof

 

[Magus]

He may be right. He may be wrong, just like every other person trying to figure it out.
There are a lot of other bigger time guys and women who would disagree.

I am not being rude, it seems like you believe this guy has some special knowledge because he is rich and in business. He doesn’t.

1) As someone who has worked as head of investor for relations for 3 public companies in the last 12 years now, I can tell you what Chairmans and CEOs will tell you in private is a lot different than what they will say in public, especially in situations like this.

2) Him having deep access to over a dozen major companies he/they own with all of their CEOs plus deep access to other folks like him actually does give him far more special knowledge than you or I ever will. If it didn't, he'd have to be an idiot, which he is most definitely not.

3) I never follow anyone blindly but he has not been in the team transient inflation side for over a year, which also mirrored my thinking, and so far has been correct. The team transient and inflation is peaking have been wrong over and over again. I saw a graph yesterday of where economist were forecasting inflation every couple months for the following 3 years over the last year and they have been comically bad.

4) The challenges to inflation that he states are indeed accurate.

 

[ownyourfuture]

Once people's cards are all maxed and they can't afford the weekly grocery trip, watch out.

Does it really matter anymore ?
I'm not trying to be sarcastic, but I figure the government would just step in & either offer direct payments, or tax breaks related to food for those who qualify.

For instance, the baby formula shortage. I can't find the article now, but I'm sure earlier today there was an article on Yahoo finance concerning new legislation that would give families who qualified, a 2022 tax break specifically related to baby formula.

 

[Koolau]

Does it really matter anymore ?
I'm not trying to be sarcastic, but I figure the government would just step in & either offer direct payments, or tax breaks related to food for those who qualify.

For instance, the baby formula shortage. I can't find the article now, but I'm sure earlier today there was an article on Yahoo finance concerning new legislation that would give families who qualified, a 2022 tax break specifically related to baby formula.

I'm blown away watching the celebrations on TV when a single C-17 brings in 50 tons or whatever of formula. Imagine how much it costs per pound. IIRC one news story I saw suggested a load would feed 9000 babies (but the stuff was actually going to hospitals - not grocery shelves.) Houston, we have a problem. YMMV