How distant is your FIRE date?

[Geoffrey]

July 2008. I had been entertaining various scenerios for extending that date, particularly because I would be eligible for Government-subsidized health insurance if I hung on for an additional year. But, I was reminded once again this morning how unpredicatable life is when, on a whim, I ran a google search on the name of an old high school sweetheart and pulled up her obituary -- she was only 51. Life is too damn precious to waste any more of it doing something I don't really find rewarding. So, I'm making a firm commitment to pull the plug in July 2008. I would probably seriously consider an earlier date but for the fact that I have 20 weeks of leave on the books . . . so the next 10 months should be relatively painless. I'll be 59 next July. Pulling the plug will be my birthday present to myself.

 

[Chonder]

Soon!

I have done some fairly strategizing/calculations and have decided that I can FIRE at 43 years old in 2012. The DW is 11 years younger and will w*rk another 5-10 years as needed to round out the details. She LIKES to w*rk!!!
I will be the homemaker, handyman, gardner, chef, nanny, and putter around making some hobby income myself.

 

[ylm23]

earliest will be 2026, when DH is 50 and gets his pension. Many factors may extend it ... I don't see much of anything that would shorten it.

dog - our plan is to live off the pension (and gov't subsidized health care!) and taxable savings until 59 1/2. Also, there will likely be some income generation from things DH and I like to do that we don't consider w*rk. Our home will be paid off by then and we plan to garden and raise some small livestock so our expenses will be low ... until 2026 we're living all over the world on the taxpayer's dime so we may wear out the travel bug by retirement time, so won't have that expense.

 

[Cbear1883]

Oh DEAR...I've got ALL of you beat! Our anticipated retirement date is 1st quarter of 2035. DH will be 58, I'll be 56...DH needs to stay till then to get full pension so that's the "plan" however, it might change depending on wear and tear (he's a mailman). Might be worth it for him to leave if his knees or back get bad. Like Geoffrey pointed out, life is too short...

As for me, we've talked about me getting out a few years earlier, perhaps doing something part time that I really love...but as you can see, we have a long time to think about it! It will also depend on whether we decide to have children. It's early...DH makes fun of me, but tells me he secretly is happy I'm so obsessed with doing what we have to do today to make sure we get what we want tomorrow.

 

[Rich_by_the_Bay]

Some people don't do this by date, but rather by assets accumulated or reduction of one-time expenses (e.g. college tuition, house paid off, etc.). In some ways, that's less arbitrary than a fixed, distant date though I imagine it would get frustrating when the market stalls.

Personally I use a hybrid: it will not be any later than a certain date almost regardless of my financial situation (haven't quite picked that date yet ), but possibly sooner if the savings grow faster than expected.

 

[boutros]

FI should happen around 2023 I will be 45. It requires an 8% ROR and holding the line on lifestyle creep. The ROR seems to matter +or- 3 years. The big factor is lbym. Ever since making that calculation I have not been as concerned about the market as I have been about expenses. Hopefully I will still enjoy my work and will be able to feather the nest for a couple of years before retiring. Even better DW may enjoy her's

 

[GatorBuzz]

Good lord willing and the creek don't rise, 2027. I'll be 52, wife will be 49 and she'lll work another 5-7 years.

Man, 2027 is a looooong way away. Good thing I like my life in spite of my j*b.

 

[Cbear1883]

Good lord willing and the creek don't rise, 2027. I'll be 52, wife will be 49 and she'lll work another 5-7 years.

Man, 2027 is a looooong way away. Good thing I like my life in spite of my j*b.

I feel your pain

 

[bow-tie]

I really, really want to be done by age 40, which is early 2016. I know well that fools plan and the gods laugh, and that life can really change. But when I think about getting the hell outta the cube farm, age 40 is always in the back of my mind.

I'll have to utilize after-tax savings and 72t withdrawls to make it happen.

 

[CuppaJoe]

I'm waivering between April 2008 and April 2009 after collecting the previous year's KEOGH contribution which is consistently 25% of gross income, business is currently thriving so no worries there.

I could probably get by retiring now as I'm sitting on 30 times current expenses including a small pension annuity which kicks in at age 62 and SS which I would take as soon as I retire.

I'm going for a later date because I may want to increase expenses soon with higher housing expenses. I don't worry about health insurance, I could cover that, expect it to be about $500/month until age 65. I'm 60 now.

 

[laurence]

2029, on my 55th birthday. It's too far off to think about too much. It will be built on a 50% pension, about $1,000,000 in 2007 dollars in investments, and a paid off house.

