I've lost track, as I always had a moving target, that was constantly being massaged as I got older, gained experience, and saw the stock market do scary things.
I think the first goal I set was back in 1999, when I was 29. At that point, I had just finished paying off a bad divorce, got my credit back together, got a few raises, refinanced the condo, etc, and thought I was sitting pretty. I figured that if I had $1M, and no mortgage debt, I'd be ready to pull the plug.
But, over the years, inflation, as low as it was, chewed away at that figure. 2000 and 2001 were very volatile years where I pushed to new highs, but come December 31 was still down overall. And 2002 just seemed to be a bad year overall.
Then, housing prices started shooting up, but I figured that wouldn't factor in much, because even if I bought high, I'd also be selling high. By 2005-2006, I started focusing on age 46, 2016. April 1, 2016 to be exact. My birthday is April 2. Even though my birthday fell on a Saturday that year so I'd be off work anyway, I was looking forward to waking up on my birthday, knowing I'd never have to go back to the office again. I thought 45 was a nice, round number to retire at, but 46 would give me a built-in "one more year". Also, I had a spreadsheet that calculated, at the rate I was going, that I should break $1M with room to spare in 2016.
Then, the Great Recession hit, and I lost half of everything. At that point, I figured I'd just see where the economy went, before focusing too much on anything. Plus, it was still far enough away that I figured anything could happen. I recovered pretty quickly from the Great Recession though, so I started focusing on 2016 again.
But then, in 2011, I went on a trip to Aruba. And I liked it. That was the first real vacation I had been on in ages. I also started realizing that I didn't want to live out my retirement days where I currently live, but I still want to stay somewhat in the DC area, so my housing costs might be more than I think in retirement.
At some point, I did come to the realization that $1M really wasn't enough, even with a paid off mortgage. BTW, I ended up hitting $1M briefly in 2014, about a year and a half ahead of plan. And I think, as I got closer to $1M, I started realizing it wasn't so exotic, after all.
I think it was around 2013 I started to shift my thinking that age 50 would be a more reasonable goal, and the spreadsheet predicted I could have close to $2M by then. FireCalc also predicted that I'd have a pretty good chance of survival of living off of $50K per year, if I retired at 50. At the time, I was living off of nowhere near that amount, after taxes were taken out, so $50k seemed like a lot of money.
In early 2015 I ran another calculation, that said I'd have a good chance of making it on $60K per year, if I retired at 50. But then the economy flattened out. So, I started figuring okay, no later than 51, unless the economy is totally shot. And if I wasn't quite where I'd want to be, I'd just take my chances, rough it a bit here and there, etc.
Then, in 2016, a chain of events that would have a pretty big impact started to unfold. First, my Grandfather passed away less than a month from his 102nd birthday. My Dad, who had been taking care of Granddad, had let his own health go, but wouldn't tell anybody, and he passed away in March of this year, 3 days after his 71st birthday. It turns out they had both saved up a lot more than I had ever imagined. Both estates are still going through probate. However, the majority of assets have cleared, and the last time I added everything up, my total investible assets are around $1.8M. I do still have a mortgage, but it's only around $63K.
Anyway, now that I'm closing in on that $2M mark, I hate to say it, I do occasionally question whether even that is still enough. But, I think that's just OMY syndrome setting in. FireCalc says I could retire in 2018 and have a 95.7% chance of making it on $80K per year, and a 94.9% chance of making it on $100K, if I wait until 2021, at age 51. So if I really wanted to, I could pull the plug right now.
Realistically though, I think I'm still going to wait a bit. I've tried pre-qualifying for a mortgage, and it's been more complicated than I thought...even with the assets I have. And once I retire, I'd need a bigger down payment. So, I think I want to work at least until I have a new house secured. And, when I do go out, I want it to be in the early part of the year, so I can do another Roth, go out right after raises kick in so my leave gets paid out at the higher rate, get my spring bonus, etc. Plus, I look at spring as a time of re-birth, so I think that's a great time to retire.
I'm also burning out at work though. So regardless of what happens, I think I'm still looking at no later than age 50...unless the market really tanks. Anyway, thanks for reading...hope this wasn't *too* much to wade through!
