Florida living

[Badger]

What are the chances for another one? You should be golden - except for the insurance prices!

Isn't there something in Statistics that says regardless of flipping a coin and turning up heads doesn't change the 50/50 chance of the next flip?

Cheers!

 

[Buckeye]

What are the chances for another one? You should be golden - except for the insurance prices!

We ended up moving to OH for w*rk. The neighbors thought we had lost our minds when we started hurriedly taking in all our patio furniture at the first major storm that approached. Hurricane PTSD!?

 

[Buckeye]

Isn't there something in Statistics that says regardless of flipping a coin and turning up heads doesn't change the 50/50 chance of the next flip?

Cheers!

Absolutely!

 

[Route246]

I'm born and raised in NorCal and have lived with the threat of earthquakes my entire life. I suspect in Florida you live with the same sort of threat from adverse weather events and just learn to deal with it. Earthquakes are scary because they happen without warning. Weather is scary because you have a lot of warning.

We have insurance but it doesn't really count for much with the high deductible. We are also "self-insured" for whatever out-of-pocket is necessary as we can afford to rebuild without too much difficulty although it will be financially annoying it will not change our quality of life.

That said, there is a huge elephant in the room that nobody seems to talk about, that being climate change. Is it so politically charged that the population is going to let the insurance companies leave without some effort to correct the major root cause of why they are leaving? It may be too late and we are past the peak as sea levels rise but to pretend it is not contributing to this undesirable behavior from insurance companies seems to be political malpractice. The insurance companies vote with their feet.

 

[JoeWras]

You're right. It's political, and that results in dishonest discussion.

 

[Koolau]

Isn't there something in Statistics that says regardless of flipping a coin and turning up heads doesn't change the 50/50 chance of the next flip?

Cheers!

Actually, you are right. But it FEELS like you ought to be safer!

 

[Koolau]

I'm born and raised in NorCal and have lived with the threat of earthquakes my entire life. I suspect in Florida you live with the same sort of threat from adverse weather events and just learn to deal with it. Earthquakes are scary because they happen without warning. Weather is scary because you have a lot of warning.

We have insurance but it doesn't really count for much with the high deductible. We are also "self-insured" for whatever out-of-pocket is necessary as we can afford to rebuild without too much difficulty although it will be financially annoying it will not change our quality of life.

That said, there is a huge elephant in the room that nobody seems to talk about, that being climate change. Is it so politically charged that the population is going to let the insurance companies leave without some effort to correct the major root cause of why they are leaving? It may be too late and we are past the peak as sea levels rise but to pretend it is not contributing to this undesirable behavior from insurance companies seems to be political malpractice. The insurance companies vote with their feet.

Here in the heartland, it's tornados.

I don't discount global warming (or whatever we're calling it today) but I reject the premise that a given storm or cluster of storms CAN BE laid at the feet of global (whatever.) The subtle differences must be looked at over much longer periods of time than a couple of months in which several storms happen to hit. (Returning you now...)

 

[Gumby]

All weather phenomena - clouds, wind, rain, tornados, hurricanes, etc. - are caused by unequal solar heating causing temperature gradients. Generally, the more unequal the heating, the stronger the temperature gradient and the stronger the wind, tornado, hurricane etc. Anything that puts extra heat energy into the system has the potential to cause more unequal heating and therefore stronger and more frequent storms. So, you're right, you cant say any one particular storm is caused by global warming, but you can say that when there are more frequent and stronger storms, that is caused by global warming.

 

[Koolau]

All weather phenomena - clouds, wind, rain, tornados, hurricanes, etc. - are caused by unequal solar heating causing temperature gradients. Generally, the more unequal the heating, the stronger the temperature gradient and the stronger the wind, tornado, hurricane etc. Anything that puts extra heat energy into the system has the potential to cause more unequal heating and therefore stronger and more frequent storms. So, you're right, you cant say any one particular storm is caused by global warming, but you can say that when there are more frequent and stronger storms, that is caused by global warming.

I don't think this is a good thing to argue about, so let's just say I only partially agree with you and leave it at that. Probably too far from Florida Living anyway though YMMV.

