Flatten the Curve

[cyber888]

Stay at home so we can “Flatten the Curve”. If hospitals are at overcapacity, people will die. The slower the virus spreads, the more our healthcare system’s capacity can manage the virus spread over time. The economist in me likes to use these curve charts

 

[Freedom56]

Stay at home so we can “Flatten the Curve”. If hospitals are at overcapacity, people will die. The slower the virus spreads, the more our healthcare system’s capacity can manage the virus spread over time. The economist in me likes to use these curve charts

They should shut everything down for 30 days except emergency services, but people will not listen. Those massive crowds at Costco and other places are spreading the virus.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Look at the difference between the effect the flu had in Philadelphia and St. Louis in 1918. Philly held a parade, and St. Louis shut down. There's a good explanation of the history at https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/

 

[Lewis Clark]

They should shut everything down for 30 days except emergency services, but people will not listen. Those massive crowds at Costco and other places are spreading the virus.

I like the idea and have been saying similar things at home. Most folks probably don't have enough supplies to last 30 days at home, despite the recent hording. And many in small homes don't have space to store it if they wanted to.

 

[NW-Bound]

Look at the difference between the effect the flu had in Philadelphia and St. Louis in 1918. Philly held a parade, and St. Louis shut down. There's a good explanation of the history at https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/

Spain just learned this lesson. The country is now in a complete lockdown, but read what happened recently.

Just last weekend, about 120,000 people marched through downtown Madrid to celebrate International Women’s Day. Some 60,000 soccer fans filled one of the city’s largest stadiums. And 9,000 supporters of Vox, Spain’s third-largest party, gathered inside a former bullring.

And Vox party leader Santiago Abascal has tested positive for coronavirus.

 

[DenverGuy42]

my wife and I went on a 2 week vacation to Hawaii on Feb 19th, this was barely a news story way back then - just starting to be something. The news built up greatly over the two weeks we were there. We returned on Wed March 4th at night.

The next morning, we made a costco run (we already had plenty of toilet paper - we did a paper run in early january to stock our condo downtown and cabin in the mountains - we did not contribute to the run on TP!) and got what we could. Friday we did a grocery/wine store run and took all that stuff up to the cabin. On Saturday morning, we packed up the kitties and moved to the mountains for the duration.

We are looking forward to Wednesday, two weeks after our return, when we can say "ok, the trip and two plane rides didn't give it to us" - and then again to Saturday when we can say "ok, shopping was ok too".

we are good to go for many weeks, just waiting this out. Mail order meds rock by the way - we have our pills out for many months.

on the downside, our net worth is back to what it was in late December 2018 (a week before she retired to join me). Disappointing, but at least when I put it that way to her - it made us feel a little bit better. We basically lived 2019 for 'free' - that is the optimistic way to look at it.

On the bright side - our spending will be way down this month and next Netflix and chill as they say.

but yes, we are self isolating to do our part, and to try to miss out on getting it. My wifes father is doing the same - we are in touch every day, but he is locked up in his house as well.

 

[folivier]

My opinion is we will see a spike before the numbers start to go down. My reasoning is that with all of the kids, of all ages, out of school it will take a while for people to get a handle on self isolating. And if you're in self quarantine for whatever reason and have contact with another person during that time then you start all over again.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

A great simulator of the effect of flattening the curve: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

[garyt]

They should shut everything down for 30 days except emergency services, but people will not listen. Those massive crowds at Costco and other places are spreading the virus.

I tend to agree, it's the only way to get the ignorant to go along. The Governor here in Mi just banned any gatherings of 250 or more. So what do the casinos do? Close down? Heck no, they're erecting temporary walls to "limit" areas to 250 or less! One is just using chairs to cordon off areas. It's ridiculous and I hope the Governor shuts them down. But on the casino FB page, while lots of people are calling for them to shut down there are plenty of idiots thanking them for remaining open "Because I need something to do" and "I'm not afraid of the virus and if you are, stay home." Totally clueless people.

 

[Sunny]

Edit: Nevermind, this morning interviews Dr. Fauci gives sorta answers my question. https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...y-a-few-months-until-life-gets-back-to-normal

What was also interesting is the graph cyber888 and others use is a bit misleading....the area under the flattened curve may not, hopefully, will not, be as large as under the peak curve. Likewise, the extended time may not be as long as shown in the graphs they use.

Original: Flattening the curve has been the goal for awhile now, Dr. Fauci has mentioned it several times during the press conferences Pence gives.

What I've not heard or read though, what timeframe are we talking about? Unchecked the peak with hundreds of millions infected is May? But checked, the government forces a slowdown somehow, are we then talking August for the worst to be over?

I'm sure nobody can predict, Dr. Fauci likely won't. But they have to have some sort of educated guess.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

What was also interesting is the graph cyber888 and others use is a bit misleading....the area under the flattened curve may not, hopefully, will not, be as large as under the peak curve. Likewise, the extended time may not be as long as shown in the graphs they use.

The important part is the dotted line that says "Healthcare system capacity". The more we can stay under that, the better, so yes, hitting the peak later would be preferable, because it also means the peak should be lower. Whether there are more or fewer cases in either scenario really is not nearly as big of a public health concern.

 

[Gumby]

Precisely. With proper treatment, perhaps some victims in severe respiratory distress who would otherwise die can be saved. If the facilities are overwhelmed, they may not receive that treatment.