 

[kaudrey]

2Cor - I am 38, my planned retirement date is 6/30/2021 - I will be 52. That date gives me my 30 years in the federal gov't - so full pension at 57.

Also, my spreadsheet goes out until I am 90, which is in 2059.

However, if my investments do better than expected (my projections are very conservative), then I may go earlier - I can plug in scenarios where I receive a reduced pension if I only stick around until I am 47 or whatever.

Karen

 

[DblDoc]

an Excel spreadsheet that goes out to about 2045 and has a couple dozen different columns of data.

Mainly I just want to see if I'm the biggest loser on this site ;-).

2Cor521

Mine just got to about a dozen - and now I have to start factoring in the taxes/withdrawal etc...

Spring of 2018 so far but Medical remains the biggest unkown and will dictate it

 

[tricky88]

2022? I don't even know what the weather will be like Tuesday.

I guess my date is around 2022 as well. I certainly keep tight records on what I have now, how much I can save and so forth - and of course I'm planning as if things will go along as they are. But I'm a little confused that so many people here - especially in the "young dreamers" category - believe they can predict what their finances (and lifestyle) will be 15 years from now.

I don't need to rattle off the things that could sour such a FIRE deal (or speed the day forward), but just on my own there are many uncertainties: My job, my wife's job; neither are things we can count on being there forever, not owning a house (L.A.: 1000 sq ft house is still about $680,000), both sets of parents getting older, may need to relocate out of the city, may have to take jobs that pay less, health insurance may skyrocket, we may get quite sick or injured, may need to replace our cars, may not be able to maintain our current savings rate...

Then there's the one I fully expect - the market returns will revert to the mean. I don't think it unlikely we will see a market that will go sideways for a few years and might not even keep pace with the inflation rate. And that's not even considering other big political problems the US might encounter.

By nature I can be a bit of a pessimist, but it doesn't stop me for planning and saving and investing. Still, I'm curious: Do many of you in your 30s at least acknowledge that with all the FIRE calculators in the world, there are way too many unknown quantities out there to pin down an exact day 15 years into the future?

 

[Texas2step]

August, 2011. I will be 50 and will have been at the same company for 25 years. Electable for full retirement benefits. Including a decent pension. However if I can not convince my wife to retire and move I will wait a couple of years. If I can't move away from here I don't want to be retired. If I must live in Hell I may as well work.

2

 

[kaudrey]

I guess my date is around 2022 as well. I certainly keep tight records on what I have now, how much I can save and so forth - and of course I'm planning as if things will go along as they are. But I'm a little confused that so many people here - especially in the "young dreamers" category - believe they can predict what their finances (and lifestyle) will be 15 years from now.

I don't need to rattle off the things that could sour such a FIRE deal (or speed the day forward), but just on my own there are many uncertainties: My job, my wife's job; neither are things we can count on being there forever, not owning a house (L.A.: 1000 sq ft house is still about $680,000), both sets of parents getting older, may need to relocate out of the city, may have to take jobs that pay less, health insurance may skyrocket, we may get quite sick or injured, may need to replace our cars, may not be able to maintain our current savings rate...

Then there's the one I fully expect - the market returns will revert to the mean. I don't think it unlikely we will see a market that will go sideways for a few years and might not even keep pace with the inflation rate. And that's not even considering other big political problems the US might encounter.

By nature I can be a bit of a pessimist, but it doesn't stop me for planning and saving and investing. Still, I'm curious: Do many of you in your 30s at least acknowledge that with all the FIRE calculators in the world, there are way too many unknown quantities out there to pin down an exact day 15 years into the future?

Tricky - I'm 38, and I'll admit it!

I picked my day because it's around the time I have 30 years in the gov't, which is when I can get my full pension (deferred by 5 years). But of course it's just a starting point - I could conceivably go 5 years early, or wait 5 years longer.

My assumptions are very conservative in an attempt to create a kind of "worst case", as follows:

I work for the gov't, so it is unlikely I'll lose my job. I assume 3% raise each year, which means I don't think I'll ever get a promotion. But I probably will at some point.

I use 5% investment returns each year, and inflate my expenses by 3% a year - except health care, which I inflate 6% a year.

The current figures suggest people on Medicare will spend $200K on healthcare from 65 until death. Starting when I am 65 and ending when I am 95, I put in amounts that total $400K (65 is 27 years from now for me).

I only plug is 1/2 of my projected SS, and don't start until 67. I assume my mortgage will be paid off - which means I can stay here, or sell the place and move somewhere cheaper.

As to some other variables - I am divorced. A new spouse or long-term partner could change everthing. My parents have enough of their own money that they won't need mine.