 

[FiveDriver]

A simple google search produces the following temperature data from NOAA --

When have the top 10 warmest years on record worldwide occurred?

The 10-warmest years on record have all occurred since 2010, with the last nine years (2014-2022) among the 10-warmest years. The 2022 Northern Hemisphere surface temperature was also the sixth highest in the 143-year record at 1.98 degrees F (1.10 degrees C) above average.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is the outfit that tracks this data, they know their stuff. Their Global Temperature Charts are eye-opening. Similar temperature data is available from NASA, The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the Weather Channel.

 

[bigcmagor]

I used to look forward to living in our SW Florida home year-round. After spending 10 days there this month, I'm no longer so inclined. Jeeze it was hot.

 

[Koolau]

A simple google search produces the following temperature data from NOAA --

When have the top 10 warmest years on record worldwide occurred?

The 10-warmest years on record have all occurred since 2010, with the last nine years (2014-2022) among the 10-warmest years. The 2022 Northern Hemisphere surface temperature was also the sixth highest in the 143-year record at 1.98 degrees F (1.10 degrees C) above average.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is the outfit that tracks this data, they know their stuff. Their Global Temperature Charts are eye-opening. Similar temperature data is available from NASA, The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the Weather Channel.

When were the most hurricanes?

Here is an interesting site on hurricane strikes (from NOAA.)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

 

[Dtail]

When were the most hurricanes?

Here is an interesting site on hurricane strikes (from NOAA.)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

Okay so no global warming. Every single person I have spoken to who has lived in Florida from the 80's/90's through 2023 has insisted it is warmer now.
Used to wear sweaters in Apr/Oct at times. Not anymore.

 

[aja8888]

Okay so no global warming. Every single person I have spoken to who has lived in Florida from the 80's/90's through 2023 has insisted it is warmer now.
Used to wear sweaters in Apr/Oct at times. Not anymore.

When I was at Orlando AFB in the Spring/Summer of 1965, it was hot. I don't recall ever wearing a sweater then, especially when we went to Coco or Daytona beach.

 

[Dtail]

When I was at Orlando AFB in the Spring/Summer of 1965, it was hot. I don't recall ever wearing a sweater then, especially when we went to Coco or Daytona beach.

"At times" is the key term. I have been in Florida since 2017 and have never remotely needed a sweater during Apr or Oct.
Some of the comments I solicited were from climate deniers, who still are as such, but still agree it is just warmer here now.

 

[Koolau]

Okay so no global warming. Every single person I have spoken to who has lived in Florida from the 80's/90's through 2023 has insisted it is warmer now.
Used to wear sweaters in Apr/Oct at times. Not anymore.

Heh, heh, never said no global warming. Any fool knows it's warmer. Many questions surround that obvious observation. We'll bring on Porky if we go down that road too far. Just kinda want a little scientific perspective as some literally think the next big storm will conclusively verify that global warming is to blame - just like they've already concluded from the LAST big storm that global warming is to blame. That's not the scientific method. Looking at that data from NOAA - frankly, to me (without doing any stats) says - (wait for it) - nothing. In 100 years - nothing stands out. Maybe some rigorous massage of the data will help the data suggest a conclusion, but my eye sees nothing different in 100 years.

One other little tidbit - just for grins. What is the single biggest cause of global warming in the past, say 30 years?

 

[Dtail]

Heh, heh, never said no global warming. Any fool knows it's warmer. Many questions surround that obvious observation. We'll bring on Porky if we go down that road too far. Just kinda want a little scientific perspective as some literally think the next big storm will conclusively verify that global warming is to blame - just like they've already concluded from the LAST big storm that global warming is to blame. That's not the scientific method. Looking at that data from NOAA - frankly, to me (without doing any stats) says - (wait for it) - nothing. In 100 years - nothing stands out. Maybe some rigorous massage of the data will help the data suggest a conclusion, but my eye sees nothing different in 100 years.

One other little tidbit - just for grins. What is the single biggest cause of global warming in the past, say 30 years?