 

[gerntz]

Very good article imo about getting R value - infection rate - below 1 so that fewer are infected than already infected.


https://nationalpost.com/opinion/co...ifying-but-the-long-term-outlook-looks-bright

 

[aaronc879]

I am avoiding large gatherings of all kinds but I do have to fullfill the remaining dates on my work contract so I have to go to work on the 17th and 4 more times over the next 8 weeks. Some people have no choice but to go to work all day or night 5 days a week or more. Blue collar workers can't work from home and they usually don't get sick days and have strict attendance policies. Just do what you can for your particular situation, not everyone will be able to do the same thing.

 

[USGrant1962]

Very good article imo about getting R value - infection rate - below 1 so that fewer are infected than already infected.


https://nationalpost.com/opinion/co...ifying-but-the-long-term-outlook-looks-bright

Good article. The paragraph that grabbed me:

Each disease, or strain of a disease, has an approximate R₀ that is “natural” to it — a propensity for infectivity. The initial R₀ for the new virus in China appears to have been between two and three: it is a little more aggressive than regular influenza, but classic infectious menaces like smallpox and polio start at five or higher. Measles is in the teens.

Earlier in the article he explained that R is basically the number of people who catch it from each infected person.

 

[Midpack]

They should shut everything down for 30 days except emergency services, but people will not listen. Those massive crowds at Costco and other places are spreading the virus.

+1000. It would reduce infections, reduce corollary $ damage and return us to normal quicker - but Americans don’t have the discipline or common sense to listen. Even if state, local and federal gubmits took that route it wouldn’t work. Everyone thinks they’re an expert on things they know nothing about these days.

 

[Kwirk]

I tend to agree, it's the only way to get the ignorant to go along. The Governor here in Mi just banned any gatherings of 250 or more. So what do the casinos do? Close down? Heck no, they're erecting temporary walls to "limit" areas to 250 or less! One is just using chairs to cordon off areas. It's ridiculous and I hope the Governor shuts them down. But on the casino FB page, while lots of people are calling for them to shut down there are plenty of idiots thanking them for remaining open "Because I need something to do" and "I'm not afraid of the virus and if you are, stay home." Totally clueless people.

Some people just LOVE to gamble, even if it's with their lives (and yours).

 

[Midpack]

A great simulator of the effect of flattening the curve: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

+1. Outstanding read!

 

[Midpack]

What I've not heard or read though, what timeframe are we talking about? Unchecked the peak with hundreds of millions infected is May? But checked, the government forces a slowdown somehow, are we then talking August for the worst to be over?

I'm sure nobody can predict, Dr. Fauci likely won't. But they have to have some sort of educated guess.

Fauci was on MTP today and said it doesn't matter whether we let it run (spike) or flatten curve, we'll only know in retrospect. We do know flattening the curve will improve our access to HC resources if not reduce overall infections and deaths. As for guesses I've heard from actual pandemic experts, up to 6 months.

We may have eaten in our last restaurant for a while last night. We're planning on carry out for now (we'd like to support fav restaurants so they're still around when this is over), and might resort to home cooked only before it's over.

 

[Fermion]

Six months out of business would end most non chain restaurants. Let us hope it is not that long of a curve.

 

[easysurfer]

They should shut everything down for 30 days except emergency services, but people will not listen. Those massive crowds at Costco and other places are spreading the virus.

There always will be those who suddenly have a desire to go out in a blizzard when forecasters say to stay home.

I was thinking the same about now grocery stores and stores like Costco being the gathering places . Not to mention the giant crowds at the international line at airports .

Given those above, the optimist in me still thinks the social distancing plan will work out.

 

[Bir48die]

We can all talk about staying at home for 30 days but the supply chains need to be moving products. Especially for fresh food. That means plant workers, distribution pickers, truckers, grocery workers. On and on. So, then maybe all non-essential workers? Then that needs to be a national decision.

I don't take people as "ignorant" like some of you claim. I take them as anxiety ridden and willing to take chances to not run out of what they deem important.

Many of us are "lucky" in the fact that we are retired and look to others to run the day to day operation of business and the country. I understand very clearly the "curve". Long term it is better to take the economic hit for 30 days but considering we are 70% consumer based this would be a tall task.

 

[Midpack]

We can all talk about staying at home for 30 days but the supply chains need to be moving products. Especially for fresh food. That means plant workers, distribution pickers, truckers, grocery workers. On and on. So, then maybe all non-essential workers? Then that needs to be a national decision.

I don't take people as "ignorant" like some of you claim. I take them as anxiety ridden and willing to take chances to not run out of what they deem important.

Many of us are "lucky" in the fact that we are retired and look to others to run the day to day operation of business and the country. I understand very clearly the "curve". Long term it is better to take the economic hit for 30 days but considering we are 70% consumer based this would be a tall task.

Go to your local grocery or big box stores, more crowded than ever in the past few days. I went to Target and Whole Foods yesterday, the most crowded I have ever seen either, the longest lines I've ever seen in either. Stores are having to put limits on some items, because many people are buying way more than they need. And there are big St Pats parties at bars and restaurants this weekend (and Tuesday), all packed that I've seen. The reports I've seen say restaurant traffic is down 20%, so 80% aren't deterred so far.

I agree with your assessment of closing all non-essential businesses as practical, and that it needs to be a national decision - with a fixed time frame, or the runs on goods will get MUCH worse.

 

[easysurfer]

Since so many regular group gatherings (NCAA, NBA, NHL, MLB) are cancelled or postponed I would like to see if the traders on the NYSE trading floor will practice social distancing or not. The traders are know to get crunched in together and screaming on the top their lungs (think of all the airborne particles ). If the traders don't practice social distancing, then there's a big mixed message that okay for one group to get a pass and not others.

 

[Kwirk]

...If the traders don't practice social distancing...

then many of them will soon be calling out sick. I can't think of a more ideal situation for spreading this disease.