The spreadsheet is a fluid document that gets adjusted every year to reflect how my investments actually did, and with actual vs. projected expenses.

 

[DblDoc]

Still, I'm curious: Do many of you in your 30s at least acknowledge that with all the FIRE calculators in the world, there are way too many unknown quantities out there to pin down an exact day 15 years into the future?

2 thoughts:

1) Even for those planning 1-2 years into the future there are unknowns that could severely impact their target date - Bad Bear Market comes to mind

2) If you don't plan and try to make your plan work the likelihood of ER at any time is much less likely.

 

[SecondCor521]

Still, I'm curious: Do many of you in your 30s at least acknowledge that with all the FIRE calculators in the world, there are way too many unknown quantities out there to pin down an exact day 15 years into the future?

Absolutely. I am quite sure my FIRE date will not be October 26, 2022 or whatever I wrote in the original post.

I follow an approach very similar to kaudrey (Hi Karen!). I have my "current data", which is all my account balances and the amount of money I spent the last six months according to Quicken. I then have my assumptions about inflation, savings rates, investment return rates, etc. I then feed all of that into a giant spreadsheet that spits out what my retirement date would be given that initial data and assumptions.

As I update my data (every few days) or change my assumptions (which happens far less frequently), I can monitor my FIRE date. From this I can do several things:

1. Do what if? scenarios -- what if I receive a $10K windfall? What if I spend 10% less? What if my personal inflation rate is 1% less?
2. Test my assumptions. If my assumptions are correct, then my calculated FIRE date over time should remain constant. If my assumptions are too optimistic, then over time my FIRE date would move out.
3. Do some general planning. I can tell (roughly) when I might need to do better estate planning. I can tell (roughly) how much longer I need to work at this job (too long) and whether that amount of time plus my current satisfaction level means I should look at other jobs.

One small difference in my case compared with kaudrey's is that my date is arbitrarily whenever I project hitting a 4% withdrawal rate; I have no additional constraints to be concerned about like a pension or years of service.

At this point, though, my FIRE date is always a whole number of months away just because that is the granularity I chose for my spreadsheet.

2Cor521

 

[Ronstar]

July 3, 2011 - when my wife turns 57 and max's her pension. As for me, I started cutting back to 4 work days per week last week, and will continue to cut back gradually until 2011 when I pull the plug for good.

 

[dessert]

For me, first quarter 2010. That gives me enough time to figure what I'll retire to......gotta have a plan.

 

[tpcooper]

I believe the furthest out posted so far is 2035. I am going July 1, 2037. I will be 53. I could potentially go as early as 2034 though at 50.

I just started working in June. I have a government job with a pension (30 yrs for full, but I can count saved sick leave, thus the potential to retire earlier). For the three months I have worked I have been able to save 32% of my income. I don't see rising expenses outside of inflation though, so I don't see why I can't keep that up. Of course I only make about $39,000 so that isn't a lot of money.

- Patrick

 

[wmackey]

April 1st 2018 unless DW changes her mind about how long she wants to work. We could actually go around 2013 but she loves what she does.

Wade

 

[Meadbh]

Planned RE date is somewhere between fall 2012 (when I will be 55) and summer 2013. Have done detailed financial calculations. Even if there is a bear market, this will work. The only thing that would cause me to postpone RE: being involved in a really interesting project. Might consider part time consulting for a year or two, just for the fun of it, after RE. Strictly icing on the cake. OTOH, if I have health problems, RE could be earlier. Maybe use my disability insurance.

 

[ziggy29]

Probably about ten years. I adjust my "FIRE clock" in my signature as events change the projection -- market performance, the amount I put into retirement savings, changes in the health insurance situation, et cetera, and as time passes and I get closer to retirement age.

 

[CompoundInterestFan]

Do many of you in your 30s at least acknowledge that with all the FIRE calculators in the world, there are way too many unknown quantities out there to pin down an exact day 15 years into the future?

Absolutely. That's why when I get too focused on money, I have to step back and remind myself that there's waaaay too much that could happen between now and then to get worked up about. I work in high-tech, so I fully acknowledge that industry wages, if the industry still exists in its present form, may be much lower 15-20 years from now than they are now.

I also try to remind myself that it doesn't matter how much money I've saved--if I don't take care of myself between now and retirement, I'll just be a miserable person who's well-off. Also, I try not to put my security and well-being into money. Despite the best efforts, even a large amount of money can vanish pretty quickly, and if I've put all my security into that, then I'm pretty screwed. I figure it's better to put my security into being content and as happy as possible in my present situation, not waiting for some future date at which point all my problems will be solved (easier said than done sometimes).

However, that doesn't mean I shouldn't plan for it.