Your reference is just to hurricanes, which are not directly correlated with warmer temperatures only.

 

[aja8888]

Heh, heh, never said no global warming. Any fool knows it's warmer. Many questions surround that obvious observation. We'll bring on Porky if we go down that road too far. Just kinda want a little scientific perspective as some literally think the next big storm will conclusively verify that global warming is to blame - just like they've already concluded from the LAST big storm that global warming is to blame. That's not the scientific method. Looking at that data from NOAA - frankly, to me (without doing any stats) says - (wait for it) - nothing. In 100 years - nothing stands out. Maybe some rigorous massage of the data will help the data suggest a conclusion, but my eye sees nothing different in 100 years.

One other little tidbit - just for grins. What is the single biggest cause of global warming in the past, say 30 years?

If you want to read a bit about elevating the earth's temperature, Look up The Great Dying (The Permian–Triassic (P–T, P–Tr) extinction event (PTME). Seems like volcanos in Siberia erupted for about two million years (!!) to cause this "global warming". Man had nothing to do with this!

 

[jimbee]

Florida is still a PITA.

 

[Pellice]

You're right. It's political, and that results in dishonest discussion.

But how could it NOT be political? It involves enormous amounts of money, from taxpayers and from private enterprises. It requires forecasting of the future, given mortgage, planning, and budget requirements, without having absolute foreknowledge of the future. We must proceed on best estimates - and therein lies the political.

Or not proceed. The very easiest thing to do, the thing that in fact is being done, is to NOT proceed, but rather, to wait, to commission studies, to issue guidelines and recommendations, but not to codify or enforce them. *That* is baked into the cake. And yes, that is political too.

 

[FiveDriver]

So where does the money come from when we have to clean up these disasters ?

There was a heavy rain event in the Northeast last week.....the cleanup bill is estimated in multiple Billions.

Doing 'nothing' is not a wise choice.

 

[folivier]

But all of these studies, etc. cost money. Big money.
But to say that there is global warming is to not recognize that we don't know diddly squat about what happened in the past. Sure we have some records going back a few hundred years but anything beyond is unproven science. Yes some scientists have theories about climate change over the earth's history but they're just theories. No way to prove them. Just as there's no way to prove that mankind has contributed to global warming.
And we don't know diddly squat about what the future will hold.
Don't forget the affect sunspot activity has on our weather. Can we control that?

 

[FiveDriver]

When were the most hurricanes?

Here is an interesting site on hurricane strikes (from NOAA.)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

I see an awful lot of Cat 3 Hurricanes on that NOAA table.

Having lived thru Cat 3 Hurricane Sandy in 2012.....I am not looking to repeat that experience anytime in the future. That memory does dissuade us from moving to Florida without giving it serious consideration.

 

[RAE]

Okay so no global warming. Every single person I have spoken to who has lived in Florida from the 80's/90's through 2023 has insisted it is warmer now.
Used to wear sweaters in Apr/Oct at times. Not anymore.

There's no doubt it is warmer now - all you have to do to confirm that is to look at the temperature data trends over the last 20+ years. Climate change is real, folks, whether you believe it or not. It is not a political issue, it's science. And it is going to get worse. We will probably look back at this period 20 years from now and wish we had still temperatures that cool during the summer. I have a house in Florida, where I spend November through early April, but I can't live there the rest of the year. I don't want to spend my summers sitting in the A/C comfort of the house. And it is getting hotter all the time up here, too........

 

[Lewis Clark]

But all of these studies, etc. cost money. Big money.
But to say that there is global warming is to not recognize that we don't know diddly squat about what happened in the past. Sure we have some records going back a few hundred years but anything beyond is unproven science. Yes some scientists have theories about climate change over the earth's history but they're just theories. No way to prove them. Just as there's no way to prove that mankind has contributed to global warming.
And we don't know diddly squat about what the future will hold.
Don't forget the affect sunspot activity has on our weather. Can we control that?

There are ways to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that human activity is the major cause of climate change over the past 150 years. The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change and related work have documented this. Unfortunately, some people just dismiss any evidence whether or not they understand any of the science.